Learning Bayesian Statistics

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You know I’m a big fan of everything physics. So when I heard that Bayesian stats was especially useful in quantum physics, I had to make an episode about it!

You’ll hear from Chris Ferrie, an Associate Professor at the Centre for Quantum Software and Information of the University of Technology Sydney. Chris also has a foot in industry, as a co-founder of Eigensystems, an Australian start-up with a mission to democratize access to quantum computing. 

Of course, we talked about why Bayesian stats are helpful in quantum physics research, and about the burning challenges in this line of research.

But Chris is also a renowned author — in addition to writing Bayesian Probability for Babies, he is the author of Quantum Physics for Babies and Quantum Bullsh*t: How to Ruin Your Life With Advice from Quantum Physics. So we ended up talking about science communication, science education, and a shocking revelation about Ant Man…

A big thank you to one of my best Patrons, Stefan Lorenz, for recommending me an episode with Chris!

Our theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work at https://bababrinkman.com/ !

Thank you to my Patrons for making this episode possible!

Yusuke Saito, Avi Bryant, Ero Carrera, Giuliano Cruz, Tim Gasser, James Wade, Tradd Salvo, William Benton, James Ahloy, Robin Taylor,, Chad Scherrer, Zwelithini Tunyiswa, Bertrand Wilden, James Thompson, Stephen Oates, Gian Luca Di Tanna, Jack Wells, Matthew Maldonado, Ian Costley, Ally Salim, Larry Gill, Ian Moran, Paul Oreto, Colin Caprani, Colin Carroll, Nathaniel Burbank, Michael Osthege, Rémi Louf, Clive Edelsten, Henri Wallen, Hugo Botha, Vinh Nguyen, Marcin Elantkowski, Adam C. Smith, Will Kurt, Andrew Moskowitz, Hector Munoz, Marco Gorelli, Simon Kessell, Bradley Rode, Patrick Kelley, Rick Anderson, Casper de Bruin, Philippe Labonde, Michael Hankin, Cameron Smith, Tomáš Frýda, Ryan Wesslen, Andreas Netti, Riley King, Yoshiyuki Hamajima, Sven De Maeyer, Michael DeCrescenzo, Fergal M, Mason Yahr, Naoya Kanai, Steven Rowland, Aubrey Clayton, Jeannine Sue, Omri Har Shemesh, Scott Anthony Robson, Robert Yolken, Or Duek, Pavel Dusek, Paul Cox, Andreas Kröpelin, Raphaël R, Nicolas Rode, Gabriel Stechschulte, Arkady, Kurt TeKolste, Gergely Juhasz, Marcus Nölke, Maggi Mackintosh, Grant Pezzolesi, Avram Aelony, Joshua Meehl, Javier Sabio, Kristian Higgins, Alex Jones, Gregorio Aguilar, Matt Rosinski, Bart Trudeau, Luis Fonseca, Dante Gates, Matt Niccolls, Maksim Kuznecov, Michael Thomas, Luke Gorrie and Cory Kiser.

Visit https://www.patreon.com/learnbayesstats to unlock exclusive Bayesian swag 😉

Takeaways:

  • Quantum computing has the potential to revolutionize various industries, but it requires specialized tools and education to fully harness its power.
  • Bayesian inference plays a crucial role in understanding and solving problems in quantum physics, particularly in parameter estimation and model building.
  • The field of quantum physics faces challenges in experimental design, data collection, and maintaining the state of isolated quantum systems.
  • There is a need for specialized software that can accommodate the unique constraints and models in quantum physics, allowing for more efficient and accurate analysis.
  • Common misconceptions in quantum physics include the idea of superposition as being in two places at once and the misinterpretation of quantum experiments. Misconceptions in quantum physics and Bayesian probability are common and can be addressed through clear explanations and analogies.
  • Communicating scientific concepts to the general public requires bridging the gap between scientific papers and mainstream media.
  • Simplifying complex topics for young minds involves providing relatable examples, analogies, and categories.
  • Studying mathematics is essential for a deeper understanding of quantum physics and statistics.
  • Taking risks and making mistakes is encouraged in the early stages of a scientific career.

Links from the show:

Transcript

This is an automatic transcript and may therefore contain errors. Please get in touch if you’re willing to correct them.

Transcript
Speaker:

Let me show you how to be a good lazy and

change your predictions You know I'm a big

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fan of everything physics, so when I heard

that Bayesian stats was especially useful

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in quantum physics, I had to make an

episode about it.

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You'll hear from Chris Ferry, an associate

professor at the Center for Quantum

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Software and Information of the University

of Technology, Sydney.

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Chris also has a foot in industry, as a

co-founder of Eigen Systems, an Australian

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startup

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with a mission to democratize access to

quantum computing.

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Of course, we talked about why Bayesian

stats are helpful in quantum physics

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research, and about the burning challenges

in this line of research, but Chris is

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also a renowned author.

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In addition to writing Bayesian

Probability for Babies, he's the author of

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Quantum Physics for Babies and Quantum

Bullshit, How to Ruin Your Life with

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Advice from Quantum Physics.

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So we ended up talking about science

communication, science education, and a

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shocking revelation.

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about Ant-Man.

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A big thank you to one of my best patrons,

Stefan Lawrence, for recommending me an

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episode with Chris.

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This is Learning Asians Statistics,

episode 99, recorded January 15, 2024.

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Hello my dear Asians, I want to share an

exciting webinar I have coming up on March

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1st with Nathaniel Ford.

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fellow Pimc Cardiff and causal inference

expert.

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In this modeling webinar, Nathaniel will

explore the world of causal inference and

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how propensity scores can be a powerful

tool.

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We will learn how to estimate propensity

scores and use them to tackle selection

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bias in our analysis.

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If that sounds like fun, go to topmate.io

slash Alex underscore and Dora to secure

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your seat.

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And of course, if you're a patron of the

show, you get bonuses.

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submitting questions in advance, early

access to the recordings, etc.

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You are my favorite listeners after all.

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Okay, now back to the show.

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It's Ferry.

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Welcome to Learning Bayesian Statistics.

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Thanks for having me.

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Yeah, thanks a lot for taking the time.

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I'm personally super psyched to have you

on.

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And also, I know a lot of my patrons will

be

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very happy to see you and hear you on the

show because they have asked me for a

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little while now if that was possible to

have you on the show and well apparently

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nothing is impossible in the baysan world

so really thanks a lot for taking the time

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Chris and actually let's start by talking

about what you're doing these days right

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how would you define the work you're doing

nowadays?

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and what are the topics that you're

particularly interested in.

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Sure.

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Yeah.

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So I'm an associate professor at the

University of Technology, Sydney.

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I'm also a co-founder of a tech startup

company.

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And both of these kind of have transformed

me, like at least hopefully temporarily

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into more of a manager than a researcher.

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So the business is developing small,

affordable desktop quantum emulators,

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trying to kind of beef up, enhance, enable

new forms of teaching in quantum

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programming, which doesn't really exist.

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And as a professor, I supervise a handful

of graduate students postdocs.

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I made the mistake, maybe this is like

advice for early career researchers, of

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allowing them all to select their own

projects.

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So I'm supervising students who are all

doing separate projects, all chosen by

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themselves.

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That means that they get to dive deep into

their projects, but I kind of remain at

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the surface level.

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If I'd done it over again, I'd do it

differently with maybe.

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fewer students and working on topics that

really interest me.

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But unfortunately, that doesn't usually

generate much funding because I'm

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interested in the foundations of quantum

physics, and that's more metaphysics or

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you might even say philosophy.

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But it's not bad.

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I get to help young students advance their

careers and learn about new interesting

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topics and there's always time in the

future to eventually settle down.

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Yeah, for sure.

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I didn't know you were also working on an

EdTech company.

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Yeah, you want to tell us a bit more about

that?

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That sounds like fun.

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Well, I'm an elder millennial.

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I was born in the really early eighties,

so that means I have to have side gigs.

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And yeah, it was something that we were

interested in doing at the university

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quantum computing at the university.

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And what I realized was it's a very

abstract thing.

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And it's usually taught from the context

of physics and physics students are happy

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to just be, you know, do what they're

told.

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But computer science students are a little

bit more challenging because they want to

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see something tangible and they want to

build things and see the results of what

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they build.

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So we thought about building this kind of

thing that they can interact with.

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And we made some prototypes and it worked

really well in the context of teaching the

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teaching that I do.

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And we thought, well, and everyone we

talked to in our field about this said

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that they wanted one too.

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And then that kind of led us to the idea

of starting a company.

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So we're at the stage of, of we have, we

have customers, we've built prototypes, we

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have customers, uh, all around the world.

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And, uh, we'll make a big announcement

actually at an event called quantum

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Australia and.

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that will, and then people can pre-order

them, hopefully for shipping later this

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year.

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And it's, so the product is a small

desktop quantum emulator.

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Think about like the relationship between

3D printers that are in classrooms and

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commercial industrial scale 3D printers.

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So our small classroom thing is emulating

the real thing.

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So,

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but it does everything that you need to do

in the context of teaching.

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And it'll come with a full kit to teach

quantum programming to hopefully

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eventually down to the high school and

elementary school levels.

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Nice.

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Yeah, that's super cool.

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And I am going to be honest that I don't

think I can say I know anything about

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quantum computing.

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So why...

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Why would you like to do that?

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What are you, what do you think will that

allow for a better education, basically,

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why would quantum computing help here?

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Well, when we make projections into the

future, we see that we're going to need,

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the quantum industry will need lots of

people, way more people than are in the

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pipeline now.

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So this addresses that market need really.

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So the reason that we want to do it is to

address that market need and do something

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that we think is best fit for it.

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Now as an individual,

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Why would you buy a desktop quantum

emulator and learn about quantum

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programming?

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Well, you know, I think it appeals to the

hobbyists in some sense.

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So if you're someone who buys new tech

stuff on Kickstarter, then you, this is

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the sort of thing that you would buy

because you're curious about it.

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Or maybe you just want to develop new

skills.

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Uh, eventually it will be a subject in, in

high school that students can, can choose

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just like they can choose to do coding now

in high school and programming.

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So quantum computing is something that is,

it's a nascent field, but the 21st century

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will come to be known eventually as the

quantum age, as quantum technologies

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develop.

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Okay.

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And what will that allow us to do?

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I think the only thing I know about

quantum computing is that it's supposed to

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allow you to compute way faster.

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So first of all, the idea I understand

that well,

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And yeah, just can you give us maybe a

rundown on quantum computing?

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Yeah.

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Well, it's not about speed.

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So there are some things that a quantum

computer will be able to do that

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conventional, we call them classical

computers, can't do.

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So the individual steps that occur within

a quantum computer, carrying out an

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instruction is actually slower.

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It's the number

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are way fewer.

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So the device itself is slow, which means

that you wouldn't want to use it for

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simple things like adding numbers.

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Like there's not going to be a quantum

calculator that calculates, that does

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addition faster.

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It's more obscure mathematical problems

that people have connected to real world

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things like applications in cryptography,

in the simulation of chemistry, those

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sorts of things.

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all boil down to these mathematical

problems that are difficult to solve when

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you encode information digitally with ones

and zeros, as you would necessarily have

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to do with your computer.

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If you encode those problems into numbers

that have complex numbers and real numbers

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and negative numbers rather than ones and

zeros, then you can carry out far fewer

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steps to solve your problem.

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And a quantum computer would naturally

encode those numbers.

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and be able to carry out those steps.

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So it's select problems that you would use

this device for.

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It's not just, you know, it's not in the,

it's not this in the faster in the sense

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that eventually we'll have like a iPhone

quantum or something like that.

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It'll be a special purpose component of a

larger computer.

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Just like your CPU outsources graphics

calculations to the GPU, it will outsource

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some quantum

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physics calculations to the QPU in the

future.

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Okay, yeah, yeah.

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Yeah, I see.

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Thanks.

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Much clearer now.

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So, yeah, and I get at least the main

point.

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So, of course, I've already started on

tensions, but I have so many questions for

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you.

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One of my actually planned questions was

that...

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You have a very original origin story

because you claim and you wrote actually

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that quantum physics actually turned you

into a Bajan.

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So tell us why and I'm also curious if

there are any key moments that shifted

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your perspective.

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Right.

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Yeah.

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So yeah, we've been talking about quantum

physics and not Bayesian statistics.

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So it all started when I was a graduate

student and I was interested in this field

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called quantum foundation.

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So it's kind of really trying to

understand the deep underlying questions

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about quantum physics.

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The problem is if you dig deep enough, you

find that quantum physics is just a

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framework built on top of probability

theory.

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You've probably heard of things like the

uncertainty principle, things like that,

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or that quantum physics is a probabilistic

theory.

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And if you look at all of the debates that

happen at the fundamental level and the

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foundational level of the field, they have

more to do with the interpretation of

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probability than they have to do with

physics.

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So when I was a graduate student, I

thought, well, I mean, I'm not going to be

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able to answer these questions until I

understand probability.

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And I suppose in this...

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podcast, I'm preaching to the choir, but I

came out on the other side of that as a

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Bayesian.

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Bayesian, I would put in sort of scare

quotes because I think nowadays you can

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follow the recipes in a book that uses

priors and Bayes' rule and it has the

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title Bayes on it without the need to

actually have an interpretation of

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probability at all.

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So it was more like in order to answer

these questions and have a satisfactory

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understanding of what's going on in

quantum physics,

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You need to have an interpretation of

probability.

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Um, for most physicists, it's just an

implied interpretation that they don't

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really think about.

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But for me, it, you know, it's, it came

out with a subjective interpretation and

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that really helped me understand it.

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Uh, but then I think at some point I was

talking to my thesis committee and they

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didn't like this at all.

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And so most physicists, especially quantum

ones, think probabilities are objective.

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So they told me to do something practical.

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So I transitioned and then tried to start

to apply Bayesian statistics to, you know,

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problems in quantum and quantum physics,

which yeah, they're, it's essentially just

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classical statistics with unfamiliar

models and different loss functions and

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you know, complex numbers are involved in

some sense.

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Um, but yeah, it's basically just a way

to, to derive a likelihood function.

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Now, once you have a likelihood function,

then you're just doing classical

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statistics, it's just a weird likelihood

function.

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Um, so I was able to apply Bayesian

statistics to problems in quantum physics.

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Um, so it was like, I started from this

sort of philosophical point of view and

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then was told to do something practical.

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And so then I was able to.

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some practical things in applying Bayesian

statistics to quantum physics problems.

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Did that change the view that your

supervisors had?

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I think to some extent it did.

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Those techniques and tools that we

developed

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that they're being used in the field,

although it's still dominated with

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frequentist methods.

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Yeah, interesting.

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Yeah.

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In my experience, that's the same.

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So usually people I talk to came to Bass

through practical concern.

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You know, like for instance, a PhD student

who was completely blocked on her paper

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with the classic framework and then she

just tried Bass because while it was...

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of her last resort and it solved all of

her problems and now she's just doing

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that.

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But that's a very practical motivation.

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And yeah, I see most people coming from

that angle.

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You're actually more in the outlier side

where you've been more interested in the

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epistemological point of view and then

shifted to actually doing it.

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And yeah, actually what I've

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It's actually useful.

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Just show them.

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And then they'll be like, yeah, that does

look good.

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And that does solve the problem we were

having.

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So why not try that?

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So in my experience, that's been the same,

too.

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And I'm curious, when was that work you

did on practical Bayesian inference?

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When did you do that?

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Oh, that's gotta be 16.

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Yeah.

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12, 16 years ago.

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And we, so it kind of culminated in, we

built this tool, we call it Qinfer, and

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it's basically a sequential Monte Carlo

integrator that just naturally was able to

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solve the kinds of problems that people

have in quantum

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Because it's quite difficult actually to

use standard tools.

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Often they don't play nice with complex

numbers and things like that.

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Don't naturally have the kind of loss

functions and things that we use in

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quantum physics, kind of matrix

manipulations that we have to do.

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And at the time there wasn't that many,

right?

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Computation-based statistics is a

relatively new thing.

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There was a few tools, but not many.

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And so we ended up building our own and

it's been used many times over the years.

264

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And that was maybe 10 years ago.

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I stepped back from that and handed it off

to the next graduate student.

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Yeah, that's why I asked you, when did you

do that?

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Because just a few years ago, there wasn't

a lot of tools to do that.

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So yeah, like you had, I'm guessing you

had to write the algorithm from, from top

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to finish on your own.

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Yeah.

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And honestly, sometimes that's, that's

better to do it that way.

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I mean, if you want to really deeply

understand something, you have to build it

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yourself.

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You know, we can't build everything from

scratch.

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I mean, if, if you want to understand

particle physics, you can't go build your

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own particle collider, but, uh, for things

that you, you have the capacity to build,

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I would always recommend building it

yourself or at least attempt to, and then

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realize what all of the problems, uh, are

going to be if you wanted to make a really

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slick product.

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So get it to the point where you've built

a prototype and then you really kind of

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deep start to deeply understand.

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what's going on because a lot of times,

especially with really usable products,

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they're really slick and they're just

black boxes.

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And yeah, you can push the buttons and use

them, but you don't end up developing a

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deep understanding of, of what's going on.

286

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Yeah, yeah, for sure.

287

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Even though hopefully if you had to do

that today, that would be easier.

288

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You could use building blocks instead of

really just starting from scratch.

289

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And thankfully- Well, I mean, an example

is I...

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Yeah, I can give you an example.

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So I have a student, an undergraduate

student that I suggested trying a new

292

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it's jargon, but I'm sure people have

heard about it.

293

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Maybe you heard about it.

294

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The Stein variational gradient descent

method, which is a deterministic

295

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integration method and, you know, it's

built into, um, Pi MC.

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Uh, so I, the student can go and can go

and try that, although it is quite, it's

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still quite difficult for them to build,

build the quantum mechanical models that

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they have to build.

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So first I have them do it from scratch.

300

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And, uh, of course it

301

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It works to some extent, but it's not very

efficient.

302

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There are a lot of things that tricks that

come up in numerics.

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Like, what do you do if you're trying to

take a logarithm and there's something

304

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close to zero, right?

305

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Then you don't want them to have to figure

out all those things.

306

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Have them build it first and then go.

307

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Yeah, yeah.

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Yeah, basically using...

309

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Yeah, I like that.

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Basically using a version from scratch

that's...

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Simplified and then when you need to go

industrialize that, well, just use the

312

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tools you have already on the shelf and

maybe customize them if need.

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That's the beauty of.mc where you building

blocks basically that you can personalize

314

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into your own Lego construction in a way.

315

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Yeah, for sure.

316

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But that's awesome.

317

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Well done on doing that thing.

318

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And were you already using Python at the

time, 16 years ago, when you were doing

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your own SMC or was it something else?

320

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No, the first version was built in Matlab,

but as you might anticipate, we ran into

321

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license issues when we ended up using

every one of the entire university's

322

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global optimization toolbox licenses.

323

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And so then we thought, well, this is

silly.

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So then we moved over to Python.

325

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The first one, yeah, it was kind of like

the transition.

326

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So we had an early version built in 2.7,

and then we moved to 3.

327

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Nice.

328

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Yeah.

329

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That's really fun.

330

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Yeah, in SMC, I know there are also some,

like you can do that here with PMC now.

331

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So yeah, if one of your students is

interested,

332

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They can contact me and I'll direct them

to the persons who like doing that on the,

333

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on the PIMC community.

334

00:21:38,229 --> 00:21:48,197

And, and you personally, do you have any

specific instances to share or insights

335

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that you gained by adopting a Bayesian

approach in your, in your research?

336

00:21:56,470 --> 00:21:59,271

I mean, it's hard to know, I suppose.

337

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I mean, I haven't given it a lot of

thought, right?

338

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Because it wasn't like I had this problem

and classical techniques weren't working

339

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for me.

340

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And then I switched over and found, you

know, a particular set of Bayesian

341

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techniques that ended up working.

342

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I recommend it to people because a lot of

times, especially when you're thinking

343

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about things deeply and foundationally,

like...

344

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You know, what are these things mean in

quantum physics?

345

00:22:28,367 --> 00:22:32,930

Um, it, I always go back to simple

classical examples and say, if you can

346

00:22:32,930 --> 00:22:36,912

understand this, or I guess it's a more

negative thing, like if you can't

347

00:22:36,912 --> 00:22:40,714

understand this, then you're not going to

even have a chance at understanding the

348

00:22:40,714 --> 00:22:41,514

more complicated thing.

349

00:22:41,514 --> 00:22:44,876

So, you know, I go back to coin tosses and

I say, okay, what does it mean in the

350

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context of a coin toss?

351

00:22:46,557 --> 00:22:49,239

And if you don't understand it there,

you're not going to understand that

352

00:22:49,239 --> 00:22:51,180

quantum version of it.

353

00:22:51,320 --> 00:22:54,354

And the, yeah, the subjective

interpretation of

354

00:22:54,354 --> 00:22:56,935

of probability just makes things more

natural.

355

00:22:56,935 --> 00:23:02,198

I mean, it gives you a framework for

thinking about things that you can always

356

00:23:02,198 --> 00:23:06,020

build on rather than the classical

approach, which it doesn't give you that

357

00:23:06,020 --> 00:23:06,520

framework at all.

358

00:23:06,520 --> 00:23:11,043

It's just grasping at straws and saying,

okay, you know, what recipes work in this

359

00:23:11,043 --> 00:23:12,163

situation?

360

00:23:12,363 --> 00:23:16,326

And there isn't one coherent framework

sitting behind it.

361

00:23:16,326 --> 00:23:21,128

Whereas the subjective interpretation

gives you that.

362

00:23:21,128 --> 00:23:23,829

And so you might not, yeah, you might not

363

00:23:24,474 --> 00:23:29,958

It's not like it gives you a specific set

of tools that you can apply in every

364

00:23:29,958 --> 00:23:37,264

situation, but it gives you that footing,

that foundation that you can build upon

365

00:23:37,264 --> 00:23:42,228

and always have that level of comfort,

philosophical comfort saying, I

366

00:23:42,228 --> 00:23:43,929

understand, I know what's going on.

367

00:23:45,918 --> 00:23:46,878

Yeah, for sure.

368

00:23:48,099 --> 00:23:57,745

And to build on that question, do you have

a favorite study or paper of yours where

369

00:23:57,745 --> 00:24:01,587

you used some Bayesian stuff at one point?

370

00:24:01,587 --> 00:24:07,211

I'm curious to see, and I'm guessing

listeners too, curious to see where

371

00:24:07,511 --> 00:24:11,833

Bayesian stats is useful when you do

research in quantum physics.

372

00:24:13,610 --> 00:24:15,531

Yeah, there's lots of papers.

373

00:24:15,531 --> 00:24:21,474

I think most of them would be readable for

someone coming from Bayesian statistics

374

00:24:21,474 --> 00:24:23,715

without knowledge of quantum physics.

375

00:24:24,275 --> 00:24:30,599

Because again, I try to frame it in this

way where the quantum physics, the only

376

00:24:30,599 --> 00:24:35,181

point of the quantum physics is to arrive

at the likelihood function.

377

00:24:35,502 --> 00:24:41,105

And once you have that, then you can just

do all the things that you're used to

378

00:24:41,105 --> 00:24:41,865

doing.

379

00:24:43,814 --> 00:24:50,799

Is it because your likelihood functions

are always extremely exotic?

380

00:24:50,839 --> 00:24:59,365

Yeah, so the standard simple quantum

experiment would be about estimating the

381

00:24:59,365 --> 00:25:02,507

parameter in a multinomial distribution.

382

00:25:02,587 --> 00:25:07,330

So you can think of a quantum experiment

as rolling a die and trying to estimate

383

00:25:07,391 --> 00:25:09,932

the probabilities for the faces of the

die.

384

00:25:10,633 --> 00:25:11,713

Yeah, but...

385

00:25:11,778 --> 00:25:19,682

The thing is we don't, um, the, we have

like loss functions that, I mean, yeah,

386

00:25:19,682 --> 00:25:22,543

they, there's some, some major season

things in there.

387

00:25:22,543 --> 00:25:26,825

And then the issue is like, we have these

loss functions that aren't, aren't ever

388

00:25:27,326 --> 00:25:29,707

used in, in classical statistics.

389

00:25:29,707 --> 00:25:32,709

And so a lot of the results, uh, just

don't apply.

390

00:25:32,709 --> 00:25:39,472

So you, you know, you, you can, you can

sometimes appeal to, uh, like the law of

391

00:25:39,472 --> 00:25:41,753

large numbers or, or some of these

392

00:25:42,794 --> 00:25:51,759

you know, these theorems, but they,

strictly speaking, our models don't really

393

00:25:51,759 --> 00:25:54,861

adhere to those, the assumptions that go

into those theorems.

394

00:25:54,981 --> 00:26:01,585

So not only do we have weird loss

functions, that allowed probabilities for

395

00:26:01,585 --> 00:26:07,688

the faces of the die are constrained in a

weird way that relates to a positivity of

396

00:26:07,688 --> 00:26:10,730

some matrix that sits down the pipeline.

397

00:26:10,730 --> 00:26:12,171

So it's, yeah.

398

00:26:12,171 --> 00:26:16,294

So oftentimes you would, you would, if you

did it naively, you would end up

399

00:26:16,294 --> 00:26:22,179

estimating, um, things that make

probabilities negative, which obviously

400

00:26:22,179 --> 00:26:23,280

doesn't make sense.

401

00:26:23,280 --> 00:26:26,502

So, um, yeah, there's weird constraints.

402

00:26:26,843 --> 00:26:32,887

There's an atypical, um, statistical

models and, and then the loss functions

403

00:26:32,887 --> 00:26:34,769

that we use are quite different.

404

00:26:34,829 --> 00:26:40,578

So, but, you know, if, if you know enough

statistics and, and

405

00:26:40,578 --> 00:26:46,822

can accept that there are different, you

know, that the possibilities extend beyond

406

00:26:47,263 --> 00:26:50,826

what you're used to, then yeah, you can

you can work with it.

407

00:26:51,127 --> 00:26:54,209

A lot of times the things that you'd

naturally try don't work.

408

00:26:54,209 --> 00:26:58,873

But, you know, it is still just a

classical statistical problem.

409

00:26:59,213 --> 00:27:06,699

We there was there was one paper where we

were trying to find another way to

410

00:27:09,398 --> 00:27:15,382

problem in parameter estimation in quantum

physics is the parameter that you're

411

00:27:15,382 --> 00:27:18,223

trying to estimate is itself a matrix.

412

00:27:18,223 --> 00:27:19,184

So it's not a real value.

413

00:27:19,184 --> 00:27:20,185

It's not a real value vector.

414

00:27:20,185 --> 00:27:21,546

It's a complex value matrix.

415

00:27:21,546 --> 00:27:22,706

And that's the thing you're trying to

estimate.

416

00:27:22,706 --> 00:27:26,529

So I don't know if you're doing density

estimation, that sort of thing.

417

00:27:26,529 --> 00:27:27,730

It's similar to that.

418

00:27:27,730 --> 00:27:36,296

But we wanted to find the Bayes estimator

for a particular loss function that

419

00:27:36,296 --> 00:27:37,816

involves square roots of

420

00:27:39,634 --> 00:27:44,997

And if you assume that all the matrices

are diagonal, then you're back to a

421

00:27:44,997 --> 00:27:50,261

classical statistical problem and you end

up with this funny loss function for

422

00:27:50,261 --> 00:27:57,705

classical probabilities that's somewhat

related to some loss functions that are

423

00:27:57,726 --> 00:27:59,066

used in learning theory.

424

00:28:00,788 --> 00:28:05,231

And then we said, oh, well, people

actually haven't found the Bayes estimator

425

00:28:05,231 --> 00:28:09,430

or, let's just say, the minimax estimator

for that particular function.

426

00:28:09,430 --> 00:28:16,191

So our quantum result immediately implied

a result just that was purely classical.

427

00:28:16,351 --> 00:28:22,153

And we, the papers titled the papers

estimating the bias of a noisy coin.

428

00:28:22,233 --> 00:28:28,155

So it's, uh, this, this actually crops up

in, in social, uh, some social studies.

429

00:28:28,155 --> 00:28:31,295

So if I, if I ask you, if you cheat on

your taxes, you're going to say no.

430

00:28:31,336 --> 00:28:33,156

So how do they do the sampling?

431

00:28:33,156 --> 00:28:36,197

What they do is they, they introduce some

randomness.

432

00:28:36,197 --> 00:28:38,457

So they they'll say, okay.

433

00:28:38,590 --> 00:28:43,534

roll a die, if the die comes up one, say

yes no matter what.

434

00:28:43,634 --> 00:28:47,918

And so that the person who says yes can

always claim that the die came up one.

435

00:28:47,918 --> 00:28:52,641

And so they feel like they can be honest.

436

00:28:52,822 --> 00:29:00,188

But if that probability of people cheating

is really low, then you might get only one

437

00:29:00,188 --> 00:29:04,352

or two people saying yes, but one in six

times they were supposed to say yes

438

00:29:04,352 --> 00:29:05,232

anyway.

439

00:29:05,272 --> 00:29:07,053

So if you just naively kind of

440

00:29:07,334 --> 00:29:11,377

did methods of moments or some linear

inversion, you would come up with negative

441

00:29:11,377 --> 00:29:12,418

probabilities.

442

00:29:12,418 --> 00:29:17,242

So this is exactly a problem that's

embedded in a quantum mechanical problem.

443

00:29:17,242 --> 00:29:23,707

And so sometimes there's some nice overlap

there.

444

00:29:23,707 --> 00:29:24,768

Yeah, for sure.

445

00:29:25,069 --> 00:29:25,809

That sounds like fun.

446

00:29:25,809 --> 00:29:31,994

And for sure, if you can add these papers

to the show notes, please do, because I'm

447

00:29:31,994 --> 00:29:35,957

pretty sure listeners are going to be

happy to.

448

00:29:36,118 --> 00:29:37,298

to check those out.

449

00:29:38,238 --> 00:29:45,181

I already put some cool links in the show

notes for people, but definitely papers

450

00:29:45,181 --> 00:29:48,283

are always appreciated, so feel free to do

that.

451

00:29:48,283 --> 00:29:53,665

This is a safe place where we can all

share our love for academic papers.

452

00:29:53,665 --> 00:29:57,806

Great.

453

00:29:57,806 --> 00:29:59,727

Yeah, I should warn the listeners though.

454

00:29:59,727 --> 00:30:04,229

Yeah, a lot of them are, they're cavalier,

like a typical physicist.

455

00:30:04,229 --> 00:30:05,589

So it's very...

456

00:30:06,346 --> 00:30:09,068

We often take a conceptual approach to

these things.

457

00:30:09,068 --> 00:30:12,090

Okay, interesting.

458

00:30:12,090 --> 00:30:17,453

Well, I read it because it must be pretty

different from a statistics paper.

459

00:30:17,453 --> 00:30:19,595

I don't think I've ever read a quantum

physics paper.

460

00:30:19,595 --> 00:30:21,576

So yeah, for sure.

461

00:30:22,577 --> 00:30:25,759

I think I'm going to start by your books

though, your books for children.

462

00:30:25,759 --> 00:30:28,781

I'm embarrassed to say, I think I'm going

to learn a lot from them.

463

00:30:28,781 --> 00:30:32,744

So I'm going to start by getting to walk

my way up to your papers.

464

00:30:32,744 --> 00:30:35,585

Sounds much, much clearer.

465

00:30:37,611 --> 00:30:43,496

And maybe before actually talking a bit

more about quantum physics and what you do

466

00:30:43,496 --> 00:30:49,682

and also the work you do on your

children's books, but also science

467

00:30:49,682 --> 00:30:55,667

communication in general, and I'd like to

keep talking a bit more about Bayesian

468

00:30:55,667 --> 00:31:01,692

stats because I'm curious, I'm always

curious when I talk to a practitioner like

469

00:31:01,692 --> 00:31:04,393

you and so someone who is not...

470

00:31:04,414 --> 00:31:08,860

by training a statistician, but someone

who really uses Bayesian statistics for

471

00:31:08,860 --> 00:31:11,864

their area of expertise.

472

00:31:13,066 --> 00:31:18,653

What do you see as the biggest pain points

in the Bayesian workflow right now?

473

00:31:20,814 --> 00:31:26,678

I think, as I mentioned before, the

software that is typically used off the

474

00:31:26,678 --> 00:31:34,705

shelf doesn't accommodate the quirks and

things that come up in quantum models.

475

00:31:34,745 --> 00:31:38,848

Some of them, they just won't accept

complex numbers, for example.

476

00:31:40,030 --> 00:31:45,434

When I first attempted to use TensorFlow

way back, TensorFlow 1, you couldn't even

477

00:31:45,434 --> 00:31:46,715

use complex numbers.

478

00:31:49,590 --> 00:31:51,570

to go back to the source code.

479

00:31:51,570 --> 00:31:55,251

And at that point, you might as well just

build it yourself.

480

00:31:56,052 --> 00:32:00,393

So yeah, complex numbers, matrix

manipulations, we often have, as I said,

481

00:32:00,393 --> 00:32:01,913

lots of constraints.

482

00:32:02,153 --> 00:32:09,436

And when you attempt to use something out

of the box, if it works at all, your whole

483

00:32:09,436 --> 00:32:11,136

screen is filled with warnings.

484

00:32:12,337 --> 00:32:15,497

And it isn't.

485

00:32:15,602 --> 00:32:20,003

It isn't as nice as the demos of the

software.

486

00:32:20,683 --> 00:32:28,385

So I think for me, and possibly for people

that are running models with lots of

487

00:32:28,385 --> 00:32:34,287

constraints, this is the biggest pain

point at the moment.

488

00:32:38,648 --> 00:32:44,810

Obviously, the software will accommodate

constraints, but it doesn't.

489

00:32:44,810 --> 00:32:49,131

It doesn't seem to do so in a way that's

natural and easy.

490

00:32:50,611 --> 00:32:51,291

Yeah.

491

00:32:51,391 --> 00:32:56,153

So ideally that like in an ideal world,

that would be what you'd like to see to

492

00:32:56,153 --> 00:32:58,593

help adoption of patient training.

493

00:33:00,234 --> 00:33:00,694

Yeah.

494

00:33:00,694 --> 00:33:05,536

I mean, like a really concrete example

would be, you know, I want to do

495

00:33:05,536 --> 00:33:11,977

sequential Monte Carlo on some simple

estimates.

496

00:33:12,574 --> 00:33:16,575

I'm doing an experiment where I roll a die

several times and I want to estimate the

497

00:33:16,575 --> 00:33:17,355

probabilities.

498

00:33:17,355 --> 00:33:24,917

It's of some biased die, but the

probabilities come with a long list of

499

00:33:24,917 --> 00:33:25,857

linear constraints.

500

00:33:25,857 --> 00:33:29,178

So not any probability will do.

501

00:33:31,179 --> 00:33:36,340

When you're doing the resampling, what is

it that the software is doing to

502

00:33:36,340 --> 00:33:38,041

accommodate those constraints?

503

00:33:40,542 --> 00:33:43,424

approach is like, what doesn't really

matter because there is no constraints.

504

00:33:43,424 --> 00:33:49,448

And so you can just throw a Gaussian on it

and you know, it, nothing.

505

00:33:49,448 --> 00:33:55,052

Yeah, it's simple, but when you have these

constraints, um, yeah, it makes, it makes

506

00:33:55,052 --> 00:33:57,914

things far, far more challenging.

507

00:33:58,215 --> 00:34:02,157

And sometimes the software just doesn't,

doesn't accommodate those.

508

00:34:04,690 --> 00:34:06,771

Yeah, yeah, no, for sure.

509

00:34:06,951 --> 00:34:08,992

I understand your pain.

510

00:34:10,153 --> 00:34:18,779

And I'd like to make your wish come true,

but that's a hard one because in here,

511

00:34:18,779 --> 00:34:28,846

you're hitting a limitation, I would say,

of the development process where you have

512

00:34:28,846 --> 00:34:34,429

to choose at some point if your package is

going to be general or specific.

513

00:34:34,842 --> 00:34:40,004

And packages like Stan, Climacy,

TensorFlow, they have to be general

514

00:34:40,004 --> 00:34:45,748

because they are adopted by so many people

with so many different backgrounds and so

515

00:34:45,748 --> 00:34:54,633

many different uses that we have to make

choices that are going to work for most

516

00:34:54,633 --> 00:34:59,315

people and that are going to be optimal

for most use cases.

517

00:34:59,315 --> 00:35:03,378

But that means for sure it's like

518

00:35:03,378 --> 00:35:06,841

If you're trying to accommodate everybody,

nobody's going to be accommodated

519

00:35:06,841 --> 00:35:07,801

perfectly.

520

00:35:07,961 --> 00:35:08,262

Right.

521

00:35:08,262 --> 00:35:16,429

So, yeah, like it seems to me like someone

should go there and basically build a

522

00:35:16,429 --> 00:35:24,275

package on top of PIMC that just like

addresses what you folks pain points are

523

00:35:24,435 --> 00:35:25,977

in quantum physics.

524

00:35:25,977 --> 00:35:26,877

Basically.

525

00:35:27,498 --> 00:35:31,941

I know there is such a package for

astrophysicists.

526

00:35:32,110 --> 00:35:36,252

Of course, I don't remember the package

name right now, but I'll try to remember

527

00:35:36,252 --> 00:35:37,772

and put that in the show notes.

528

00:35:38,833 --> 00:35:42,836

And I know that package built on top of

times is really, really used a lot in the

529

00:35:42,836 --> 00:35:44,176

astrophysics field.

530

00:35:44,377 --> 00:35:48,699

I'm not aware of any package like that in

the quantum physics realm.

531

00:35:48,919 --> 00:35:54,422

But if any listeners do, but then please

reach out to me and I'll pass that on to

532

00:35:54,422 --> 00:35:54,683

Chris.

533

00:35:54,683 --> 00:35:58,304

I'm sure his PhD students are going to be

grateful.

534

00:35:58,385 --> 00:35:59,105

Yeah.

535

00:36:00,490 --> 00:36:06,033

Or if anybody wants to do that, get in

contact with Chris, I'm sure he would have

536

00:36:06,033 --> 00:36:11,557

valuable points for you about what he'd

like to see in particular.

537

00:36:14,390 --> 00:36:17,592

I think it's honestly there's a research

question in there as well, right?

538

00:36:17,592 --> 00:36:26,178

At least when we were doing it, that

particular method that we were using, it

539

00:36:26,178 --> 00:36:31,502

was never applied or developed in the

context of constraints.

540

00:36:31,502 --> 00:36:38,507

And so what you do when you're faced with

constraints, at the time anyway, it was

541

00:36:38,507 --> 00:36:40,128

like sort of an open research question.

542

00:36:40,128 --> 00:36:42,149

So yeah, it's fair that...

543

00:36:42,366 --> 00:36:46,777

It's fair that the software just doesn't

solve it for you because it may not be a

544

00:36:47,360 --> 00:36:49,505

there may not be an actual solution yet.

545

00:36:51,494 --> 00:36:55,156

Yeah, that's a good point also.

546

00:36:57,298 --> 00:37:05,184

And so now I'd like to ask you a bit more

about quantum physics per se, because,

547

00:37:05,184 --> 00:37:07,545

well, I'm always very curious about

physics.

548

00:37:07,545 --> 00:37:16,792

So what in your line of research, what are

the biggest questions, the biggest

549

00:37:16,792 --> 00:37:19,113

challenging you face currently?

550

00:37:21,742 --> 00:37:28,985

So we're at this weird transition point in

the field of quantum technology where we

551

00:37:28,985 --> 00:37:36,269

can't in laboratories, university

laboratories, build bigger devices.

552

00:37:36,990 --> 00:37:42,353

So we kind of count the power of a quantum

computer in the number of quantum bits or

553

00:37:42,353 --> 00:37:45,334

qubits that we can control.

554

00:37:45,715 --> 00:37:49,296

And nowadays it's very easy to get one

qubit.

555

00:37:51,106 --> 00:37:55,647

was very difficult, but now there are many

different modalities, trapping atoms,

556

00:37:55,647 --> 00:37:58,068

using states of light.

557

00:37:58,869 --> 00:38:05,591

All of these sorts of things can now be

used to encode a single qubit, and that

558

00:38:05,591 --> 00:38:10,093

can be done in the standard physics lab.

559

00:38:10,093 --> 00:38:14,875

Going beyond that becomes more difficult

and you need much more funding to do it,

560

00:38:15,015 --> 00:38:20,697

but going much further beyond that is not

a possibility within an academic.

561

00:38:20,906 --> 00:38:21,886

context.

562

00:38:21,886 --> 00:38:28,871

And so you need some large government

organization or collaboration to do it, or

563

00:38:28,871 --> 00:38:32,754

you need industry to take over.

564

00:38:32,754 --> 00:38:38,558

So we're at that cusp where the largest

devices are ones that are being developed

565

00:38:38,558 --> 00:38:44,241

by companies, companies like IBM, Google,

startup companies like Rigetti, IonQ.

566

00:38:44,241 --> 00:38:47,063

There's a whole host of them now.

567

00:38:47,203 --> 00:38:50,525

And what they're doing, obviously,

568

00:38:50,602 --> 00:38:51,422

secret now.

569

00:38:51,422 --> 00:38:54,284

So it's a weird place to be.

570

00:38:55,586 --> 00:38:59,209

I can't tell you, I can make guesses about

where they are, what they're doing, what

571

00:38:59,209 --> 00:39:00,449

their problems are.

572

00:39:00,650 --> 00:39:07,455

But if they wanted my help, I'd have to

sign an NDA, or they'd have to pay me and

573

00:39:07,475 --> 00:39:08,816

I wouldn't be able to tell you.

574

00:39:09,597 --> 00:39:13,179

So we've kind of transitioned into

575

00:39:20,258 --> 00:39:28,563

We're moving out of university research

labs into government and company and

576

00:39:28,563 --> 00:39:31,425

multinational company R&D labs.

577

00:39:33,266 --> 00:39:39,290

They have the same problems, but at a

larger scale that university researchers

578

00:39:39,290 --> 00:39:47,096

had, which is just that to maintain the

state of an isolated quantum system is

579

00:39:47,096 --> 00:39:48,216

very difficult.

580

00:39:48,216 --> 00:39:49,497

Any interaction.

581

00:39:50,218 --> 00:39:56,142

cosmic ray that comes in that you

obviously can't control will degrade the

582

00:39:56,142 --> 00:39:58,883

information that's being encoded in these

systems.

583

00:39:59,024 --> 00:40:00,645

And so they're very fragile.

584

00:40:00,645 --> 00:40:05,589

We need to work out ways to provide better

isolation, but complete isolation is not

585

00:40:05,589 --> 00:40:10,492

good either because you have to control

them to carry out the instructions that

586

00:40:10,512 --> 00:40:10,932

you want.

587

00:40:10,932 --> 00:40:14,855

So it's kind of this Catch-22 where you

want it to be completely isolated from

588

00:40:14,855 --> 00:40:18,197

everything except for when you want to

actually.

589

00:40:18,230 --> 00:40:20,550

go in there and manipulate it in some way.

590

00:40:20,630 --> 00:40:24,172

So yeah, these are the problems.

591

00:40:24,172 --> 00:40:30,034

And I think theoretically there's still

that big question about can it even be

592

00:40:30,034 --> 00:40:30,414

done?

593

00:40:30,414 --> 00:40:33,116

Can we even build a quantum computer?

594

00:40:33,116 --> 00:40:35,736

There doesn't seem to be a reason why.

595

00:40:36,037 --> 00:40:41,439

If it turns out that we couldn't, we'd

learn a lot about the nature of reality

596

00:40:42,299 --> 00:40:44,280

and the reason for why that's the case.

597

00:40:44,700 --> 00:40:45,760

But

598

00:40:48,306 --> 00:40:52,727

I think have the potential to be answered

in my lifetime.

599

00:40:54,167 --> 00:41:01,209

Can we build a large scale fault tolerant

error corrected quantum computer that

600

00:41:01,209 --> 00:41:05,450

carries out some calculation that would

have been impossible to carry out with

601

00:41:05,450 --> 00:41:07,391

digital electronics?

602

00:41:09,671 --> 00:41:11,912

Yeah, yeah, that's pretty fascinating.

603

00:41:13,632 --> 00:41:17,713

And I'm really impressed by the depth and

the width.

604

00:41:18,246 --> 00:41:22,449

of topics in the research of physics.

605

00:41:22,449 --> 00:41:24,210

It's just incredible.

606

00:41:25,331 --> 00:41:37,099

I would refer to listeners to episode 93

that I did at CERN, the summer, I mean,

607

00:41:37,099 --> 00:41:44,844

2023 summer, where we went deep on what do

they do at CERN, what type of research,

608

00:41:44,844 --> 00:41:47,545

what does that mean, why even do that.

609

00:41:48,414 --> 00:41:53,097

And you'll see, well, some, you know,

cross topics with what Chris is talking

610

00:41:53,097 --> 00:41:57,059

about, but also things that are completely

different.

611

00:41:57,199 --> 00:42:03,923

And that's just incredible to see how wide

these fields are.

612

00:42:03,923 --> 00:42:10,346

And that sounds to me that's pretty

incredible because in the end, that's

613

00:42:10,346 --> 00:42:12,648

just, you know, trying to understand the

universe.

614

00:42:12,648 --> 00:42:16,322

So it's kind of doing the same thing, but

it brings you...

615

00:42:16,322 --> 00:42:20,646

to directions that are completely,

completely different.

616

00:42:20,646 --> 00:42:24,289

And that's really the funny, one of the

fascinating things, I think, of these

617

00:42:24,289 --> 00:42:26,931

topics.

618

00:42:26,931 --> 00:42:31,856

And of course, go to the video version of

the episode 93.

619

00:42:31,856 --> 00:42:35,359

You have the audio version if you have,

but that was a video documentary inside

620

00:42:35,359 --> 00:42:36,180

CERN.

621

00:42:36,741 --> 00:42:41,585

So I highly recommend checking out the

YouTube link that I will put in the show

622

00:42:41,585 --> 00:42:42,245

notes.

623

00:42:46,622 --> 00:42:53,844

And actually, I'm curious, Chris, about

also because now, as you were saying, you

624

00:42:53,844 --> 00:43:02,846

kind of have a management role, which

implies thinking a lot about the future.

625

00:43:03,166 --> 00:43:12,309

So I'm wondering, where do you see the

field of quantum mechanics headed in the

626

00:43:12,309 --> 00:43:13,769

next decade?

627

00:43:15,718 --> 00:43:22,741

Also, maybe how do you see patient stats

still helping in this endeavor?

628

00:43:25,134 --> 00:43:25,974

That's a good question.

629

00:43:25,974 --> 00:43:32,418

I think much like astronomy, for example,

Bayesian techniques will see a wider

630

00:43:32,418 --> 00:43:37,100

adoption because at the moment, the way

that a laboratory quantum physics

631

00:43:37,100 --> 00:43:48,226

experiment happens is really foreign to

someone who does machine learning or data

632

00:43:48,226 --> 00:43:54,209

science where you have some data set and

then you need to analyze it.

633

00:43:55,118 --> 00:44:00,699

No, what they do in labs in physics

departments is if the data isn't what you

634

00:44:00,699 --> 00:44:03,660

wanted, then you just throw it out and

start again.

635

00:44:03,660 --> 00:44:06,981

And, and you work until you have like

really clean data sets.

636

00:44:06,981 --> 00:44:11,582

So all of the all of the problems with

data sets and things like that don't

637

00:44:11,582 --> 00:44:13,783

happen in physics labs.

638

00:44:13,783 --> 00:44:17,204

The physicists want to see the answer in

their data.

639

00:44:17,904 --> 00:44:22,745

So the really sort of data scarce regime

is unacceptable to them.

640

00:44:22,882 --> 00:44:26,744

They need to see it on an oscilloscope or

something.

641

00:44:28,645 --> 00:44:32,968

The probability distributions essentially

have to be delta functions for them before

642

00:44:32,968 --> 00:44:35,609

they accept that the experiment actually

worked.

643

00:44:36,530 --> 00:44:40,051

But that's because we're doing really

small-scale experiments.

644

00:44:40,252 --> 00:44:46,776

Once those experiments grow and become

large, we won't be able to do that

645

00:44:46,776 --> 00:44:47,676

anymore.

646

00:44:47,856 --> 00:44:50,077

If an experiment takes a week to run,

647

00:44:50,518 --> 00:44:54,680

You're not going to say, do it over again

until you see a nicer data.

648

00:44:54,680 --> 00:44:59,904

You're just going to have to accept that

that's the data set and you have to, you

649

00:44:59,904 --> 00:45:03,147

know, get as much information out of it as

possible.

650

00:45:03,147 --> 00:45:07,249

And that's going to require utilizing the

assumptions that you're making.

651

00:45:07,590 --> 00:45:10,852

In a sensible way, which will lead you to

sort of Bayesian techniques.

652

00:45:11,072 --> 00:45:18,017

So I think we will see wider and wider

adoption within the quantum research

653

00:45:18,017 --> 00:45:18,917

fields.

654

00:45:19,270 --> 00:45:23,497

of Bayesian techniques going into the

future, much like we have in the last two

655

00:45:23,497 --> 00:45:25,540

decades in astronomy.

656

00:45:25,821 --> 00:45:28,005

Hmm.

657

00:45:28,005 --> 00:45:28,765

Yeah.

658

00:45:28,846 --> 00:45:29,427

Uh-oh.

659

00:45:29,427 --> 00:45:30,889

Yeah, fascinating and...

660

00:45:34,922 --> 00:45:40,123

I really hope that these big questions you

were talking about are going to be

661

00:45:40,523 --> 00:45:45,885

answered, at least some of them, because

I'm just so curious about that.

662

00:45:48,886 --> 00:45:54,747

That would be just fascinating to have

some of these answers at least come our

663

00:45:54,747 --> 00:45:56,528

way in the coming years.

664

00:46:05,003 --> 00:46:09,368

um, relativity in quantum physics and how

you can merge that.

665

00:46:09,368 --> 00:46:14,973

And so that's definitely would be

incredible to at least understand that a

666

00:46:14,973 --> 00:46:15,894

bit better.

667

00:46:16,355 --> 00:46:21,660

And also, and I'm also fascinated by the

fact that how do you do the experiments on

668

00:46:21,660 --> 00:46:26,364

this realm for now is just super

complicated.

669

00:46:31,694 --> 00:46:33,515

Yeah, I think those are huge questions.

670

00:46:33,955 --> 00:46:37,377

I don't even think we've really formulated

the questions correctly.

671

00:46:37,377 --> 00:46:41,298

I mean, that's my take on it.

672

00:46:41,298 --> 00:46:44,499

We have a theory that works really well at

the moment.

673

00:46:44,499 --> 00:46:50,762

In every regime we can test, our current

best model quantum field theory works

674

00:46:51,202 --> 00:46:52,442

incredibly well.

675

00:46:53,083 --> 00:46:58,145

It's places that we don't even understand

like inside the event horizon of a black

676

00:46:58,145 --> 00:46:58,865

hole.

677

00:46:59,866 --> 00:47:04,309

in principle, we can't even go there to

get the data that we would need to find

678

00:47:04,309 --> 00:47:06,311

out if the theory works there.

679

00:47:09,134 --> 00:47:11,996

There's various takes on it.

680

00:47:11,996 --> 00:47:16,180

It's just a pessimistic take, which is

like, maybe we've hit the limits of what

681

00:47:16,180 --> 00:47:21,044

we can understand given our capabilities

in the universe.

682

00:47:21,044 --> 00:47:26,729

And then, yeah, a more positive view is

like, well, eventually someone will come

683

00:47:26,729 --> 00:47:27,929

up with some idea

684

00:47:28,494 --> 00:47:32,876

there was something that nobody could have

seen coming.

685

00:47:33,577 --> 00:47:36,339

That's typically how paradigm shifts have

worked in the past.

686

00:47:36,339 --> 00:47:41,443

So there's no reason to think

pessimistically that will stop.

687

00:47:41,443 --> 00:47:44,426

But who knows, it might be the case.

688

00:47:44,426 --> 00:47:44,586

Yeah.

689

00:47:44,586 --> 00:47:53,192

I mean, I do hope for the second option,

but you can never know.

690

00:47:53,192 --> 00:47:55,173

And actually now

691

00:47:56,230 --> 00:47:59,631

I love the fact that you do a lot of

science communication, of course it's also

692

00:47:59,631 --> 00:48:06,295

a job of these podcasts, so it's always

something I'm very happy to talk about and

693

00:48:06,775 --> 00:48:11,318

I'm wondering if there are some common

misconceptions you've seen about quantum

694

00:48:11,318 --> 00:48:13,379

physics, maybe even about

695

00:48:20,330 --> 00:48:22,211

Oh, yeah.

696

00:48:23,633 --> 00:48:28,377

Well, I wrote an entire book for, not for

children.

697

00:48:28,377 --> 00:48:34,742

It's, yeah, you may have to edit this part

out because the book's called Quantum

698

00:48:34,742 --> 00:48:35,563

Bullshit.

699

00:48:35,563 --> 00:48:38,725

I don't know if that's allowed in the

podcast.

700

00:48:39,226 --> 00:48:42,729

I'm French, so we have no worries with

swear words.

701

00:48:45,352 --> 00:48:47,193

Yeah, in Australia it's similar.

702

00:48:48,094 --> 00:48:50,515

Yeah, so that's the title of the book.

703

00:48:50,515 --> 00:48:53,736

The subtitle is kind of a science comedy.

704

00:48:53,736 --> 00:48:57,257

So the subtitle is How to Ruin Your Life

with advice from quantum physics.

705

00:48:57,317 --> 00:49:03,240

And it kind of goes through a lot of the

common misconceptions and how each of

706

00:49:03,240 --> 00:49:06,581

these major concepts in quantum physics

are misused.

707

00:49:06,581 --> 00:49:12,524

Things like superposition, entanglement,

quantum energy, quantum uncertainty, these

708

00:49:12,524 --> 00:49:17,145

sorts of things, how they typically are

misused.

709

00:49:17,386 --> 00:49:25,628

And yeah, what's the most sensible kind of

way to understand them without having the

710

00:49:25,628 --> 00:49:30,289

mathematical background that underpins the

framework of the theory?

711

00:49:30,369 --> 00:49:32,150

So yeah, there's lots of them.

712

00:49:32,150 --> 00:49:36,891

And if you want the comprehensive list,

definitely check out the book.

713

00:49:36,891 --> 00:49:40,672

I'll give you like a typical

714

00:49:46,822 --> 00:49:49,662

means things can be in two places at once.

715

00:49:49,882 --> 00:49:56,724

And that just like, just saying it out

loud should make it clear that that's a

716

00:49:56,724 --> 00:49:58,225

logical contradiction.

717

00:49:58,325 --> 00:50:06,187

Because, you know, a dichotomy between

true and false, and you can't have

718

00:50:06,187 --> 00:50:07,387

something that's both true and false.

719

00:50:07,387 --> 00:50:09,628

So sort of a logical contradiction.

720

00:50:10,708 --> 00:50:15,510

But that being said, you still, you know,

physicists will still say things

721

00:50:15,510 --> 00:50:17,790

that sound kind of like that.

722

00:50:17,810 --> 00:50:23,753

So an example might be this famous double

slit experiment where you have some sort

723

00:50:23,753 --> 00:50:29,655

of screen, it has two holes in it, and you

fire electrons at it and you see an

724

00:50:29,655 --> 00:50:33,857

interference pattern on the other side

instead of just two dots where the

725

00:50:33,857 --> 00:50:40,259

electrons landed, suggesting that the

particles interfere with each other.

726

00:50:40,280 --> 00:50:44,421

And if you do it one particle at a time,

that means it has to interfere with

727

00:50:44,421 --> 00:50:45,002

itself.

728

00:50:45,002 --> 00:50:48,143

which means it had to have gone through

both slits at the same time.

729

00:50:48,143 --> 00:50:53,807

So the electron had, or whatever particle

it is, had to be in both of those places

730

00:50:53,807 --> 00:50:54,887

at the same time.

731

00:50:54,887 --> 00:51:00,731

But we always run into these problems when

we try to explain what's going on in

732

00:51:00,731 --> 00:51:04,472

quantum physics by analogy to our everyday

world.

733

00:51:05,734 --> 00:51:08,015

It's just a different world that we don't

have access to.

734

00:51:08,015 --> 00:51:10,957

We don't have a language and a familiarity

with.

735

00:51:10,957 --> 00:51:12,477

So we have to use these analogies.

736

00:51:12,477 --> 00:51:12,810

But...

737

00:51:12,810 --> 00:51:14,651

you know, they very quickly break down.

738

00:51:14,651 --> 00:51:18,332

So that's absolutely not what's happening.

739

00:51:18,513 --> 00:51:21,874

Uh, and things can't be in two places at

once.

740

00:51:22,215 --> 00:51:27,858

And yeah, you shouldn't, uh, you should

buy a quantum crystal or something because

741

00:51:27,858 --> 00:51:30,520

it promises that, that it can do that.

742

00:51:30,520 --> 00:51:39,025

And for the Bayesian, I find actually, um,

uh, yeah.

743

00:51:39,025 --> 00:51:40,945

So, you know, when you

744

00:51:41,738 --> 00:51:49,304

You can kind of explain to people the way

I do it now is to walk through that idea

745

00:51:49,304 --> 00:51:53,327

that in quantum physics we have these

concepts and we have to use a language

746

00:51:53,327 --> 00:52:00,233

that we're familiar with but that language

isn't really suited for trying to do

747

00:52:00,233 --> 00:52:03,136

anything beyond explain that one special

thing.

748

00:52:03,136 --> 00:52:07,659

You can't extrapolate using those

analogies because you'll quickly fall prey

749

00:52:07,659 --> 00:52:09,240

to misconceptions.

750

00:52:09,781 --> 00:52:10,421

So

751

00:52:10,906 --> 00:52:14,388

That's typically how I explain it in the

context of quantum physics.

752

00:52:15,950 --> 00:52:20,753

And quantum physics is actually quite

popular in the popular culture.

753

00:52:21,254 --> 00:52:26,158

I don't find that Bayesian probability is

so popular in popular culture.

754

00:52:26,899 --> 00:52:30,642

So, you know, the word quantum crops up

all the time, attached to things.

755

00:52:31,222 --> 00:52:33,124

Nobody's selling Bayesian healing

crystals.

756

00:52:33,124 --> 00:52:36,606

So, these aren't like popular.

757

00:52:37,407 --> 00:52:39,529

Oh, that's actually not a bad idea.

758

00:52:44,248 --> 00:52:44,368

Yeah.

759

00:52:44,368 --> 00:52:49,672

But so you don't need to approach it the

same way because you're not typically

760

00:52:49,672 --> 00:52:55,836

talking to a lay audience when you're

talking about misconceptions and Bayesian

761

00:52:55,836 --> 00:52:56,836

probability.

762

00:52:56,857 --> 00:53:04,322

Usually it's someone technically minded

who knows something about some technical

763

00:53:04,322 --> 00:53:09,525

topic that the probability is being

applied to or probability itself.

764

00:53:10,086 --> 00:53:18,211

In physics, the main problem that people

have, you could call it a misconception,

765

00:53:18,231 --> 00:53:25,517

is that Bayesian methods are subjective,

whereas frequentist methods are objective.

766

00:53:25,517 --> 00:53:28,639

And as a scientist, you need to strive for

objectivity.

767

00:53:28,639 --> 00:53:31,821

So that means that you shouldn't use

Bayesian methods and you have to use

768

00:53:31,821 --> 00:53:33,102

frequentist methods.

769

00:53:33,142 --> 00:53:36,605

But the easy thing to point out is to...

770

00:53:36,605 --> 00:53:38,305

What you could do is just...

771

00:53:38,370 --> 00:53:41,770

have them walk through how they would

apply frequentist methods and then point

772

00:53:41,770 --> 00:53:45,832

out that they had options and then they

made their subjective judgments on which

773

00:53:45,832 --> 00:53:48,392

options they were going to choose to solve

their problem.

774

00:53:48,452 --> 00:53:51,113

So it's no less subjective.

775

00:53:51,453 --> 00:53:57,015

And in some sense, it's worse in the sense

that you're not being honest about the

776

00:53:57,015 --> 00:53:59,315

biases that are going into what you're

doing.

777

00:53:59,375 --> 00:54:05,557

So yes, Bayesian methods are absolutely

subjective, but they're subjective in the

778

00:54:05,557 --> 00:54:07,057

most honest way possible.

779

00:54:09,098 --> 00:54:15,119

Yeah, that's usually the way I go about it

also.

780

00:54:16,339 --> 00:54:24,302

The faster you're going to abandon the

idea that there is an objective way of

781

00:54:24,302 --> 00:54:29,883

seeing reality, at least the way we are

made, you know, if you're homo sapiens,

782

00:54:30,623 --> 00:54:36,225

the faster you'll be able to think about

real ways to actually try to understand

783

00:54:36,225 --> 00:54:37,245

what's going on.

784

00:54:37,945 --> 00:54:38,825

And so, yeah.

785

00:54:39,050 --> 00:54:42,152

It's usually the way I go about it.

786

00:54:42,632 --> 00:54:46,115

But yeah, I mean, these are fascinating

topics.

787

00:54:46,115 --> 00:54:54,581

I, we've actually covered some of them in

some of the episodes we've already done on

788

00:54:54,581 --> 00:54:55,101

the show.

789

00:54:55,101 --> 00:55:04,528

So the one, one before you was episode 97

with Alien Downey where he actually talked

790

00:55:04,528 --> 00:55:05,929

about that where.

791

00:55:07,410 --> 00:55:17,857

He has also a blog post about it comparing

this idea that Bayesian results converge

792

00:55:17,857 --> 00:55:21,679

to the frequentist results to the limit.

793

00:55:21,719 --> 00:55:27,583

And so that was interesting to talk about

it with him because he actually argues

794

00:55:27,583 --> 00:55:29,064

that it's never the same.

795

00:55:29,064 --> 00:55:30,826

And that's not a problem.

796

00:55:30,826 --> 00:55:34,428

You should still choose the Bayesian

framework, actually.

797

00:55:35,048 --> 00:55:36,809

But that was interesting.

798

00:55:37,090 --> 00:55:41,211

So you have that for people interested and

also I'll put in the show notes.

799

00:55:41,211 --> 00:55:45,852

So I'll put that one and I'll put in the

show notes, episode 50 and 51.

800

00:55:45,952 --> 00:55:53,074

50 was with Aubrey Clayton, who wrote an

amazing book called Bernoulli's Fantasy

801

00:55:53,434 --> 00:55:55,535

and the Crisis of Modern Science.

802

00:55:55,535 --> 00:56:04,637

So that's more about the history of

statistics and how basically, how and why

803

00:56:07,130 --> 00:56:10,333

came to dominate the scientific world.

804

00:56:11,294 --> 00:56:14,657

So much more epistemological, very, very

fascinating book.

805

00:56:14,777 --> 00:56:21,463

And episode 51 with Sir, only Sir we've

had on the podcast, I think, Sir David

806

00:56:21,463 --> 00:56:32,013

Spiegelhalter about risk communication,

how to talk about risk, especially to a

807

00:56:32,013 --> 00:56:33,062

lay audience.

808

00:56:33,062 --> 00:56:37,704

and people who are not educated in stats

or in the scientific method.

809

00:56:37,765 --> 00:56:41,047

And that was, that was way closer to the

COVID pandemic.

810

00:56:41,047 --> 00:56:45,850

So that was very interesting to talk about

that with him, because these topics were

811

00:56:45,850 --> 00:56:51,754

absolutely important in time of pandemic

or very stressful situations.

812

00:56:51,754 --> 00:56:52,395

Right.

813

00:56:52,975 --> 00:56:54,757

Who would think so, right?

814

00:56:54,757 --> 00:56:59,580

That the nerds actually had tried all

along to talk about stats and

815

00:56:59,580 --> 00:57:00,800

probabilities.

816

00:57:02,262 --> 00:57:05,522

This can save you during a pandemic.

817

00:57:06,263 --> 00:57:12,945

But yeah, I mean, this is also something

that I think must be added in these

818

00:57:12,945 --> 00:57:13,945

discussions.

819

00:57:15,005 --> 00:57:20,727

Often, it's not really in the papers that

you see these misconceptions, but it's

820

00:57:20,727 --> 00:57:25,128

more in the way the papers are interpreted

by people who are not equipped to read the

821

00:57:25,128 --> 00:57:26,048

papers.

822

00:57:27,269 --> 00:57:30,118

And so I think there is a...

823

00:57:30,118 --> 00:57:33,339

a job in the world that needs to be

filled, which is basically making the

824

00:57:33,339 --> 00:57:41,842

bridge between scientific papers and then

what ends up in the newspapers.

825

00:57:42,102 --> 00:57:46,844

And that is a bridge that still has to be

built.

826

00:57:48,145 --> 00:57:56,268

And we're trying to do that in a way with

our work, but it's still so much things to

827

00:57:56,268 --> 00:57:57,328

do still.

828

00:58:00,594 --> 00:58:02,294

Sometimes my game is really to do that.

829

00:58:02,294 --> 00:58:07,876

It's trying to see what people are talking

about on Instagram or stuff like that.

830

00:58:07,876 --> 00:58:14,638

And then actually try and go to the source

that they are supposed to quote, you know,

831

00:58:14,638 --> 00:58:15,578

to site.

832

00:58:15,658 --> 00:58:19,760

And then you see that basically it's just

like the first person who reported on the

833

00:58:19,760 --> 00:58:25,401

paper did understand the paper or just

read the abstract and the title.

834

00:58:25,834 --> 00:58:28,778

And then just everybody cite that first

source.

835

00:58:28,778 --> 00:58:34,165

So basically the first error is just like

trickled down and that's just fascinating.

836

00:58:36,474 --> 00:58:37,694

Yeah.

837

00:58:37,914 --> 00:58:43,437

Yeah, I think the solution has to sort of

include actually that people write fewer

838

00:58:43,437 --> 00:58:43,878

papers.

839

00:58:43,878 --> 00:58:49,261

I mean, there's over a million academic

journal articles published every year, and

840

00:58:49,261 --> 00:58:54,023

that's more than we can read, right?

841

00:58:55,344 --> 00:58:59,406

But there's the perverse incentives in

academia now that kind of force you to do

842

00:58:59,406 --> 00:59:04,489

this, which means also that like most of

those papers shouldn't have been written,

843

00:59:05,750 --> 00:59:11,394

I think it would be better if we had a

more careful approach where the result is

844

00:59:11,394 --> 00:59:17,299

fewer papers that are better written.

845

00:59:17,299 --> 00:59:19,701

Yeah, that could have been more.

846

00:59:19,701 --> 00:59:24,305

And also it's something we've talked about

on the podcast several times, incentives

847

00:59:24,305 --> 00:59:27,127

in academia.

848

00:59:27,488 --> 00:59:30,951

It's hard to change, but needs to be

changed.

849

00:59:30,951 --> 00:59:33,353

But yeah, hopefully that will...

850

00:59:34,450 --> 00:59:37,991

And having people like you in academia

definitely helps.

851

00:59:39,952 --> 00:59:42,653

Well, hopefully with time, it's going to

evolve.

852

00:59:42,653 --> 00:59:49,276

But yeah, and we could continue on that

road, but it's going to be a three-hours

853

00:59:49,276 --> 00:59:53,277

episode, and I don't want to take too much

time to you.

854

00:59:53,497 --> 00:59:59,240

And actually, that's a very, it's the very

first episode that we do where we are

855

00:59:59,240 --> 01:00:01,120

actually time traveling, right?

856

01:00:01,120 --> 01:00:03,941

Because it's still January 15 for me.

857

01:00:04,190 --> 01:00:08,292

at night and it is January 16th in the

morning for Chris.

858

01:00:08,292 --> 01:00:12,574

So thank you for calling from the future,

Chris.

859

01:00:12,574 --> 01:00:14,355

We solved the glass problem.

860

01:00:14,415 --> 01:00:16,096

The sun rises tomorrow.

861

01:00:16,316 --> 01:00:18,617

Yeah, I can tell you that.

862

01:00:18,617 --> 01:00:21,019

Yeah, I can see for now, no apocalypse.

863

01:00:21,019 --> 01:00:22,739

So that's cool.

864

01:00:23,320 --> 01:00:24,560

Glad about that.

865

01:00:26,822 --> 01:00:32,525

Yeah, I had other things to add about your

very good points about communication and

866

01:00:32,525 --> 01:00:32,885

so on.

867

01:00:32,885 --> 01:00:34,145

But of course I...

868

01:00:34,350 --> 01:00:36,770

I think I forgot about them.

869

01:00:37,030 --> 01:00:40,631

I will just refer people to the show

notes.

870

01:00:40,631 --> 01:00:45,933

I'm gonna put the episodes I mentioned in

there.

871

01:00:47,173 --> 01:00:53,215

And oh yeah, one thing, I tracked down the

Python package I was talking about for

872

01:00:54,935 --> 01:00:56,075

Astrophysics.

873

01:00:56,356 --> 01:00:59,236

So the package is actually called

Exoplanet.

874

01:00:59,337 --> 01:01:02,897

And yeah, it's a package that's built on

top of PymC.

875

01:01:03,666 --> 01:01:08,970

to do probabilistic modeling of time

series data in astronomy with a focus on

876

01:01:08,970 --> 01:01:10,812

observations of exoplanets.

877

01:01:11,553 --> 01:01:16,417

So I put the notes, the link already in

the show notes, and that's developed

878

01:01:16,417 --> 01:01:19,059

mainly by Dan, Ferm, and Mackey.

879

01:01:19,620 --> 01:01:24,584

So people who are working on that

definitely take a look at a very cool

880

01:01:24,584 --> 01:01:29,368

package, very well maintained.

881

01:01:29,368 --> 01:01:30,349

So Chris.

882

01:01:30,926 --> 01:01:36,827

I've already taken a lot of time from you,

but I'm curious.

883

01:01:37,947 --> 01:01:39,808

I want to talk a bit about your children's

book.

884

01:01:39,808 --> 01:01:47,470

Of course, you've written about quantum

physics, about general relativity.

885

01:01:48,550 --> 01:01:52,971

Patient statistics also, you've written a

book, I think, about that.

886

01:01:52,971 --> 01:01:55,832

First, I'm definitely going to buy those

books if one day I have kids.

887

01:01:55,832 --> 01:01:58,293

That's for sure.

888

01:01:58,293 --> 01:02:00,853

I'm not going to read them stories

about...

889

01:02:02,595 --> 01:02:07,598

crystals and things like that, much more

about that kind of thing.

890

01:02:07,598 --> 01:02:13,562

No, first, keening aside that I think

that's a very good service you're making

891

01:02:13,562 --> 01:02:21,428

because definitely there is a big lack of

scientific culture, I would say in

892

01:02:21,428 --> 01:02:26,030

general, in the audience, just

understanding probability.

893

01:02:26,371 --> 01:02:30,314

The main thing I have to face is often

things like

894

01:02:30,314 --> 01:02:35,035

Well, you said that thing would happen

with a 30% chance.

895

01:02:35,896 --> 01:02:37,116

It didn't happen.

896

01:02:37,116 --> 01:02:39,297

Hence the model was wrong.

897

01:02:40,118 --> 01:02:45,080

And that's just like, this is kind of the,

this part of the misconceptions on, on the

898

01:02:45,080 --> 01:02:48,141

part of, this is the burden of a

statistician.

899

01:02:48,381 --> 01:02:57,805

But I think it's extremely important to

make people more aware of the scientific

900

01:02:57,805 --> 01:03:00,045

methods, more scientific savvy.

901

01:03:00,678 --> 01:03:05,521

First pick is way more interesting than

what pop culture makes it look like.

902

01:03:05,521 --> 01:03:06,902

You know, you don't have to be crazy.

903

01:03:06,902 --> 01:03:09,124

You don't have to wear a white coat.

904

01:03:09,724 --> 01:03:12,866

You don't have to be a genius to

understand science.

905

01:03:13,727 --> 01:03:16,869

And you don't have to be a genius to use

science.

906

01:03:17,850 --> 01:03:21,372

So, yeah, I think it's extremely important

what you're doing.

907

01:03:21,673 --> 01:03:28,350

And mainly to go to my question, how, how

do you approach simply

908

01:03:28,350 --> 01:03:37,676

simplifying such complex topics for young

minds and yeah, how do you think about the

909

01:03:37,676 --> 01:03:39,677

way you teach that?

910

01:03:42,122 --> 01:03:43,483

Yeah, that's a good question.

911

01:03:43,483 --> 01:03:45,464

I think you hit on a lot of good points.

912

01:03:45,644 --> 01:03:49,528

And there's a lot of obvious traps that

people fall into, right?

913

01:03:49,528 --> 01:03:58,294

That you might think, well, science is

boring, so we need to spice it up.

914

01:03:58,675 --> 01:03:59,636

This happens all the time.

915

01:03:59,636 --> 01:04:03,679

If you see scientists on daytime

television or whatever, they inevitably do

916

01:04:03,679 --> 01:04:07,763

some chemistry experiment where there's

some explosion and gives people a really

917

01:04:07,763 --> 01:04:10,245

distorted view of what science is.

918

01:04:10,245 --> 01:04:11,785

Not only is it...

919

01:04:12,514 --> 01:04:21,759

People think that it's old white dudes in

lab coats and geniuses, but also people

920

01:04:21,759 --> 01:04:27,181

have this misconception that it's all

about excitement and explosions and

921

01:04:27,902 --> 01:04:31,464

chemical reactions and cosmic awesomeness.

922

01:04:32,425 --> 01:04:39,288

But science is at its core, this

fundamental framework for navigating the

923

01:04:39,288 --> 01:04:41,509

world in the...

924

01:04:41,770 --> 01:04:43,871

most sensible way possible.

925

01:04:43,991 --> 01:04:51,795

So when I approach the children's books, I

try to really simplify not only the

926

01:04:51,795 --> 01:04:56,378

concepts, but just that overall sense of

what I'm trying to do.

927

01:04:56,438 --> 01:05:09,065

I'm not trying to create some extrapolated

vision, some way too exciting picture of

928

01:05:09,065 --> 01:05:10,385

what science is.

929

01:05:10,698 --> 01:05:17,101

What I try to do is I try to give

examples, analogies, categories, kind of

930

01:05:17,101 --> 01:05:30,649

abstract things that give people some

comfort, some tools that they can use to

931

01:05:30,649 --> 01:05:36,332

try to understand or appreciate what's

happening in these fields.

932

01:05:39,398 --> 01:05:44,039

it becomes obvious that the books are for

parents, not necessarily for babies.

933

01:05:44,039 --> 01:05:50,022

Um, and I think a lot of the feedback that

I get is from parents who say things like,

934

01:05:50,022 --> 01:05:55,084

Oh, I wish I had learned this topic in

school in this way.

935

01:05:55,084 --> 01:05:55,324

Right.

936

01:05:55,324 --> 01:06:03,127

Uh, and you know, it all boils down to

this, this notion that when we learn

937

01:06:03,127 --> 01:06:08,709

things, what, what we're doing is just

building up our repertoire of

938

01:06:09,630 --> 01:06:12,771

of analogies that we can use to understand

them.

939

01:06:12,991 --> 01:06:16,753

And the more that you have, the better,

right?

940

01:06:16,753 --> 01:06:19,594

And the sooner you start, the better.

941

01:06:20,274 --> 01:06:27,017

I think there is a misconception that

there's one unique special way to

942

01:06:27,017 --> 01:06:28,037

understand a concept.

943

01:06:28,037 --> 01:06:32,619

And if it's only told to you in that way,

some light bulb moment will happen in

944

01:06:32,619 --> 01:06:34,740

which you all of a sudden understand it.

945

01:06:34,740 --> 01:06:36,441

But that's just not

946

01:06:38,958 --> 01:06:43,679

you at some point in the future, you say,

Oh, I feel like I understand that.

947

01:06:43,679 --> 01:06:45,960

But there wasn't a, there wasn't a turning

point.

948

01:06:45,960 --> 01:06:47,021

There wasn't a light bulb moment.

949

01:06:47,021 --> 01:06:48,341

There wasn't a switch.

950

01:06:48,341 --> 01:06:57,064

It was just time and, and building up

those, those analogies and examples that

951

01:06:57,064 --> 01:07:00,545

at some point you just feel comfortable

and that's all there is to it.

952

01:07:02,766 --> 01:07:04,566

So it's actually surprisingly easy.

953

01:07:04,566 --> 01:07:06,406

It's a lot easier than people think.

954

01:07:06,406 --> 01:07:14,909

Uh, you know, because the, the task that I

set myself is, is not such a high bar, you

955

01:07:14,909 --> 01:07:22,131

know, just give a simple palatable analogy

for some core concept in the thing that

956

01:07:22,131 --> 01:07:29,013

you're talking about that, that anyone can

understand.

957

01:07:29,013 --> 01:07:30,933

Hmm.

958

01:07:30,933 --> 01:07:31,133

Mm hmm.

959

01:07:31,133 --> 01:07:31,253

Yeah.

960

01:07:31,253 --> 01:07:31,833

Um, yeah, definitely.

961

01:07:31,833 --> 01:07:32,533

It's.

962

01:07:33,330 --> 01:07:37,931

Again, extremely important, so thanks a

lot for doing that.

963

01:07:38,131 --> 01:07:46,573

And I do think that it's very important to

make science more, look more human and

964

01:07:46,573 --> 01:07:53,095

write it more and more approachable

because I often people see that as very

965

01:07:53,095 --> 01:08:00,257

dry endeavor, but I think actually

counting stories.

966

01:08:00,446 --> 01:08:04,127

about science and scientists and normal

scientists, right?

967

01:08:04,127 --> 01:08:12,931

Not the weird scientists from the movies

is extremely important because that's also

968

01:08:12,931 --> 01:08:13,771

how we learn, right?

969

01:08:13,771 --> 01:08:14,532

We learn a lot.

970

01:08:14,532 --> 01:08:16,012

Our brain is like that.

971

01:08:16,012 --> 01:08:19,454

We love stories and we love learning

through stories.

972

01:08:20,174 --> 01:08:25,196

Like every equation you learned at school

has actually a story behind it.

973

01:08:25,196 --> 01:08:26,677

Lots of people have worked on it.

974

01:08:26,677 --> 01:08:27,977

Lots of people have.

975

01:08:28,262 --> 01:08:33,545

failed and depressed because they couldn't

find the solution.

976

01:08:33,545 --> 01:08:38,509

And thanks to their work, then afterwards

it unblocked a lot of things that you can

977

01:08:38,509 --> 01:08:39,909

actually do now.

978

01:08:41,351 --> 01:08:48,636

Just knowing about relativity makes us

able to be located through our phone.

979

01:08:48,636 --> 01:08:53,619

We can use GPS very accurately because we

actually take into account relativity.

980

01:08:53,619 --> 01:08:57,001

Well, it's pretty incredible, right?

981

01:08:57,034 --> 01:08:58,894

I'm guessing most people don't know that.

982

01:08:59,475 --> 01:09:03,216

So yeah, I think it's extremely important.

983

01:09:03,396 --> 01:09:10,959

And actually I've watched very recently a

series, a Netflix series that does an

984

01:09:10,959 --> 01:09:16,401

extremely good job, I found illustrating

science like that.

985

01:09:16,401 --> 01:09:23,544

So it's still of course romanticized a

bit, but first the physics that's in the

986

01:09:23,544 --> 01:09:26,745

show is pretty good and...

987

01:09:26,750 --> 01:09:32,535

accurate, they don't refer to absolutely

completely crazy theories because the

988

01:09:32,535 --> 01:09:40,682

series is called Lost in Space and the

beaches unite.

989

01:09:40,682 --> 01:09:45,186

Something happened on Earth, I'm not going

to spoil it, but something happened on

990

01:09:45,186 --> 01:09:50,991

Earth and then some people had to go and

try and colonize Alpha Centauri and we

991

01:09:50,991 --> 01:09:54,213

follow the adventures of the families who

do that.

992

01:09:54,530 --> 01:09:59,093

The science is pretty good on that and

also the depiction of the science is, I

993

01:09:59,093 --> 01:10:00,454

found, very interesting.

994

01:10:01,015 --> 01:10:07,880

We have some very interesting scenes where

it's like, oh, that's magic.

995

01:10:07,880 --> 01:10:08,781

That's not magic.

996

01:10:08,781 --> 01:10:10,583

That's math.

997

01:10:10,583 --> 01:10:11,903

That was really cool.

998

01:10:14,165 --> 01:10:18,069

I'm not going to spoil, but I definitely

recommend this series.

999

01:10:18,069 --> 01:10:19,569

It's really well done.

Speaker:

01:10:22,422 --> 01:10:25,403

And of course, well, your book, Chris.

Speaker:

01:10:26,804 --> 01:10:32,306

And well, I think we could, we can call it

a show, I think, because I've already

Speaker:

01:10:32,306 --> 01:10:33,966

taken a lot of time from you.

Speaker:

01:10:33,966 --> 01:10:38,508

And for people watching the video, you can

see that the sun is setting down for me.

Speaker:

01:10:38,508 --> 01:10:42,050

So the, the luminosity is getting down.

Speaker:

01:10:42,350 --> 01:10:48,432

But I'd like, so before the last two

questions, my last question would be a bit

Speaker:

01:10:48,432 --> 01:10:49,933

of a general one.

Speaker:

01:10:50,093 --> 01:10:51,213

If you have any.

Speaker:

01:10:52,439 --> 01:10:58,708

advice, Chris, for students or young

researchers interested in quantum physics

Speaker:

01:10:58,708 --> 01:11:04,897

or even patient statistics, what advice

would you give them to start in these

Speaker:

01:11:04,897 --> 01:11:05,637

fields?

Speaker:

01:11:07,742 --> 01:11:14,845

Yeah, I think for young people that have

time on their hands, my advice is quite

Speaker:

01:11:14,845 --> 01:11:18,347

simple is to study mathematics.

Speaker:

01:11:18,708 --> 01:11:23,951

Mathematics is obviously the foundation of

statistics, also the foundation of quantum

Speaker:

01:11:23,951 --> 01:11:25,611

physics and all of physics.

Speaker:

01:11:25,832 --> 01:11:31,074

I see students coming into university who

are very excited about science.

Speaker:

01:11:31,074 --> 01:11:34,717

They come in, they say, I've read all of

Brian Greene's books and Stephen Hawking's

Speaker:

01:11:34,717 --> 01:11:35,477

books.

Speaker:

01:11:36,906 --> 01:11:38,506

I'm here to be a scientist.

Speaker:

01:11:39,646 --> 01:11:41,647

I live to be a quantum physicist.

Speaker:

01:11:41,787 --> 01:11:45,048

And then you hand them a test with only

math problems on it.

Speaker:

01:11:45,528 --> 01:11:49,709

And they get very deflated because nobody

told them that it was all about math.

Speaker:

01:11:50,569 --> 01:11:53,850

So it's the way that I came into the

field.

Speaker:

01:11:53,850 --> 01:11:56,731

I was never really interested in physics

or science.

Speaker:

01:11:56,731 --> 01:11:58,471

I was a math student.

Speaker:

01:11:58,591 --> 01:12:04,533

And when I finished my degree, it was more

about how am I going to apply my skills in

Speaker:

01:12:04,533 --> 01:12:06,253

solving math problems.

Speaker:

01:12:06,862 --> 01:12:09,022

And that served me very well.

Speaker:

01:12:09,062 --> 01:12:12,903

So yeah, become proficient at mathematics.

Speaker:

01:12:12,903 --> 01:12:16,524

There's lots of fun stuff in mathematics

when you, you know, at the surface level,

Speaker:

01:12:16,524 --> 01:12:18,465

depending on the way it's taught can feel

boring.

Speaker:

01:12:18,465 --> 01:12:24,587

And, but yeah, the further you dig deep

into it, the more interesting and more

Speaker:

01:12:24,587 --> 01:12:30,409

exciting it gets, and it will provide you

with a deeper understanding of the field

Speaker:

01:12:30,409 --> 01:12:33,469

that you end up applying it to then.

Speaker:

01:12:33,598 --> 01:12:38,101

than you could have ever imagined and

certainly more so than the people that are

Speaker:

01:12:38,101 --> 01:12:40,223

just still at that surface level.

Speaker:

01:12:40,583 --> 01:12:43,185

So yeah, that would be my advice.

Speaker:

01:12:43,226 --> 01:12:50,512

Also, especially for young people, for

students, life is very long and now is the

Speaker:

01:12:50,512 --> 01:12:54,715

time that you're encouraged to make

mistakes.

Speaker:

01:12:54,715 --> 01:13:01,341

And it's really the only time in your life

where you can make mistakes and get rapid

Speaker:

01:13:01,341 --> 01:13:02,361

feedback.

Speaker:

01:13:02,994 --> 01:13:06,474

And that's the thing that's encouraged and

that's the best way to learn.

Speaker:

01:13:06,494 --> 01:13:13,716

So, you know, approach it from that

perspective and also drag it out as long

Speaker:

01:13:13,716 --> 01:13:16,417

as you possibly can.

Speaker:

01:13:16,417 --> 01:13:17,077

Yeah.

Speaker:

01:13:18,098 --> 01:13:21,398

Completely agree with these

recommendations.

Speaker:

01:13:22,379 --> 01:13:31,421

Learn math and learn it well and take

risks very, very young and for the most

Speaker:

01:13:31,421 --> 01:13:32,521

time you can.

Speaker:

01:13:33,478 --> 01:13:36,800

Because yeah, that's definitely helpful.

Speaker:

01:13:37,080 --> 01:13:41,463

Even financially, like a good financial

advice, if you have to take risk and put

Speaker:

01:13:41,463 --> 01:13:44,985

all most of your money on stocks, that

would be when you're young and then when

Speaker:

01:13:44,985 --> 01:13:50,468

you get older, you get a bit less, a bit

more risk averse on your portfolio

Speaker:

01:13:50,468 --> 01:13:50,968

investment.

Speaker:

01:13:50,968 --> 01:13:54,710

Well, I would say that's the same thing

for life and for rapid feedback and

Speaker:

01:13:54,710 --> 01:14:00,053

failure when you are young and not having

your responsibilities to do that, you

Speaker:

01:14:00,053 --> 01:14:01,493

know, take the risks.

Speaker:

01:14:01,682 --> 01:14:02,822

And learn math.

Speaker:

01:14:03,283 --> 01:14:04,883

That's not a risk at all.

Speaker:

01:14:06,024 --> 01:14:06,685

Awesome, Chris.

Speaker:

01:14:06,685 --> 01:14:09,127

Well, I'm going to let you go.

Speaker:

01:14:09,127 --> 01:14:13,269

But before that, I'm going to ask you the

last two questions I gave a guest at the

Speaker:

01:14:13,269 --> 01:14:14,370

end of the show.

Speaker:

01:14:14,610 --> 01:14:19,413

First one, if you had unlimited time and

resources, which problem would you try to

Speaker:

01:14:19,413 --> 01:14:20,093

solve?

Speaker:

01:14:22,014 --> 01:14:25,995

I think that's easy, at least in my

discipline, I would build a large scale

Speaker:

01:14:25,995 --> 01:14:31,516

quantum computer and then I would set it

on the task of simulating various

Speaker:

01:14:31,516 --> 01:14:35,597

materials until it found a high

temperature or room temperature

Speaker:

01:14:35,597 --> 01:14:37,178

superconducting material.

Speaker:

01:14:37,478 --> 01:14:41,959

And then we'd build that and go, have free

energy around the world.

Speaker:

01:14:42,839 --> 01:14:44,500

That sounds nice.

Speaker:

01:14:44,660 --> 01:14:45,060

I love that.

Speaker:

01:14:45,060 --> 01:14:47,661

Yeah, awesome.

Speaker:

01:14:47,661 --> 01:14:50,201

You're the first one to answer that, but

love it.

Speaker:

01:14:51,378 --> 01:14:55,948

And second question, if you could have

dinner with any great scientific mind that

Speaker:

01:14:55,948 --> 01:14:58,613

alive or fictional, who would it be?

Speaker:

01:15:01,726 --> 01:15:06,987

Yeah, I mean, these sorts of questions I

think are difficult, especially for

Speaker:

01:15:07,688 --> 01:15:09,588

someone with an analytical brain.

Speaker:

01:15:09,988 --> 01:15:15,270

You know, you've got the one, the devil on

your shoulder saying, yeah, play along,

Speaker:

01:15:15,270 --> 01:15:16,870

it's a whimsical game.

Speaker:

01:15:19,611 --> 01:15:20,712

I thought about this actually.

Speaker:

01:15:20,712 --> 01:15:25,893

So I think there'd be some inherent

problems with obviously with a dead

Speaker:

01:15:25,893 --> 01:15:26,853

scientist.

Speaker:

01:15:27,782 --> 01:15:30,184

You know, there's obvious problems, but I

think the ones that people don't think

Speaker:

01:15:30,184 --> 01:15:37,471

about are Say, you know, I brought what I

Guess this is a magical scenario, but I

Speaker:

01:15:37,471 --> 01:15:40,714

don't know if it's I go back in time or

they come to our time But in some sense,

Speaker:

01:15:40,714 --> 01:15:45,318

it doesn't matter So I would prefer they

come to our time because you know, if go

Speaker:

01:15:45,318 --> 01:15:49,802

far enough in the past and they don't even

have toilets So let's bring them to our

Speaker:

01:15:49,802 --> 01:15:51,263

time, but there's a problem.

Speaker:

01:15:51,263 --> 01:15:54,270

Like if I brought Einstein here what

Speaker:

01:15:54,270 --> 01:15:55,150

what would I have to do?

Speaker:

01:15:55,150 --> 01:15:59,333

Would I have to explain a century of

advancements in like the actual field that

Speaker:

01:15:59,333 --> 01:16:00,074

he came up with?

Speaker:

01:16:00,074 --> 01:16:03,116

And would he even accept it?

Speaker:

01:16:03,116 --> 01:16:09,220

Like even in his lifetime, he refused to

accept all of the consequences of quantum

Speaker:

01:16:09,220 --> 01:16:09,620

physics.

Speaker:

01:16:09,620 --> 01:16:15,204

So, you know, it actually wouldn't be a

great conversation.

Speaker:

01:16:15,204 --> 01:16:20,608

I think scientists from the past would

just be, it would be too difficult to

Speaker:

01:16:20,608 --> 01:16:21,628

communicate.

Speaker:

01:16:23,382 --> 01:16:25,383

magically overcome say some language

barrier.

Speaker:

01:16:25,383 --> 01:16:30,667

Like they're, yeah, the contributions they

made obviously are timeless, but like that

Speaker:

01:16:30,667 --> 01:16:34,730

conversation that you could have wouldn't

be very insightful.

Speaker:

01:16:34,770 --> 01:16:38,713

So I feel like you'd have to go with a

living scientist, but then the problem

Speaker:

01:16:38,713 --> 01:16:43,176

with a living scientist is like, I can

just email them if I had a specific

Speaker:

01:16:43,176 --> 01:16:44,096

question.

Speaker:

01:16:44,757 --> 01:16:49,881

So it seems like far more, far easier

than...

Speaker:

01:16:50,978 --> 01:16:55,380

than organizing some dinner, which you can

have when you go to conferences anyway.

Speaker:

01:16:55,380 --> 01:16:59,222

So I've been to dinner with Nobel

laureates and stuff and celebrity

Speaker:

01:16:59,222 --> 01:17:02,964

scientists, and one of them was probably

enough.

Speaker:

01:17:04,005 --> 01:17:07,367

So then I think you're forced to go with a

fictional character.

Speaker:

01:17:07,367 --> 01:17:12,990

I don't know how many of your guests pick

a fictional character, but my favorite

Speaker:

01:17:12,990 --> 01:17:19,973

fictional character with a self-proclaimed

great mind is Marvin.

Speaker:

01:17:20,174 --> 01:17:23,114

paranoid android from the Hitchhiker's

Guide to the Galaxy.

Speaker:

01:17:23,114 --> 01:17:29,156

So I would uh, I'd have dinner with Marvin

and I know exactly what I'd ask him to.

Speaker:

01:17:29,156 --> 01:17:31,256

I'd ask him about AI alignment.

Speaker:

01:17:31,397 --> 01:17:37,318

Um, because I think it seems to, he seems

to have been solved with Marvin and uh, I

Speaker:

01:17:37,318 --> 01:17:44,100

think he would just give a wonderfully

nihilistic answer to what is AI alignment.

Speaker:

01:17:44,300 --> 01:17:45,700

Yeah.

Speaker:

01:17:45,700 --> 01:17:47,521

Yeah, no, that'd be fun.

Speaker:

01:17:47,521 --> 01:17:49,441

Yeah.

Speaker:

01:17:50,394 --> 01:17:51,534

I take part in this dinner.

Speaker:

01:17:51,534 --> 01:17:52,255

I don't know.

Speaker:

01:17:52,255 --> 01:17:53,715

Let me know when that happens.

Speaker:

01:17:55,236 --> 01:18:00,719

You want, oh, you want a bonus question,

uh, physics related, a choice like that.

Speaker:

01:18:00,719 --> 01:18:07,043

We had to make, uh, last time we did a

retreat at PIMC Labs, we do a retreat, uh,

Speaker:

01:18:07,043 --> 01:18:08,003

every year.

Speaker:

01:18:08,584 --> 01:18:11,365

And, uh, of course, it's just a bunch of

nerds getting together.

Speaker:

01:18:11,365 --> 01:18:14,987

So we always end up with, uh, very nerdy

questions.

Speaker:

01:18:15,407 --> 01:18:19,909

And, um, yeah, this year, I think one of

the main questions where

Speaker:

01:18:20,230 --> 01:18:28,777

So yeah, the year before, one of the main

questions was who would win in a plane

Speaker:

01:18:28,777 --> 01:18:34,921

war, so in an airplane war, Earth or

Jupiterians.

Speaker:

01:18:35,382 --> 01:18:42,007

And this year, but the one I want your

input on is this year was, if you could

Speaker:

01:18:42,007 --> 01:18:47,131

choose between these three options, which

one would you choose?

Speaker:

01:18:47,132 --> 01:18:49,738

If you could know what's...

Speaker:

01:18:49,738 --> 01:18:52,679

like what it's like to be in the quantum

realm?

Speaker:

01:18:53,961 --> 01:18:59,844

Or if you could go inside a black hole and

know what's there?

Speaker:

01:19:01,026 --> 01:19:08,031

Or if you could go to an alien planet and

meet them and talk with them, what would

Speaker:

01:19:08,031 --> 01:19:08,371

you choose?

Speaker:

01:19:08,371 --> 01:19:09,391

Right.

Speaker:

01:19:10,072 --> 01:19:12,153

Uh, there's only one, there's only one

correct choice.

Speaker:

01:19:12,153 --> 01:19:17,910

It's the third one because the other, the

other two, uh, would be bad.

Speaker:

01:19:17,910 --> 01:19:18,510

bad decisions.

Speaker:

01:19:18,510 --> 01:19:22,151

So it's the alien planet, yeah.

Speaker:

01:19:22,151 --> 01:19:23,331

There is no quantum realm.

Speaker:

01:19:23,331 --> 01:19:24,811

I wrote a blog post about that.

Speaker:

01:19:24,811 --> 01:19:27,052

I'll give you the link for the listeners.

Speaker:

01:19:27,952 --> 01:19:28,292

Oh, perfect.

Speaker:

01:19:28,292 --> 01:19:30,053

So you can't go there, obviously.

Speaker:

01:19:30,573 --> 01:19:37,095

There's technical challenges clearly with

shrinking a human, but also, yeah, our

Speaker:

01:19:37,095 --> 01:19:44,937

entire sense of perception is built on our

mesoscopic relationship with the world.

Speaker:

01:19:47,830 --> 01:19:51,452

Like clearly there'd be no sound, there'd

be no notion of sight.

Speaker:

01:19:53,134 --> 01:20:01,421

So even if you could get around this weird

idea of shrinking yourself, it wouldn't be

Speaker:

01:20:01,421 --> 01:20:03,442

a place to experience.

Speaker:

01:20:04,203 --> 01:20:08,026

And then inside a black hole, every

direction points down and you'd be

Speaker:

01:20:08,026 --> 01:20:08,666

spaghettified.

Speaker:

01:20:08,666 --> 01:20:09,347

So it's a bad idea.

Speaker:

01:20:09,347 --> 01:20:10,148

That'd be a problem.

Speaker:

01:20:10,148 --> 01:20:10,268

Yeah.

Speaker:

01:20:10,268 --> 01:20:12,590

I mean, I love that statement.

Speaker:

01:20:12,590 --> 01:20:14,070

So let's go to the alien planet.

Speaker:

01:20:16,032 --> 01:20:17,773

That's a technical term, actually.

Speaker:

01:20:18,546 --> 01:20:20,067

Yeah, yeah, yeah.

Speaker:

01:20:20,067 --> 01:20:22,948

Spaghettification.

Speaker:

01:20:22,948 --> 01:20:24,689

Yeah, yeah, yeah.

Speaker:

01:20:24,689 --> 01:20:29,632

And yeah, I mean, I'm shocked by the

revelation you just made on this podcast

Speaker:

01:20:29,632 --> 01:20:32,793

that Ant-Man is not a documentary.

Speaker:

01:20:33,514 --> 01:20:36,675

That's just, I'm just shocked.

Speaker:

01:20:36,675 --> 01:20:39,577

So I think it's time to stop the podcast.

Speaker:

01:20:40,037 --> 01:20:44,920

First of all, because I don't have any

more light and second, because well, I've

Speaker:

01:20:44,920 --> 01:20:46,581

taken a lot of time from you.

Speaker:

01:20:46,761 --> 01:20:48,061

Thanks a lot, Chris.

Speaker:

01:20:49,194 --> 01:20:50,555

That was really awesome.

Speaker:

01:20:51,656 --> 01:20:58,540

I learned a lot and we covered a lot of

topics so that was really perfect.

Speaker:

01:20:59,320 --> 01:21:03,643

As usual, I put resources and a link to

our website in the show notes for those

Speaker:

01:21:03,643 --> 01:21:04,964

who want to dig deeper.

Speaker:

01:21:05,104 --> 01:21:08,126

Thank you again, Chris, for taking the

time and being on this show.

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