Learning Bayesian Statistics

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If you’ve ever tried to lose fat or gain muscle, you may have noticed… it’s not easy. But it’s precisely its complexity that makes the science of exercise and nutrition fascinating.

This is the longest LBS episode so far, and you’ll understand why pretty quickly: we covered a very wide range of topics, starting with the concept of metabolic adaptation and how our physiology and brain react to caloric deficits or caloric surpluses.

We also talked about the connection between metabolic adaptation and exercise energy compensation, shedding light on the interactions between the two, and how they make weight management more complex.

Statistics are of utmost importance in these endeavors, so of course we touched on how Bayesian stats can help mitigate the challenges of low sample sizes and over-focus on average treatment effect.

My guest for this marathon episode, is no other than Eric Trexler. Currently at the Department of Evolutionary Anthropology of Duke University, Eric conducts research on metabolism and cardiometabolic health. He has a PhD in Human Movement Science from UNC Chapel Hill, and has published dozens of peer-reviewed research papers related to exercise, nutrition, and metabolism.

In addition, Eric is a former professional bodybuilder and has been coaching clients with goals related to health, fitness, and athletics since 2009.

In other words, get comfy for a broad and nerdy conversation about the mysteries related to energy expenditure regulation, weight management, and evolutionary mechanisms underpinning current health challenges.

Our theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work at https://bababrinkman.com/ !

Thank you to my Patrons for making this episode possible!

Yusuke Saito, Avi Bryant, Ero Carrera, Giuliano Cruz, Tim Gasser, James Wade, Tradd Salvo, William Benton, James Ahloy, Robin Taylor,, Chad Scherrer, Zwelithini Tunyiswa, Bertrand Wilden, James Thompson, Stephen Oates, Gian Luca Di Tanna, Jack Wells, Matthew Maldonado, Ian Costley, Ally Salim, Larry Gill, Ian Moran, Paul Oreto, Colin Caprani, Colin Carroll, Nathaniel Burbank, Michael Osthege, Rémi Louf, Clive Edelsten, Henri Wallen, Hugo Botha, Vinh Nguyen, Raul Maldonado, Marcin Elantkowski, Adam C. Smith, Will Kurt, Andrew Moskowitz, Hector Munoz, Marco Gorelli, Simon Kessell, Bradley Rode, Patrick Kelley, Rick Anderson, Casper de Bruin, Philippe Labonde, Michael Hankin, Cameron Smith, Tomáš Frýda, Ryan Wesslen, Andreas Netti, Riley King, Yoshiyuki Hamajima, Sven De Maeyer, Michael DeCrescenzo, Fergal M, Mason Yahr, Naoya Kanai, Steven Rowland, Aubrey Clayton, Jeannine Sue, Omri Har Shemesh, Scott Anthony Robson, Robert Yolken, Or Duek, Pavel Dusek, Paul Cox, Trey Causey, Andreas Kröpelin, Raphaël R, Nicolas Rode, Gabriel Stechschulte, Arkady, Kurt TeKolste, Gergely Juhasz, Marcus Nölke, Maggi Mackintosh, Grant Pezzolesi, Avram Aelony, Joshua Meehl, Javier Sabio, Kristian Higgins, Alex Jones, Gregorio Aguilar and Matt Rosinski.

Visit https://www.patreon.com/learnbayesstats to unlock exclusive Bayesian swag 😉

Links from the show:

Abstract

by Christoph Bamberg

In episode 89, we cover a so-far underrepresented topic on this podcast: Nutrition science, sports science, their relation and of course, the role of Bayesian statistics in that field. 

Eric Trexler is the one introducing us to this topic. With his PhD in Human Movement Science from UNC Chapel Hill, previous career as professional bodybuilder and extensive experience as a health and fitness coach, he is perfectly suited for the job.

We cover a lot of ground in this episode, focusing on the science of weight-loss and the challenges to losing weight after a certain point due to an adapted energy expenditure. 

We look at energy expenditure and changes in metabolism from several angles, including the evolutionary background for these adaptations and how they affect us in modern times.

We also discuss how individually people react to calorie restriction or surplus, different approaches to motivate oneself to loose weight and the overall complexity of this topic.

In the later half of the episode, we focus more on the scientific practices in sports science and how they can be improved.

One way forward is, of course, to use more Bayesian statistics, especially because of the oftentimes small sample sizes in Eric’s field.

Transcript

This is an automatic transcript and may therefore contain errors. Please get in touch if you’re willing to correct them.

Transcript
[Alex Andorra]:

Eric Trexler, welcome to Learning Bayesian Statistics.

[Eric]:

Thanks. Yeah. Great to be here.

[Alex Andorra]:

Yeah, thank you for taking the time. I am really happy to have you on the

[Alex Andorra]:

show for a lot of reasons. The main one is that you work on really interesting

[Alex Andorra]:

topics, at least to me. I've been nerding out on your content for the last

[Alex Andorra]:

few months, and I really love it because it's basically scientific breakdown.

[Alex Andorra]:

of the sports and nutrition sciences literature. So I am pretty sure that

[Alex Andorra]:

my listeners will at least appreciate the very nerdy sciences side. This is actually

[Alex Andorra]:

the very first podcast I'm doing about fitness topic, which I discovered as

[Alex Andorra]:

I dove into the literature. It's actually a very nerdy topic, so I'm really

[Alex Andorra]:

happy about it. And so I would encourage. all of my listeners to actually

[Alex Andorra]:

pay attention to it a bit more if they are not, because it's extremely interesting.

[Alex Andorra]:

And it's also good for your health and body. So several birds with just

[Alex Andorra]:

one stone. So let's start. Lots of questions for you. But as usual, let's start

[Alex Andorra]:

with your origin story, Eric. So yeah, basically, how did you come to the

[Alex Andorra]:

world of? sports and nutrition sciences and what was the egg and the chicken?

[Alex Andorra]:

Did sports come first or did science come first in your interests?

[Eric]:

Yeah. I mean, so like a lot of people in my field, uh, the sport came first. And

[Eric]:

then at

[Alex Andorra]:

Uh-huh.

[Eric]:

some point you have to figure out what you're going to do with your life. And then

[Eric]:

the science becomes a little bit more pertinent, uh, unless you're going to become

[Eric]:

a professional athlete. Uh,

[Alex Andorra]:

Mm-hmm.

[Eric]:

which not, not particularly likely based on the, uh, based on the percentages there.

[Eric]:

So I started out, um, really enjoying sports, uh, mostly football, baseball and wrestling.

[Eric]:

So.

[Alex Andorra]:

Mm-hmm.

[Eric]:

Those are all in different seasons, so it'd keep me busy all year. Football got

[Eric]:

me really interested in wanting to get bigger and stronger.

[Alex Andorra]:

Mm-hmm.

[Eric]:

And then later I started wrestling and had to do weight manipulation. I had to lose

[Eric]:

weight, stay lean, try to maximize not just total strength, but strength relative

[Eric]:

to body mass. So I started different types of, you know, strategies to, to lose

[Eric]:

body fat while keeping muscle and then,

[Alex Andorra]:

Mm-hmm.

[Eric]:

you know, weight. You know, water related strategies, kind of adjusting hydration based

[Eric]:

on when weigh-ins are and, you know, trying to dehydrate for weigh-ins safely and

[Eric]:

rehydrate when I needed to really be at my best. So yeah, I just kind of became

[Eric]:

fascinated with these topics and really tried to be very analytical about what I was

[Eric]:

doing. Even I mean, I was obsessed with fitness by 12 and by 16 was starting to kind

[Eric]:

of dig into the nuances of nutrition. And so my career trajectory really kind of

[Eric]:

took off from there.

[Alex Andorra]:

Yeah, that's extremely early. Were your parents already into fitness topics

[Alex Andorra]:

like that? Or did you meet someone that was really into that and introduced you?

[Alex Andorra]:

Or was it just you at 12 starting to look into all that?

[Eric]:

Yeah, I mean, it was when I was 12, I just love sports. It was not something that

[Eric]:

was really emphasized by my family. My parents were not like fitness enthusiasts

[Eric]:

by any means.

[Alex Andorra]:

Mm-hmm.

[Eric]:

So for me, it was just, I just wanted to be better at football, which I loved. And

[Eric]:

I was the only person in my family that really cared that much about football.

[Alex Andorra]:

Mm-hmm.

[Eric]:

Um, when I was wrestling, I will say there was a particular coach. who was a really

[Eric]:

avid fitness enthusiast and we would train together and he would kind of give me,

[Eric]:

he was a subscriber to Muscle and Fitness Magazine and when he was done with an issue,

[Eric]:

he'd say, here you go, you can have this one. And that kind of, the way that we

[Eric]:

approached training, it was the first time, for four years, from 12 to 16, I was

[Eric]:

just really doing it alone. Didn't even have a

[Alex Andorra]:

Mm-hmm.

[Eric]:

training partner really. but probably around age 16 when we started training together.

[Eric]:

I feel like then he kind of really took a passion for fitness that I had and really

[Eric]:

developed it into something more where it was not just passionate about fitness, but

[Eric]:

passionate about digging beneath the surface and exploring different strategies.

[Eric]:

It kind of planted that seed. It wasn't rigorous science that he was

[Alex Andorra]:

Mm-hmm.

[Eric]:

giving me, but it was at least that fundamental concept. of exploring, hypothesizing,

[Eric]:

testing, reassessing that kind of iterative process that I think planted the seed.

[Alex Andorra]:

Mm-hmm. Yeah. Um, and I, I found that also fascinating when I started digging

[Alex Andorra]:

into that, um, so yeah, like one of the, one of the things I thought about

[Alex Andorra]:

when you said as, um, like, like a lot of people in your field, sports,

[Alex Andorra]:

uh, came before science. And I finally have the directed acyclic graph now,

[Alex Andorra]:

because I was always wondering, you know, like, of course, science doesn't

[Alex Andorra]:

have as a general. You know, in the general population, when you say you're

[Alex Andorra]:

a scientist, people don't think you're extremely fit. Like they mostly think

[Alex Andorra]:

you're very like kind of nerdy and stuff like that. So, but then you look

[Alex Andorra]:

at the world of sports science is really, you know, on its own because people

[Alex Andorra]:

are extremely fit. They do a lot of sports and they are scientists, which

[Alex Andorra]:

if you go to other fields, I can confirm it's not the same. So it was always

[Alex Andorra]:

like. But I'm wondering what the causality here, like the direction of the

[Alex Andorra]:

causality is. You know, is that because these people applied those strategies,

[Alex Andorra]:

then they became very fit or were they fit already, and then they became

[Alex Andorra]:

interested in the science. So.

[Eric]:

Yeah, I will say though, it can go both directions in the sense that more conventional

[Eric]:

team sports got me into embracing a more scientific approach. But then

[Alex Andorra]:

Mm-hmm.

[Eric]:

as I pushed further in that, it created an interest in bodybuilding for me.

[Alex Andorra]:

Yeah.

[Eric]:

So sports like football and wrestling brought me to science and then science and

[Eric]:

physiology brought me to bodybuilding because I was so fascinated by how physiology

[Eric]:

changes under these extremely unusual constraints that we see with high levels of

[Eric]:

muscularity, low levels of body

[Alex Andorra]:

Mm-hmm.

[Eric]:

fat, severe caloric deprivation, things like that.

[Alex Andorra]:

Mm-hmm. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Definitely the application of the scientific principles

[Alex Andorra]:

then enhances also your training and makes it more efficient, in a way. I mean,

[Alex Andorra]:

most of the time, that means you're not losing too much time at the gym,

[Alex Andorra]:

and you're not leaving gains on the table, which I guess everybody wants.

[Alex Andorra]:

But not everybody thinks about it in a scientific manner, where it's like,

[Alex Andorra]:

I just do the stuff, and then I grind at the gym. But actually, I'm losing

[Alex Andorra]:

time and gains on the table. But here, that's also the thing I really love,

[Alex Andorra]:

is applying these little experiments on myself, and then seeing the science replicating

[Alex Andorra]:

itself is always, for me, incredible.

[Eric]:

Yeah.

[Alex Andorra]:

I forgot what I wanted to ask next, but that's really cool. I love your...

[Alex Andorra]:

path and passion, basically. Like you always, in all of your content, we

[Alex Andorra]:

can refill your passion for your topics. And so I'm wondering basically

[Alex Andorra]:

from what you're saying, I guess what the answer is, but would you say your

[Alex Andorra]:

path was very random or was somewhat clear to where you are now? And basically

[Alex Andorra]:

I'm asking you if... Your career is replicable, Eric, which is what we all care

[Alex Andorra]:

about in this podcast.

[Eric]:

I would say that it is broadly replicable, you know, in the sense of, you know, from starting

[Eric]:

point to outcome. I don't think that there's anything particularly special or unique

[Eric]:

that I have accomplished in my career trajectory. But I will say that zooming in

[Eric]:

a more granular way and looking not just at, you know, point A and point Z, but

[Eric]:

looking at the intermediate steps in between, that

[Alex Andorra]:

Mm-hmm.

[Eric]:

was all random. Uh, it would not be, I don't think you could replicate it. I, there's

[Eric]:

just

[Alex Andorra]:

Yeah.

[Eric]:

a bunch of anyone who looks back at, you know, how they, uh, went through life.

[Eric]:

It's a bunch of random, random choices. Most of the best mistake, the best decisions

[Eric]:

that I've made have been, uh, decisions that I made for the worst reasons possible.

[Eric]:

Right. And so like,

[Alex Andorra]:

Haha.

[Eric]:

I can look back and say, wow, what a great decision and give myself credit

[Alex Andorra]:

Mm-hmm.

[Eric]:

for the outcome. But

[Alex Andorra]:

Yeah.

[Eric]:

I know that the, the reasoning for it. was completely dissociated from, you know,

[Eric]:

why it turned out to be a good decision. So yeah, it's life's weird like that. You know,

[Eric]:

you, you think, you know, when you're making an important decision, you rarely do.

[Eric]:

You know, when you think something is a really important decision, it usually isn't,

[Eric]:

and then the mundane stuff turns out to be the most pivotable, most pivotal, uh,

[Eric]:

turning points in your entire life. So it's been weird. It's been random, uh, wouldn't

[Eric]:

change it. Like where I'm at. Um, And yeah, I mean, I think the biggest thing with

[Eric]:

the path, zooming out a lot and just saying, you know, you like fitness and you

[Eric]:

like science, of course this has been the path. It's easy to do that in retrospect.

[Eric]:

And so in the broadest sense, I'd say, yeah, totally predictable. I'm gonna do something

[Eric]:

involving fitness and science,

[Alex Andorra]:

Mm-hmm.

[Eric]:

but I've been surprised every step of the way in terms

[Alex Andorra]:

Mm-hmm.

[Eric]:

of what that has looked like.

[Alex Andorra]:

Yeah. And I mean, perfect. This is a show about uncertainty and randomness

[Alex Andorra]:

and how to estimate it, but also how to embrace it to better live with

[Alex Andorra]:

it. So, you know, that's perfect. We love random path here. And mine is definitely

[Alex Andorra]:

very random. So, you know, I definitely can relate to that. So now let's

[Alex Andorra]:

turn a bit to what you're doing today. And basically, first, a general perspective

[Alex Andorra]:

is that now you're part of Herman Ponzer's lab at Duke University. Some listeners

[Alex Andorra]:

may have heard of Herman Ponzer's because he wrote a pretty well-known book called

[Alex Andorra]:

Burn, which I put in the show notes. I haven't read it yet, but it's on my

[Alex Andorra]:

reading list. I've been introduced to it. Thanks to your writings mainly Eric,

[Alex Andorra]:

and especially the metabolic adaptation manual that is in the show notes

[Alex Andorra]:

also. And of course, we're going to talk about metabolic adaptation because

[Alex Andorra]:

it's one of your babies. But first, more generally, can you tell us what

[Alex Andorra]:

you're studying at Duke University? And yeah, what's your job nowadays?

[Eric]:

Yeah, it's really crazy to, like I said, didn't predict exactly where I'd end up professionally.

[Eric]:

It's crazy because over the last several years, one of the things I do is the mass research

[Eric]:

review. It's

[Alex Andorra]:

Mm-hmm.

[Eric]:

every month we review current research in exercise and nutrition. We get pretty nerdy

[Eric]:

with some of the stats. Depending on your experience level, you might say, wow,

[Eric]:

this is pretty thorough. But if you're like a bona fide stats expert, you'd say, okay,

[Eric]:

this is... adequate, you know, but, um, but we, we try to make the, the fitness

[Eric]:

and nutrition information very practical, very applicable. And sometimes, you know, we'll

[Eric]:

see a meta analysis that everyone's talking about and say, no, we need to re-crunch

[Eric]:

the numbers and we'll

[Alex Andorra]:

Mm-hmm.

[Eric]:

actually, you know, we'll do it, uh, begrudgingly, cause it's a lot of work sometimes,

[Eric]:

but, um, anyway, so in mass, I had been reviewing Herman's work. Um,

[Alex Andorra]:

Mm-hmm.

[Eric]:

I had reviewed several of his papers in recent years and I, I just kept saying,

[Eric]:

man. this guy in this lab is doing some of the most fascinating research that's happening

[Eric]:

in our fields. And it happens to be right down the road from me. Like

[Alex Andorra]:

Oh yeah.

[Eric]:

I was living, yeah, I was living like 20 minutes from his lab and had never met him,

[Eric]:

had never talked to him. And I was just like, you know, this is the most fascinating

[Eric]:

research that I'm seeing in the last five years or so. And so a position opened

[Eric]:

up in his lab and I said, let's do it. You know, let's go for it. And so that's where

[Eric]:

I am now. Um, it's great working with Herman and, um, just getting started there

[Eric]:

actually. But we have some cool projects going on. I mean, Herman, he's, he's really

[Eric]:

known for his work on the constrained energy expenditure model, which,

[Alex Andorra]:

Mm-hmm.

[Eric]:

uh, is kind of the focus of the book, burn. Which basically indicates that there's

[Eric]:

kind of a surprising, uh, what appears to be a ceiling effect on total

[Alex Andorra]:

Mm-hmm.

[Eric]:

energy expenditure such that. when people are doing a ton of exercise and thinking, man,

[Eric]:

I'm burning all these extra calories, they are increasing their total energy expenditure

[Eric]:

in the vast majority of cases, but a lot of people underestimate the compensatory

[Eric]:

mechanisms by which, as you increase exercise energy expenditure, your body tends

[Eric]:

to do some very subtle things to reduce your basal or resting energy expenditure to

[Eric]:

kind of offset some of that. energetic cost. It's kind of like if you increase expenditures

[Eric]:

in one area of your budget, it would be a nice conservative choice to reduce expenditures

[Eric]:

elsewhere to kind of make the budget work. So that's what we're, that's kind of

[Eric]:

like the main primary focus of the lab is kind of testing out these different constraints

[Eric]:

on energy expenditure and looking at what's really going on during various models

[Eric]:

of increased... energy costs. So looking at fairly intense exercise, looking at things

[Eric]:

like pregnancy, which are

[Alex Andorra]:

Mm-hmm.

[Eric]:

very energy intensive and looking at the combination of the two. So

[Alex Andorra]:

Mm-hmm.

[Eric]:

that's kind of one consistent line of research is looking at those constraints on

[Eric]:

energy expenditure across many different species. So we don't, in our lab, we don't

[Eric]:

only do human research.

[Alex Andorra]:

Mm-hmm.

[Eric]:

You know, there's some animal research in the mix as well. So that's one thing that's

[Eric]:

going on. currently is mostly in some of the applied ramifications of energy

[Alex Andorra]:

Mm-hmm.

[Eric]:

expenditure regulations. So I'm working on a project now where we're looking at folks

[Eric]:

in a fairly high stress occupation and

[Alex Andorra]:

Mm-hmm.

[Eric]:

we're doing a very comprehensive study to explore a variety of outcomes that are remarkably

[Eric]:

wide ranging and comprehensive in nature. So physical activity and energy expenditure

[Eric]:

are a component of the research. but we're also looking at relationships with stress

[Eric]:

and diet. And, um, you know, we're looking at a lot of psychological outcomes on top of

[Eric]:

our physiological outcomes to see, you know, when we look at a total picture of someone

[Eric]:

in a stressful occupation, and we look at their sleep, their physical activity, nutrition,

[Eric]:

uh, their stress management, how do

[Alex Andorra]:

Hehe.

[Eric]:

these affect the broader picture of overall health and wellness? Um, so it's fat.

[Eric]:

It's really fantastic because I, have always loved energy expenditure regulation,

[Eric]:

but one of the things that I think erroneously talked me out of diving straight into research

[Eric]:

after my PhD, I've been doing a lot of research in my PhD, took four or five years,

[Eric]:

did more private business related things, and now I'm back in the research game. One

[Eric]:

of the things that kind of dissuaded me from starting my own lab right away, was

[Eric]:

I felt like I was perhaps too much of a generalist to really sink my teeth into a

[Eric]:

very narrow line of research.

[Alex Andorra]:

Mm-hmm.

[Eric]:

I kind of looked at where are my passions? What is my training background looking like?

[Eric]:

How will I make this all work in a cohesive line of research that is narrow and focused

[Eric]:

enough to make incremental progress in the field? And I was really coming up short

[Eric]:

to be totally candid. And I said,

[Alex Andorra]:

Mm-hmm.

[Eric]:

well, if you can't... really paint that picture, it's probably best to not go and start

[Eric]:

a lab and kind of try to figure it out at some point along the way. After taking a

[Eric]:

few years and embracing the idea of being a generalist and having multifaceted

[Eric]:

interests, I feel totally reinvigorated as a scientist and as a researcher. And this

[Eric]:

is a perfect project to allow me to integrate all those general generalist things

[Eric]:

that I've been kind of exploring over the last several years. I've been writing about

[Eric]:

not just physical activity and energy expenditure, but nutrition and sleep and stress.

[Eric]:

To be able to wrap those all up into a big project is tremendously lucky. Again,

[Eric]:

just totally random, but really fortunate.

[Alex Andorra]:

Mm-hmm. Yeah. And so thanks for this introduction. We're going to dive

[Alex Andorra]:

into these topics, but yeah, like something I learned also by reading your

[Alex Andorra]:

content is how broad basically is the whole field. And it's not just looking

[Alex Andorra]:

at exercise basically in training, but it's also about sleep, about nutrition.

[Alex Andorra]:

Um, something I discovered myself is that nutrition is extremely important. Uh,

[Alex Andorra]:

and, and not that much talked about in, in the end, like people really emphasize

[Alex Andorra]:

the training, but, um, if you forget nutrition, it can really, really hinder

[Alex Andorra]:

you or, uh, on, on the contrary, really help you. So that's definitely something

[Alex Andorra]:

I learned, like basically having that holistic approach to, um, to the. to the

[Alex Andorra]:

training and not only the exercise part for sure. And to relate basically what

[Alex Andorra]:

you said about the constraint energy expenditure model, which I found fascinating

[Alex Andorra]:

also. Basically, it would be for my listeners, if you folks have worked

[Alex Andorra]:

with, for instance, a multinomial model, that could be like that. Multinomial,

[Alex Andorra]:

you have to use a softmax link function and the Toft Max makes it a zero-sum

[Alex Andorra]:

game in a way. So if one category increases, then one other category has to decrease.

[Alex Andorra]:

I'm not sure the constraint energy expenditure model is exactly a zero-sum

[Alex Andorra]:

game in the sense that would mean you cannot make some games after some

[Alex Andorra]:

point, which if I understood correctly, it's not really the case. So you

[Alex Andorra]:

could say, I don't know if it's a one-sum game. So you still make gains, but

[Alex Andorra]:

very small. because the body basically has all these checks and balances

[Alex Andorra]:

to basically prevent you from starvation, which in a way, it's pretty cool.

[Alex Andorra]:

But I found really interesting because nowadays in our current environment,

[Alex Andorra]:

we don't really face that risk a lot, at least in our societies and what basically

[Alex Andorra]:

made us to the... One of the things that help us go to the top of the food

[Alex Andorra]:

chain is today something that really prevents us from making the most muscle

[Alex Andorra]:

gains that we could. I find that kind of ironic. I'm sure Darwin would

[Alex Andorra]:

appreciate it.

[Eric]:

Yeah, and it's funny that you mentioned Darwin because the department that I'm in now

[Eric]:

is evolutionary anthropology. So when we explore these topics of innate inherent

[Eric]:

physiological constraints, a lot of times we do come back to what is the evolutionary

[Eric]:

purpose? You know, in what way would this make sense within an evolutionary framework?

[Eric]:

And when it comes to regulation of body weight and, you know, by extension, energy

[Eric]:

balance, you know, body

[Alex Andorra]:

Mm-hmm.

[Eric]:

weight and body composition are basically a long-term expression of energy

[Alex Andorra]:

Mm-hmm.

[Eric]:

balance over time. Um, it's really fascinating because the two major constraints, we have

[Eric]:

constraints on both boundaries. One is starvation and the other is, uh, thought

[Eric]:

to be predation, you know,

[Alex Andorra]:

Mm-hmm.

[Eric]:

uh, becoming prey of a hunting animal. And it's really fascinating to see how those

[Eric]:

two, I think they're really elegantly described in the dual intervention point model

[Eric]:

by John Speakman, who does a lot of research on energy expenditure regulation.

[Eric]:

And it's really fascinating to look at that and to say, you know, we're now so

[Eric]:

far removed, fortunately, in a lot of developed areas and areas

[Alex Andorra]:

Mm-hmm.

[Eric]:

with, you know, a surplus of resources. It's not true everywhere in the world, but

[Eric]:

in many places, we are very much removed from these two important constraints that really

[Eric]:

dictate everything that we're looking at in terms of energy expenditure and body

[Eric]:

composition.

[Alex Andorra]:

Yeah, yeah, yeah. I find that super interesting. That also makes me wonder,

[Alex Andorra]:

if homo sapiens manage somehow to not destroy the planet and stick around

[Alex Andorra]:

for long enough, would evolution catch up at some point? And we wouldn't see

[Alex Andorra]:

these constrained energy models. But then, who would live in a world where maybe

[Alex Andorra]:

that would be way easier to put on some muscle gains because muscle is

[Alex Andorra]:

not going to be such a drag on your probabilities of surviving. Do you

[Alex Andorra]:

think about those kind of stuff? Or am I the only nerdy guy here thinking about

[Eric]:

Well,

[Alex Andorra]:

that?

[Eric]:

I think largely in the field of evolutionary anthropology, we look at the timeline of

[Alex Andorra]:

Mm-hmm.

[Eric]:

evolutionary history and I think it kind of creates this perspective of perpetually

[Eric]:

looking backward, because you say

[Alex Andorra]:

Mm-hmm.

[Eric]:

if we divide it up into the kind of modern applications and then all of the data

[Eric]:

before it, you look at it and you say, well, the vast majority of what we can learn

[Eric]:

from this is all from the past. It's kind of making sense of the present by looking

[Eric]:

through the prism of the past. So I must admit as a clear blind spot, I don't spend

[Eric]:

a lot of time necessarily looking forward far enough to incorporate changes in evolutionary

[Eric]:

constraints. Because you're talking many, many

[Alex Andorra]:

Yeah.

[Eric]:

generations. And like you said, I think before we get there, we have some... very pressing

[Eric]:

applied questions to answer within the next two or three generations, before we start

[Eric]:

thinking about that stuff. So

[Alex Andorra]:

Yeah.

[Eric]:

it is fascinating though, on times when you're not quite as busy getting projects over

[Eric]:

deadlines to maybe ponder that and take some time to think through it.

[Alex Andorra]:

Yeah, I mean, that would definitely make for a science fiction novel. I would read,

[Alex Andorra]:

you know, like a world where

[Eric]:

Yeah.

[Alex Andorra]:

these kinds of constraints have shifted. I don't know. I imagine me being a

[Alex Andorra]:

scientist at that time and, you know, having the constraint model in mind

[Alex Andorra]:

and I like, basically we have figured out more or less how to do those things

[Alex Andorra]:

and then you find some specimen from Homo sapiens, which who do not have those

[Alex Andorra]:

constraints and then they can just... build some so much muscle because they

[Alex Andorra]:

have adapted. That would be a fantastic side fiction novel. If

[Eric]:

Yeah.

[Alex Andorra]:

anybody wants to write it, please contact me. We'll get you on the show right

[Alex Andorra]:

now.

[Eric]:

Yeah, but it even is like, it's really fascinating. We don't have to go that far to

[Eric]:

entertain some of these really exciting and thought-provoking questions pertaining

[Eric]:

to evolution and the challenges we face as humans, because you think about something

[Eric]:

like space travel, which

[Alex Andorra]:

Mm-hmm.

[Eric]:

theoretically could become much more relevant in the next several generations.

[Alex Andorra]:

Mm-hmm.

[Eric]:

Maybe, I don't know. I'm not an expert

[Alex Andorra]:

Yeah.

[Eric]:

on that, but looking at physiological responses to uh, to microgravity, uh, it becomes

[Eric]:

so abundantly clear that this human machine really assumes that you're going to

[Eric]:

have a particular amount of gravity and it affects a lot of different systems in

[Eric]:

the body. And once you remove gravity, I mean, when people come back from space, their

[Eric]:

bodies are tremendously different and there is a significant recovery period. And

[Eric]:

some things I've seen some recent research indicating that some changes in the brain,

[Eric]:

uh, take a very, very long time to restore back to kind of baseline characteristics. So

[Eric]:

very, very fascinating stuff that, yeah, we can only really answer those questions by

[Eric]:

looking back and saying, well, how did we get here in the first place? Why do our

[Eric]:

systems function the way that they do?

[Alex Andorra]:

Mm-hmm.

[Eric]:

Which is, I think that's my favorite thing about transitioning from being in exercise

[Eric]:

science departments to being in evolutionary anthropology now

[Alex Andorra]:

Mm-hmm.

[Eric]:

is that The questions are so much, they're the things that kind of inspire so much imagination

[Eric]:

and creativity. I mean, you still have to then dig in and do the less imaginative,

[Eric]:

more robust, you know, actual science. But just that kind of initial hypothesis generating

[Eric]:

conversation, the questions are so big. And

[Alex Andorra]:

Yeah.

[Eric]:

so, yeah, they just kind of make you smile when you think about the possibility

[Eric]:

and and the overall scope of some of the questions that we have to answer.

[Alex Andorra]:

Yeah, yeah, no, for sure. I mean, I really love that field also for that,

[Alex Andorra]:

evolutionary anthropology. And I think only physics also bring those kind

[Alex Andorra]:

of questions to mind for me also, where it's like, some might read something

[Alex Andorra]:

about evolutionary anthropology or physics, and like at some point, I'm gonna

[Alex Andorra]:

end up asking myself some very existential philosophical questions, which

[Alex Andorra]:

is

[Eric]:

Yeah,

[Alex Andorra]:

super interesting.

[Eric]:

I don't know if you've been reading up on it, but physics is really heating up

[Eric]:

right now. There's some muon research that people are

[Alex Andorra]:

Mm-hmm.

[Eric]:

getting really, really excited about and they're thinking some chapters of textbooks

[Eric]:

might need to be rewritten relatively soon,

[Alex Andorra]:

Mm-hmm.

[Eric]:

which is not too often that you get to even entertain those kinds of ideas.

[Alex Andorra]:

Yeah, yeah, for sure. And so I think it's a perfect, thank you, Eric. And

[Alex Andorra]:

I swear people, we didn't prepare that, but that's a perfect plug because I told

[Alex Andorra]:

listeners that there was a very special episode coming in and I didn't say

[Alex Andorra]:

what it was about. But this summer I was lucky to be invited to CERN to

[Alex Andorra]:

the Collider and I filmed over there. It's gonna be the first video documentary

[Alex Andorra]:

episode we're gonna have. here, and we were actually lucky to see the control

[Alex Andorra]:

room of the Atlas experiment at CERN, which is one of the experiments which

[Alex Andorra]:

is looking to muons, as you were talking about, Eric. So yeah, it's definitely

[Alex Andorra]:

fascinating. And I'm working on editing that episode, folks. It's going

[Alex Andorra]:

to take a lot of time because I'm not a video editor. So it takes me a lot

[Alex Andorra]:

of time to do it, but it's really fun. And I hope you'll enjoy it. It's going

[Alex Andorra]:

to be a very long episode. I think the longest of the whole podcast, but

[Alex Andorra]:

super fascinating.

[Eric]:

I just want

[Alex Andorra]:

Thanks

[Eric]:

to say,

[Alex Andorra]:

a lot for. Yeah.

[Eric]:

getting back, that's awesome, but getting back to the randomness of careers, this,

[Alex Andorra]:

Yeah.

[Eric]:

for years I would go on podcasts and I'd be one person in this kind of rotating

[Eric]:

cycle of like fitness professionals. This year, you know, I've been on two podcasts

[Eric]:

where one person says, hey, by the way, next week we've got Noam Chomsky coming on.

[Eric]:

And I was like, what,

[Alex Andorra]:

Nice.

[Eric]:

what do you mean? How did this happen? Why am I on the same podcast as, you know,

[Eric]:

like, how is, how is there any overlap whatsoever? And now, you know, hey, by the

[Eric]:

way, we're going to, you know, show you Inside CERN in a few weeks, like, or a

[Eric]:

few months. I don't want to rush your video editing, but

[Alex Andorra]:

Yeah, thank you.

[Eric]:

yeah, just weird. Just weird. Exciting, though.

[Alex Andorra]:

Yeah, I mean, common denominator here, Bayesian stats. Everybody needs them

[Alex Andorra]:

and use them. But yeah, no, thanks for this amazing plug, Eric. It was

[Alex Andorra]:

perfect. And let's go back to you now and talk about metabolic adaptation.

[Alex Andorra]:

So we've talked a bit about it now. You've written a very extensive guide

[Alex Andorra]:

that I'll put in the show notes. So maybe can you tell us a bit about what metabolic

[Alex Andorra]:

adaptation is and why that's important?

[Eric]:

Absolutely. Yeah. So dieting is hard. If you ask someone who's trying to lose weight

[Eric]:

and lose body fat, it is really difficult and there are many, many reasons for that.

[Eric]:

But one area of research is very interested in kind of unraveling what those specific challenges

[Eric]:

are and why they arise. So kind of uncovering some of these things that make dieting a little

[Eric]:

bit more challenging than we think it ought to be. Because on paper, it's very simple,

[Eric]:

right? You know, when there's too much energy, when there's a surplus of energy, you

[Eric]:

produce the intake or you increase the expenditure and there you go. Now you're back

[Eric]:

in, you've got energy balance where you want it to be. So it should be conceptually

[Eric]:

quite simple, but in application, it's tremendously challenging. One of the many challenges

[Eric]:

relates to metabolic adaptation, which is that when people start to... lose weight

[Eric]:

via caloric restriction, we tend to see that basically their energy expenditure

[Eric]:

goes down more than we would predict. So what I mean by that is if a person, let's

[Eric]:

say a person is reducing their energy intake so that they can lose 30 pounds, we

[Eric]:

would expect that a person who weighs 30 fewer pounds would burn fewer calories throughout

[Eric]:

the day. broadly speaking, everything else staying equal, smaller bodies ought to

[Eric]:

burn fewer calories on a daily basis, but we should be able to generally predict

[Eric]:

what the magnitude of that change should be.

[Alex Andorra]:

Yeah.

[Eric]:

What we see in practice is that the reduction in energy expenditure during dieting

[Eric]:

is considerably larger than we would mathematically predict based on changes in

[Eric]:

body mass alone. And what it essentially identifies is an adaptive mechanism. where

[Eric]:

the body reduces to some extent, you know, resting or basal energy expenditure,

[Eric]:

but to a larger extent, non-exercise activity energy expenditure. We're seeing that

[Eric]:

these are being reduced disproportionately in a way that basically applies a little bit

[Eric]:

of a break to

[Alex Andorra]:

Hm.

[Eric]:

the weight loss process. It just adds

[Alex Andorra]:

No.

[Eric]:

some friction that makes it more challenging. And so of course, this is important to understand.

[Eric]:

I don't want to frame it as the most important constraint on weight loss because

[Eric]:

I don't believe that to be true, but it is an important element of understanding

[Eric]:

why weight loss is so challenging, which is of critical public health importance at

[Eric]:

a time where rates of overweight and obesity are higher than they've ever been in

[Eric]:

a historical perspective. As we see that, they are quite high in contributing to...

[Eric]:

health challenges and even population level burdens with regards to keeping sustainable

[Eric]:

healthcare systems working effectively. It's very important to understand these challenges

[Eric]:

that are associated with weight loss so that we can become more effective in managing

[Eric]:

obesity and the health-related implications of obesity.

[Alex Andorra]:

Yeah, exactly. And to make that even more concrete, so that means that basically

[Alex Andorra]:

as you lose weight, you're going to decrease your energy expenditure. I mean,

[Alex Andorra]:

your body is going to decrease its energy expenditure, as you were saying,

[Alex Andorra]:

this could be simple physics, lower volume, so lower energy expenditure.

[Alex Andorra]:

But you're noticing with that model that basically people lose the people's

[Alex Andorra]:

energy expenditure decreases more than what's predicted. And so concretely,

[Alex Andorra]:

that means if you still want to lose weight after that inflection point,

[Alex Andorra]:

you have to reduce even more the caloric intake because otherwise you're

[Alex Andorra]:

not going to lose weight anymore. Is that what that means concretely for people

[Alex Andorra]:

and what makes it even more challenging to lose weight?

[Eric]:

Yes, it means that the dieting process will become more restrictive than it otherwise

[Eric]:

would be. And what's really to make matters worse, so we lose weight by creating

[Eric]:

an energy deficit, right? So we're consuming fewer calories than we're burning on a daily

[Eric]:

basis. So we introduce this deficit and being in a deficit alone causes a reduction

[Eric]:

in energy expenditure. Our body can kind of tell with that short term shortfall

[Eric]:

of energy intake, oh, let's kind of slow down some expenditure, power down some

[Eric]:

processes that aren't totally essential. So being in a deficit causes a reduction in

[Eric]:

energy expenditure. And let's say that works and now you're losing weight. Now you

[Eric]:

are a smaller person, which reduces energy expenditure. And then you add on top

[Eric]:

of those, this adaptive reduction in response to decreases in fat mass, and now

[Eric]:

you have three separate factors that are contributing to this reduction in energy

[Eric]:

expenditure, which means instead of dieting on, you know, perhaps what might feel

[Eric]:

like a comfortable diet of 1900 calories per day, you're pushing considerably lower

[Eric]:

than that into caloric ranges that are much lower than you're comfortable with. And

[Eric]:

now you're, you know, ability to get through the day with a suitable energy level

[Eric]:

is threatened. Your hunger is considerably increased. It creates a lot of challenges in

[Eric]:

that regard.

[Alex Andorra]:

Yeah, yeah, yeah. And this is really fascinating to read about. Also to live

[Alex Andorra]:

is quite interesting. I've been myself on a cut lately, and that has been definitely

[Alex Andorra]:

at some point at the end of the cut was very challenging, these kinds of

[Alex Andorra]:

things where you're like, you have days where you like literally think about

[Alex Andorra]:

food all the time

[Eric]:

Yeah.

[Alex Andorra]:

and you're like, you're like trying to. You know, optimize the macros and

[Alex Andorra]:

so on and like trying to find, I was literally food hunting in some of the

[Alex Andorra]:

shops here. I was like trying to find the best foods, like the most protein,

[Alex Andorra]:

the less fat or the less carbs. Which is kind of fun, but yeah. If you do it

[Alex Andorra]:

in a controlled way, that's interesting. But otherwise that definitely

[Alex Andorra]:

puts a challenge on, on top of already a challenging situation. And what

[Alex Andorra]:

I found also really interesting is that. metabolic adaptation. I don't know

[Alex Andorra]:

if you still collect metabolic adaptation in that case, but that also kicks

[Alex Andorra]:

in these mechanisms that make sure your energy expenditure basically doesn't

[Alex Andorra]:

go too low and doesn't go too high. These they kick in also if you're in

[Alex Andorra]:

a caloric surplus. So if you want to gain weight because you want to put

[Alex Andorra]:

on some muscles, for instance, so that would be the case for athletes, or

[Alex Andorra]:

for a lot of people in the general population, These mechanisms also kick in,

[Alex Andorra]:

right?

[Eric]:

Yeah, yeah. And so when it comes to metabolic adaptation, I'm glad you frame the

[Eric]:

question that way because there is considerable debate or heterogeneity, whichever way you

[Eric]:

view it, in terms of the terminology.

[Alex Andorra]:

Mm-hmm.

[Eric]:

Some people talk about adaptive thermogenesis, which is

[Alex Andorra]:

Meh, yeah.

[Eric]:

specifically the reduction in energy expenditure that we've talked about up to this

[Eric]:

point. But when I talk about metabolic adaptation, some people use that synonymously

[Eric]:

with adaptive thermogenesis. It's a very narrow scope of focus that looks just

[Eric]:

at energy expenditure fluctuations in response to weight loss, or conversely, perhaps

[Eric]:

weight gain. When I write about metabolic adaptation, I like to take a more holistic

[Eric]:

approach, and I talk

[Alex Andorra]:

Mm-hmm.

[Eric]:

about not just energy expenditure, but the entire milieu of endocrine and even neuroendocrine

[Eric]:

changes. that

[Alex Andorra]:

Mm-hmm.

[Eric]:

affect many body systems. So of course, energy expenditure goes down. That alone, honestly,

[Eric]:

is not that big of a deal.

[Alex Andorra]:

Mm-hmm.

[Eric]:

It's not helpful, but it's not catastrophic by any means. The larger changes that we see

[Eric]:

typically are just being in a deficit reduces expenditure and being smaller. So

[Alex Andorra]:

Mm-hmm. Yeah.

[Eric]:

if it were only an energy expenditure problem, I don't think it would be so important.

[Eric]:

It matter, but to a lesser degree. But with metabolic adaptation, the way I like to

[Eric]:

talk about it holistically, we see reductions in sex hormones

[Alex Andorra]:

Mm-hmm.

[Eric]:

as a response of this. I mean, the hypothalamus is coordinating this widespread set of consequences

[Eric]:

across many different body systems. So reductions in sex hormones that can impact

[Eric]:

potentially body composition, potentially the reproductive system. These are things that

[Eric]:

impact quality of life. And then when we look at the neurophysiological changes related

[Eric]:

to hunger and appetite regulation, I think those are the most important adaptations

[Eric]:

that we see during weight loss

[Alex Andorra]:

Mm-hmm.

[Eric]:

in terms of just recalibrating our hunger and desire to eat and the types of food choices

[Eric]:

that we're inclined to make. So you could set, you know... cut those up into individual

[Eric]:

components and study them all separately, but I don't think it makes sense to do so,

[Eric]:

which is why

[Alex Andorra]:

Mm-hmm.

[Eric]:

when I write about metabolic adaptation, I think a very fair criticism is some people

[Eric]:

might say, you've gone beyond the scope of metabolic adaptation. And my response would

[Eric]:

be, you have too narrow a scope for metabolic adaptation

[Alex Andorra]:

Mm-hmm.

[Eric]:

because you really cannot uncouple these things from one another. So yeah, I definitely

[Eric]:

want to acknowledge that, metabolic adaptation the way I view it, not only is it

[Eric]:

very wide ranging across body systems, but it also does apply, like you were saying,

[Eric]:

in two directions. So we see adaptations to underfeeding and weight loss,

[Alex Andorra]:

Mm-hmm.

[Eric]:

but we also tend to see adaptations to overfeeding and weight gain. So there's

[Eric]:

fascinating experiments where we bring people in, not I didn't do it, but when scientists

[Eric]:

bring people in. overfeed them intentionally to a considerable degree.

[Alex Andorra]:

Mm-hmm.

[Eric]:

And there are tremendous adaptation, adaptive mechanisms that lead to dramatic increases

[Eric]:

in energy expenditure to maintain a relatively stable body weight. And what we

[Eric]:

see is that appetite goes through, I mean, just to the floor, just no appetite whatsoever

[Eric]:

when people are dramatically overfed intentionally. But

[Alex Andorra]:

Hmm.

[Eric]:

The really fascinating thing, the unfortunate thing, because I'm sure a lot of people are

[Eric]:

listening saying, no, your science is wrong.

[Alex Andorra]:

Mm-hmm.

[Eric]:

The variation between individuals is immense. And so they're even in these studies

[Eric]:

that are tightly controlled, we'll see some people defend a body weight quite effectively.

[Eric]:

Other

[Alex Andorra]:

Mm-hmm.

[Eric]:

folks, you know, their body weight just changes quite readily, right? So there are

[Eric]:

a lot of folks who say, When I overfeed, I don't increase energy expenditure. My appetite

[Eric]:

doesn't drop. I just gain weight. And so

[Alex Andorra]:

Mm-hmm.

[Eric]:

that observation is not at odds with the science. It's very much compatible with

[Eric]:

it. But what we do find is, you know, there is a lot of variation in people's adaptive

[Eric]:

mechanisms in both directions. So there are some folks who, when they do a weight loss

[Eric]:

diet, they just lose the weight and it goes fine. And

[Alex Andorra]:

Thanks for watching!

[Eric]:

other people will look at them and say, how is this possible? Like, you feel like you're

[Eric]:

from a different planet. when you look at the

[Alex Andorra]:

Yeah.

[Eric]:

difference in responses. And that I think is another reason that it's so important

[Eric]:

to understand these, um, you know, metabolic adaptation in general is. I think first of

[Eric]:

all, there's the practical benefit of understanding what it is and what to do about

[Eric]:

it to facilitate, uh, folks who are trying to gain or lose weight, uh, to, to find

[Eric]:

a healthier body weight range for them. But

[Alex Andorra]:

Mm-hmm.

[Eric]:

also I think it, I think if you. interact and engage with this literature seriously and

[Eric]:

you do so with a very critical eye You're almost forced to kind of decouple obesity and

[Eric]:

weight gain from Some of these inaccurate and counterproductive assumptions that are

[Eric]:

really common in health care and really common in society you know a lot of people

[Eric]:

will look at obesity or weight gain and inherently mentally connect them to essentially

[Eric]:

character flaws like gluttony or laziness. And I think if you look at this literature

[Eric]:

and you do so critically with an open mind, what you tend to see is there are so

[Eric]:

many factors impacting body weight regulation that appear to be innate. These inter-individual

[Eric]:

differences are immense. And

[Alex Andorra]:

Mm-hmm.

[Eric]:

what you start to see is as someone who has... generally in my life had success

[Eric]:

gaining and losing body weight very readily. When I was younger, I used to assume

[Eric]:

that there was, you know, oh, I'm so much tougher. I can push through these

[Alex Andorra]:

Thanks for watching!

[Eric]:

things that other people can't push you. That's not the case. As I've looked at

[Eric]:

the literature more, I find that I am just a better responder to some of these weight

[Eric]:

regulation interventions. You know, I

[Alex Andorra]:

Mm-hmm.

[Eric]:

lose and gain weight intentionally. while encountering far less friction than other

[Eric]:

folks do. And so that was unfortunate. At first I thought I was really special and

[Eric]:

just had this ability to push through things. But I think metabolic adaptation, as

[Eric]:

we understand these barriers to weight loss that are very

[Eric]:

inconsistent from one person to another, it helps us look at things like obesity and

[Eric]:

weight gain and weight management. in a much more empathetic way, in a much more

[Alex Andorra]:

Mm-hmm.

[Eric]:

accurate way, you know, so I think that's really important.

[Alex Andorra]:

Yeah, yeah, for sure. And you can still be special in the sense that you

[Alex Andorra]:

have a special genetic component.

[Eric]:

Yeah.

[Alex Andorra]:

You chose your parents, right? Well done, Eric. So many questions.

[Alex Andorra]:

So what you were talking about, basically, that there is a huge inter-subject

[Alex Andorra]:

viability. Yeah, I'm not. surprised about that. It's something I've noticed also

[Alex Andorra]:

in that literature. Hopefully, we'll have time to talk a bit more about that

[Alex Andorra]:

later on in the show from a more statistical point of view. Face dance,

[Alex Andorra]:

whispering. Something I'm wondering is, do you notice a correlation between the

[Alex Andorra]:

people who can gain weight easily and then lose weight easily? And then you have

[Alex Andorra]:

basically you... that you would call responders in this case, and then people

[Alex Andorra]:

who respond way less. And so if you have trouble gaining weight, then also

[Alex Andorra]:

probably you will have trouble losing weight. That would make sense to me,

[Alex Andorra]:

but is that something that you also see in the data?

[Eric]:

Yeah, so what we tend to see if we're looking specifically at physiological responses,

[Eric]:

so like changes in energy expenditure that we can kind of measure with physiological

[Eric]:

tools,

[Alex Andorra]:

Mm-hmm.

[Eric]:

if we look at that, then we can broadly define people or kind of categorize them into

[Eric]:

two major phenotypes. You know, thrifty versus spendthrift are the

[Alex Andorra]:

Hehe.

[Eric]:

terms that are used. So there are some folks who if they're overfed. You know, they,

[Eric]:

they gain weight really easily, but then when they try to lose weight, they run

[Eric]:

into a lot of friction, right?

[Alex Andorra]:

Mm-hmm.

[Eric]:

So they're kind of nudged toward these, um, you know, if overeating and then trying

[Eric]:

to diet, you know, they would readily gain weight and then kind of struggle to lose

[Eric]:

it. There are other

[Alex Andorra]:

Hmph.

[Eric]:

folks who are, who are the inverse where, um, if they try to overfeed, it will be, uh,

[Eric]:

you know, we'll see a lot of those physiological. adaptive mechanisms that kind of keep them

[Eric]:

from or resist their ability to gain weight readily. But they don't seem to run

[Eric]:

into as much friction when dietary intake is reduced. And what's really fascinating is

[Eric]:

you can kind of look at these over very short time scales. You can just do in a crossover

[Eric]:

study, you can look at overfeeding and underfeeding or even fasting responses over

[Eric]:

the course of just 24 hours each. And you

[Alex Andorra]:

Mm-hmm.

[Eric]:

can kind of broadly categorize people and say, okay, if you, you know, had a huge

[Eric]:

increase in, um, energy expenditure when we did overfeeding, we can already start

[Eric]:

to make some inferences about, you know, the fact that, you know, a huge increase during

[Eric]:

overfeeding probably means that we're not going to see a lot of friction during underfeeding

[Eric]:

versus, you know, folks who, you know, when, when they overfeed, they just gain fat

[Eric]:

mass, you know, the, uh, energy expenditure doesn't really move much. Um, You know, when

[Eric]:

they go into a fasting or underfeeding stage, we expect a pretty considerable amount

[Eric]:

of friction in the sense that energy expenditure will drop. So there there's kind

[Eric]:

of. It only seems fair in the context of bodybuilding, you know?

[Alex Andorra]:

Mm-hmm.

[Eric]:

Um, so what

[Alex Andorra]:

Yeah.

[Eric]:

I mean by that is bodybuilders will go through phases where they really want to

[Eric]:

gain weight. And then when they really want to lose weight, you know, they want to

[Alex Andorra]:

Mm-hmm.

[Eric]:

build all their muscle, gain a bunch of weight, lose fat. And so bodybuilders usually,

[Eric]:

you can kind of count on having one or the other. You know, you can say, oh,

[Alex Andorra]:

Yeah

[Eric]:

I can bulk up really well, but I struggle when I'm cutting. Or

[Alex Andorra]:

Hmm.

[Eric]:

some people will say, you know, it's really challenging for me to gain weight and

[Eric]:

put on muscle, but when I want to lose fat, it usually goes pretty smoothly. So in

[Eric]:

bodybuilding, it seems fair. Outside of that world, I think most folks in the general

[Eric]:

population feel like it's very unfair and they want to be the person who can lose

[Eric]:

weight easily and struggle to gain weight when intentionally overfeeding. But I did mention

[Eric]:

the caveat that I was speaking really about physiological responses there, because

[Eric]:

I think one other important factor that I've not seen really studied all together comprehensively

[Eric]:

very frequently is we've got that kind of regulation system of these physiological

[Eric]:

parameters. But I also think that there is work to be done in the kind of neurophysiological

[Eric]:

regulation of appetite and desire to

[Alex Andorra]:

Mm-hmm.

[Eric]:

eat. And I think part of that is reward responses to feeding and those kind of hedonic

[Eric]:

responses to

[Alex Andorra]:

Yeah.

[Eric]:

feeding. And I think for me, one of the reasons that I'm able to kind of do weight

[Eric]:

gain and weight loss relatively easily is that, you know, I think I probably do experience,

[Eric]:

I'm more of the thrifty phenotype, meaning that I can gain weight intentionally quite

[Eric]:

easily. I do have reductions in energy expenditure, pretty considerable ones when

[Eric]:

I diet. But I

[Alex Andorra]:

Mm-hmm.

[Eric]:

think the way that I respond to food from a neurophysiological perspective, I'm

[Eric]:

just not as into it as most people.

[Alex Andorra]:

Mm.

[Eric]:

So I don't

[Alex Andorra]:

Mm-hmm.

[Eric]:

run into the really tremendously challenging appetite and desire to eat challenges when

[Eric]:

I'm dieting. So my energy expenditure goes down plenty. It's just not that big of

[Eric]:

a deal. Because if I need to cut calories more, that doesn't feel based on my neurotransmitters

[Eric]:

basically. like it's too great a sacrifice to make. So there are these competing systems

[Eric]:

going on that make things really quite fascinating.

[Alex Andorra]:

Yeah, yeah, for sure. And I really love also that you're talking about

[Alex Andorra]:

the neurological aspect because that's something I've seen also is, yeah, first,

[Alex Andorra]:

one of the things like when you go on a fat loss diet and then go on a

[Alex Andorra]:

caloric surplus, you kind of have to have to change your mental thinking

[Alex Andorra]:

about food. It's really weird. Whereas when you're losing fat, you have to

[Alex Andorra]:

be very... intuitive about the way you eat and being very aware of the society

[Alex Andorra]:

cues that you have and that actually often you can stop eating before you

[Alex Andorra]:

do. And being very aware of those stuff, eating very slowly and all those

[Alex Andorra]:

things like that where meditation helps and so on. And then when you want to

[Alex Andorra]:

gain weight, you have to kind of throw all that out the window. And basically

[Alex Andorra]:

eat even though you're not hungry. Continue eating even though you're not hungry.

[Alex Andorra]:

It's really a mental shift. That's really weird. And also you have to change

[Alex Andorra]:

your habits. And it's something I've really dove into a lot because basically

[Alex Andorra]:

how to build better habits and how to pair basically these incredible power

[Alex Andorra]:

that the brain has, which is creature of habits because these are shortcuts

[Alex Andorra]:

and it makes just like... life easier for the brain. Well, that can be a very

[Alex Andorra]:

bad thing if you have really bad habits, but then you can change those habits.

[Alex Andorra]:

How do you change them for the better? An extremely good book that I found

[Alex Andorra]:

about that, I've read a lot of things about that, but the main one I would

[Alex Andorra]:

recommend for someone who's digging into that would be the one from Kathy

[Alex Andorra]:

Milkman, How to Change the Science of Going from Where You Are to Where You Wanna

[Alex Andorra]:

Go. This is a really good one. really good breakdown of the current literature.

[Alex Andorra]:

And it helps you also pair, basically what we're talking about with, okay,

[Alex Andorra]:

how do I try to develop that into routines that help me? So developing cues,

[Alex Andorra]:

for instance, me, I'm really a coffee nerd and addict. So when I started

[Alex Andorra]:

going to the gym, well, trying to find a coffee shop that's on the way to

[Alex Andorra]:

the gym so that, and not having coffee at home, so that I have to get to the

[Alex Andorra]:

coffee shop to get the coffee. And while the gym is just there, well, might

[Alex Andorra]:

as well get some training. And then after the gym, well, you get another coffee

[Alex Andorra]:

because it's a reward. And

[Eric]:

Yeah.

[Alex Andorra]:

then at some point, the brain does the stuff automatically. This is really

[Alex Andorra]:

a fascinating part also of that research. But I think that I think also we're

[Alex Andorra]:

just starting to explore.

[Eric]:

Yeah, yeah. And I love the behavioral components because having worked with a lot

[Eric]:

of clients who have weight loss goals, it's so fascinating to see this fine line where

[Eric]:

an intuitive assumption is that you should make the most minor, tiniest, most feasible

[Eric]:

change as possible if you want to start reducing energy intake and losing weight. And

[Eric]:

in many cases, that is true. But in some cases, individuals are so locked into

[Eric]:

habits and routines that it's almost harder to do the same routines and same kind

[Eric]:

of things and just make these little changes within that. Sometimes it is a lot

[Eric]:

easier to just completely restructure a day and just to say, let's create a completely

[Eric]:

different series of habits, a different schedule, a different routine. Let's start

[Eric]:

from scratch and very intentionally bundle some of those things like you mentioned,

[Eric]:

where it's like, okay, yeah, we're going to... create this association, this coupling

[Eric]:

between gym time and coffee. And I know you want

[Alex Andorra]:

Mm-hmm.

[Eric]:

your coffee,

[Alex Andorra]:

Yeah.

[Eric]:

so you will get to the gym. Um, and I do those same kinds of things right now.

[Eric]:

Like I, my favorite thing to kind of just, um, it's the least productive thing I

[Eric]:

do. It's anti-productive, but, uh, when I really just want to turn my brain off and

[Eric]:

hang out. I love football. I'll play like

[Alex Andorra]:

Mm-hmm.

[Eric]:

a football video game. And my. Video game system where I play my football game is

[Eric]:

right in front of my treadmill.

[Alex Andorra]:

Mm-hmm.

[Eric]:

If I'm playing it, I'm walking. If I'm walking,

[Alex Andorra]:

Yeah.

[Eric]:

I'm doing

[Alex Andorra]:

Mm-hmm.

[Eric]:

something positive for my health. Just finding those ways to couple those things because

[Eric]:

I noticed my step count was too low. It's like, well, how do we make that work in

[Eric]:

a way that doesn't feel like a chore? We couple

[Alex Andorra]:

Mm-hmm.

[Eric]:

walking with one of our favorite things to do that when we get a chance, we're going

[Eric]:

to do it.

[Alex Andorra]:

Yeah. And also that I find that helpful in the way that it also gets us out

[Alex Andorra]:

of the, most of the time, unhelpful mindset of, you know, no pain, no gain, that

[Alex Andorra]:

you have to just grind through. And if you're not, then that means you're weak,

[Alex Andorra]:

you have weak character in all those things we were talking about, you were

[Alex Andorra]:

talking about, before,

[Eric]:

Yeah.

[Alex Andorra]:

about weak gain and obesity.

[Eric]:

And the weirdest thing though, like one of the, I almost, if I wasn't going to

[Eric]:

join, uh, Dr. Ponser's lab, I gave serious consideration to doing another PhD in the social

[Eric]:

sciences and, uh, you know, health psychology, because one of the weirdest things I find working

[Eric]:

with clients, you know, cause all the theory goes out the window when you're actually

[Eric]:

out in the field working with people.

[Alex Andorra]:

Mm-hmm.

[Eric]:

For most people, I fully agree, and based on the textbooks, I fully agree, you

[Eric]:

know, the no pain, no gain thing, forget about that, let's make things approachable,

[Eric]:

let's make them feasible. There is a certain percentage of the population where

[Eric]:

if they cannot link what they're doing to an internal narrative, that they are grinding,

[Eric]:

and they are doing

[Alex Andorra]:

Mm-hmm.

[Eric]:

the hard stuff. Like, there's this entire narrative that... makes them excited to do

[Eric]:

it because it feels like it sucks. And

[Alex Andorra]:

Yeah.

[Eric]:

I want to understand better what that is and how we can sort the people with what

[Eric]:

I would consider a more typical average response, which is let's make it not suck.

[Alex Andorra]:

Yeah, yeah.

[Eric]:

I think most people like that. But I'm very intrigued by, you know, early in my coaching

[Eric]:

career, I would try to fit people into that mold. And I found enough of these people

[Eric]:

that I said, we have to have at least two molds, where some

[Alex Andorra]:

Mm-hmm.

[Eric]:

of these people do want to be grinding and they like the fact that it is hard. That's

[Eric]:

what excites them about it. And sometimes they wanna make it seem, to be totally honest,

[Eric]:

even harder than it is,

[Alex Andorra]:

Yeah,

[Eric]:

which is

[Alex Andorra]:

yeah.

[Eric]:

very fascinating to me.

[Alex Andorra]:

Yeah, this is super interesting. I mean, like, and in a way, also, you could,

[Alex Andorra]:

like, I'm sure there are some tactics to make them think they are grinding,

[Alex Andorra]:

even though it's just a bit more friction, but it's actually no harm. Like,

[Alex Andorra]:

it makes me think about, do you know about the IKEA effect in this literature,

[Alex Andorra]:

which is where basically the idea is For instance, in France, you have these

[Alex Andorra]:

all-made, pre-made crepes that you can buy in the supermarket. And when they

[Alex Andorra]:

started selling those, it didn't sell as well as they thought. And then they

[Alex Andorra]:

did all their studies and so on. And they understood that it was because

[Alex Andorra]:

everything was made and then people couldn't basically claim that it was

[Alex Andorra]:

their own crepes that they were doing. And so they just removed the eggs. And

[Alex Andorra]:

now when you buy that, you have to put the flour on

[Eric]:

Yeah.

[Alex Andorra]:

all made and so on. And yet you just put the eggs and you bake it like

[Alex Andorra]:

you whisk them. And then cells went through the roof because basically like

[Alex Andorra]:

people feel that they are part of the process and that, you know, they, they

[Alex Andorra]:

belong in the process. And so that's called the IKEA effect because like

[Alex Andorra]:

you go to IKEA, it's not done. You have to put your own furniture together.

[Alex Andorra]:

And so

[Eric]:

Yeah.

[Alex Andorra]:

basically, even though it's a really small thing, then that makes a derance

[Alex Andorra]:

to the program, which is of tremendous importance in sports science, much

[Alex Andorra]:

higher and in the end that makes the program more effective.

[Eric]:

Yeah, I never heard it framed as the Ikea effect, but I heard that same kind of

[Eric]:

story about cake mixes in the United States where they

[Alex Andorra]:

Exactly.

[Eric]:

said, okay,

[Alex Andorra]:

Yeah.

[Eric]:

you got to put the egg in. And that does make sense. And sometimes, you know, I'll

[Eric]:

even take it a step further and have clients, you know, design a little part of

[Eric]:

their program themselves that I set enough constraints that whether they pick,

[Eric]:

you know, red or blue.

[Alex Andorra]:

Yeah.

[Eric]:

it's going to be equally efficacious, right? So there's

[Alex Andorra]:

Yeah.

[Eric]:

nothing at stake here, but it does increase that, um, that feeling of ownership and kind

[Eric]:

of having that autonomy and self-efficacy to really make an imprint on what we're doing.

[Eric]:

Yeah.

[Alex Andorra]:

Yeah, yeah, yeah. And yeah, I'm loving all that discussion and like I want

[Alex Andorra]:

to dive into more stats, but I really love it. So just to continue a bit

[Alex Andorra]:

on that and on the grinding part that you talked about, also to me that

[Alex Andorra]:

resonates with a lot of stoicism. I'm really interested in stoic philosophy.

[Alex Andorra]:

And so like you see a lot of that where basically the idea One of the ideas

[Alex Andorra]:

and principles of stoic philosophy is sometimes make you a bit more uncomfortable

[Alex Andorra]:

than you need to be, because that way it makes you more resilient in a way,

[Alex Andorra]:

and that shows you that you can do it basically if you have to. For instance,

[Alex Andorra]:

when it's chilly outside, well, get out with one layer less than you would

[Alex Andorra]:

be comfortable. And actually, that makes you a more stronger and resilient

[Alex Andorra]:

person. And I really love that. that part of the stoic philosophy. I put a

[Alex Andorra]:

link to the one of the best books about that I've read, which is called

[Alex Andorra]:

the stoic challenge by William B Irvine, really, really good book. I'll put

[Alex Andorra]:

that in the show notes. And about the, like the pleasure that comes from

[Alex Andorra]:

pain makes me think about another book I read recently, which is called the sweet

[Alex Andorra]:

spot, the pleasures of suffering and the search for meaning by Paul Bloom. And

[Alex Andorra]:

yeah, it's a bit about what you talked about where basically for some people

[Alex Andorra]:

and for some endeavors, the suffering is part of the experience. And if

[Alex Andorra]:

you're not suffering at least a bit, then for some people that is not worth

[Alex Andorra]:

it.

[Eric]:

Yeah.

[Alex Andorra]:

Yeah, really, really fascinating. So before we dive a bit more into the statistics

[Alex Andorra]:

side of things, I'm wondering about, to close up on metabolic adaptation,

[Alex Andorra]:

what are the current frontier regarding that field? Basically, what are the

[Alex Andorra]:

questions that you and the people who are studying that, what are the questions

[Alex Andorra]:

you really want to know the answer to these days?

[Eric]:

I mean, there are a few, some of them are boring. They're about methods. So, unless

[Eric]:

you're researching in the area, you don't care. But one of the things that's really

[Eric]:

challenging with this area is that

[Eric]:

when we predict changes in energy expenditure,

[Alex Andorra]:

Mm-hmm.

[Eric]:

we typically have to use fat-free mass as one of the main predictors. But

[Alex Andorra]:

Mm-hmm.

[Eric]:

when you look at fat-free mass, you have tissues with very different energy expenditure.

[Eric]:

amounts, you know, if you look at the rate of energy expenditure in the kidney versus

[Eric]:

the liver versus the heart versus muscle tissue,

[Alex Andorra]:

Mm-hmm.

[Eric]:

you can't just say it's all the same per kilogram. And so that one area of research

[Eric]:

is how much organ mass is lost during dieting and is it possible that is explaining

[Eric]:

at least some of this reduction in energy expenditure that seems disproportionate. So

[Eric]:

that's an

[Alex Andorra]:

Mm-hmm.

[Eric]:

active area of discussion. Some of the more practical questions, you know. Is there

[Eric]:

anything that we can do feasibly

[Alex Andorra]:

Mm-hmm.

[Eric]:

to attenuate or mitigate these changes in terms of metabolic adaptation? Do we essentially

[Eric]:

reach an equilibrium after we've maintained our weight loss for some amount of time? And

[Eric]:

if so, how much? So

[Alex Andorra]:

Mm-hmm.

[Eric]:

far we've got longitudinal studies up to six years, I think, of follow-up where we

[Eric]:

say, yeah, it doesn't really look like there's much changing here. It looks like it's

[Eric]:

a fairly persistent thing. So that's another open question that is always top of

[Eric]:

mind. And then the one that interests me the most is how do we...

[Eric]:

How do we put together a unified model that includes the constrained energy expenditure

[Eric]:

model and like exercise energy compensation

[Alex Andorra]:

Mm-hmm.

[Eric]:

and metabolic adaptation at the same time? What

[Alex Andorra]:

Mm-hmm.

[Eric]:

I mean by that is we know that as people are dieting, restricting energy intake to lose

[Eric]:

weight, metabolic adaptation will reduce their energy expenditure. But we also know

[Eric]:

that if people do extremely large amounts of exercise... we often see an attenuation

[Eric]:

of resting metabolic rate. And so the question is, most interventions will include

[Eric]:

energy restriction and extra exercise. So how do we kind of parse those two things

[Eric]:

that are almost certainly happening simultaneously? And one hunch that I have that

[Eric]:

I'd like to explore in upcoming years is, I personally think that Exercise energy

[Eric]:

compensation is greatest when we're in a caloric deficit. So when we are under

[Eric]:

eating relative to

[Alex Andorra]:

Mm-hmm.

[Eric]:

our energy expenditure.

[Alex Andorra]:

Yeah.

[Eric]:

So I expect that in programs that involve weight loss and dietary restriction, or I mean

[Eric]:

exercise and dietary restriction for weight loss, we are seeing not just an additive

[Eric]:

effect of the two things, but perhaps even kind of an amplification of that effect

[Alex Andorra]:

Yeah.

[Eric]:

because

[Eric]:

exercise energy compensation in line with the constrained expenditure model, it

[Eric]:

does seem to vary based on the energy status of the individual, whether they're in

[Eric]:

neutral, positive, or negative energy balance. So that's a frontier that I think

[Eric]:

is really important to explore.

[Alex Andorra]:

Yeah. And that, that's a really fascinating one. I found, um, like from a statistician's

[Alex Andorra]:

point of view, basically, like, like everything we're talking about since the

[Alex Andorra]:

beginning makes me think like I have stuff in my head, like interaction effects

[Alex Andorra]:

all over the place, basically. That's what you just talked about, like interaction

[Alex Andorra]:

between dietary restriction and, um, and then, um, the exercise compensation,

[Alex Andorra]:

um, and, and also like, I just have you know, logistic and logit curves in

[Alex Andorra]:

my head and logarithmic curves, basically where it's a lot of nonlinear effects

[Alex Andorra]:

combined to interactions, which make everything much more complicated, at least

[Alex Andorra]:

for a homo sapiens, normal homo sapiens brain. I'm guessing if you put that

[Alex Andorra]:

in a model in the computer, that will make much more sense, of course,

[Alex Andorra]:

but that's why we're doing that, right? But... Yeah, and actually, energy compensation

[Alex Andorra]:

is something you also worked on. And I really find that super interesting.

[Alex Andorra]:

So to try and make that more concrete for people, that would mean that,

[Alex Andorra]:

and that makes weight loss even more complicated if I understand correctly.

[Alex Andorra]:

Because that means that basically you're trying to lose weight and mainly lose

[Alex Andorra]:

fat. So you're going to have a deficit, calorie deficit. And on top of that,

[Alex Andorra]:

you're going to add exercise, most of the time cardio. And let's say you

[Alex Andorra]:

go for a run and you expect to lose 100 calories from that run. Basically

[Alex Andorra]:

what energy compensation coupled to calorie deficit means is that, well, at

[Alex Andorra]:

the beginning of the weight loss, maybe you're going to lose 100 calories,

[Alex Andorra]:

but then the bigger the deficit, the bigger the energy compensation. And so

[Alex Andorra]:

that means that let's say that your body compensates. So maybe I'm missing

[Alex Andorra]:

the sign here, but if the body compensates 80% of your exercise, that means

[Alex Andorra]:

you're only gonna lose 20 calories from that exercise bout instead of losing 100,

[Alex Andorra]:

which makes weight loss even more challenging. And in a way that makes sense,

[Alex Andorra]:

right? Because if your body thinks you're beginning to starve, well then

[Alex Andorra]:

it's starting to put all those barriers so that you don't die.

[Eric]:

Right.

[Alex Andorra]:

So yeah, had I summed up that thing well? And yeah, basically, can you talk

[Alex Andorra]:

a bit about that energy compensation and how that relates to what you're studying?

[Eric]:

Yeah, absolutely. So energy compensation really is the key factor underlying the constrained

[Eric]:

total energy expenditure hypothesis, meaning

[Alex Andorra]:

Mm-hmm.

[Eric]:

right now our best estimate is that if all we know about someone is just the bare,

[Eric]:

the most simplistic information, which is that I'm a person, I'm a human being, and

[Eric]:

I'm going to do an extra 100 calories worth of exercise per day.

[Alex Andorra]:

Mm-hmm.

[Eric]:

Our best estimate based on that minimal information would be that their total daily

[Eric]:

energy expenditure will only go up by about 70 calories

[Alex Andorra]:

Mm-hmm.

[Eric]:

per day instead of 100, because 30% of that will be compensated for by reducing

[Eric]:

resting factors of metabolism, trying to offset some of that energy cost. But we

[Eric]:

really need to do a lot more work to unravel. what makes a person compensate more

[Eric]:

or less.

[Alex Andorra]:

Mm-hmm.

[Eric]:

And so for example, if we look at the energy expenditure of competitive athletes

[Eric]:

who are intentionally eating a lot to try to replace their calories, we do see that

[Eric]:

their energy expenditure is considerably higher than a sedentary person who's weight

[Eric]:

stable. So it's not to say that we cannot change our total daily energy expenditure at

[Eric]:

all. But there is certainly some degree of compensation that occurs and my suspicion

[Eric]:

is that it is largely, the magnitude of compensation is largely dictated, not exclusively,

[Eric]:

but largely by energy intake. And I expect

[Alex Andorra]:

Mm-hmm.

[Eric]:

that, you know, when we're in a situation, I mean, we're seeing, you know, if we look

[Eric]:

in a vacuum, let's say you're not exercising, you're just reducing calories to lose weight.

[Eric]:

You're gonna get extra friction from metabolic adaptation, right?

[Alex Andorra]:

Mm-hmm.

[Eric]:

We know

[Alex Andorra]:

Yeah.

[Eric]:

that to be true. And let's say in a vacuum looking elsewhere, you're not doing

[Eric]:

any energy restriction necessarily, but you're exercising. Well,

[Alex Andorra]:

Mm-hmm.

[Eric]:

you know, there is gonna be probably some degree of compensation where you're, if

[Eric]:

the goal was to lose weight just by doing exercise, you're not gonna lose as much

[Eric]:

as you thought because some of that is gonna be compensated for. Now, when we put

[Eric]:

those two together, In light of observations that compensation seems to be greatest when

[Eric]:

energy intake is, you know, when there's a caloric deficit or negative energy balance,

[Eric]:

we don't just see, I would expect, I don't expect that we would see just an additive

[Eric]:

combined effect. I think we might see something that's more kind of synergistic in

[Eric]:

a way that the two kind of amplify each other in the context of a weight loss program

[Eric]:

involving diet and exercise. So all of that is to say, yeah, when you're doing

[Eric]:

a holistic weight loss program with diet and exercise, a lot of folks say, why

[Eric]:

does this feel so hard? And the answer is there's a lot of friction to be encountered

[Eric]:

along the way.

[Alex Andorra]:

Yeah. And also it makes more sense that these kicks in more in a deficit,

[Alex Andorra]:

a caloric deficit than a caloric surplus, right? Because then if you're in a

[Alex Andorra]:

caloric surplus, why would the body try to compensate for the extra, extra

[Alex Andorra]:

bout of exercise that you're enjoying?

[Eric]:

Yeah, yeah, the one exception though, the one exception that I would say is,

[Alex Andorra]:

Mm-hmm.

[Eric]:

I mean, of course, from an evolutionary perspective, when we're looking at starvation

[Eric]:

as the limiting factor, that all makes

[Alex Andorra]:

Mm-hmm.

[Eric]:

sense. And we'd say, yeah,

[Alex Andorra]:

Yeah.

[Eric]:

in a caloric deficit, you see a lot of compensation, otherwise maybe not so much,

[Eric]:

but they've done some really fascinating work in athletes who are just spending tremendous

[Eric]:

amounts of energy on exercise. And

[Alex Andorra]:

Mm-hmm.

[Eric]:

I think that over the long term, there are some upper boundary constraints that are

[Eric]:

limited just by the amount of energy that we can feasibly extract from our diet

[Eric]:

on a daily basis.

[Alex Andorra]:

Yeah, yeah, yeah.

[Eric]:

So I think they were working with like really competitive cyclists doing tremendously

[Alex Andorra]:

Mm-hmm.

[Eric]:

arduous races

[Alex Andorra]:

Mm-hmm.

[Eric]:

and finding that like, you know, there are some constraints on those absolute upper

[Eric]:

boundaries but those are constraints that most of us mortals are never gonna encounter,

[Eric]:

right?

[Alex Andorra]:

Yeah,

[Eric]:

Yeah.

[Alex Andorra]:

yeah, yeah. Yeah, it feels a bit like you only feel the effects of relativity

[Alex Andorra]:

when you go really fast. Well, it feels a bit like what you're talking about

[Alex Andorra]:

for these kind of like, yeah, really, really

[Eric]:

Yeah.

[Alex Andorra]:

hard endurance athletes. Yeah. I know we're running a bit long here. Are you

[Alex Andorra]:

okay to continue a bit more or do you have a

[Eric]:

Sure.

[Alex Andorra]:

hard stop?

[Eric]:

Yeah.

[Alex Andorra]:

Yeah.

[Eric]:

Yeah, I'm

[Alex Andorra]:

Okay.

[Eric]:

good.

[Alex Andorra]:

Awesome. Yeah. Thanks. Yeah, because I'm having too much fun. So I want

[Eric]:

Yeah,

[Alex Andorra]:

to continue.

[Eric]:

it's always good if it runs long and you're right now saving me from getting back

[Eric]:

into writing, so I'll talk forever.

[Alex Andorra]:

Well, I'm happy to do it. So yeah, let's turn a bit more to the statistical

[Alex Andorra]:

side of things here, because of course, you're using statistical models

[Alex Andorra]:

for all this work to make sense of it. So I'm wondering what are the main modeling

[Alex Andorra]:

challenges that your field is facing?

[Eric]:

Yeah. You know, when I first got into the field, I was

[Eric]:

coaching a special Olympics powerlifting team and the head coach was, he's a dear friend

[Eric]:

of mine and he had been doing research for decades before I was born. I mean, he was

[Eric]:

probably about 70 years old when we met and he was a statistician and so he would

[Eric]:

work with a lot of different fields and I remember expressing frustration to him

[Eric]:

about the way statistics were approached in my field, and he kind of calmed me down

[Eric]:

about it. He said, listen, different fields grow up at different rates, and the

[Eric]:

more mature a field gets, the more rigorous its science gets, the more it starts to embrace

[Eric]:

more nuanced statistical approaches, and people get better at it. It comes down,

[Eric]:

it starts with the demand for rigor in... know, the publication process, then it

[Eric]:

trickles down into the training that's received for folks that are coming up through

[Eric]:

the field. And so I think my field right now is at a really cool inflection point in

[Eric]:

its growth where there are a lot of people who are really lifting the tide for

[Eric]:

statistical analyses in exercise and sports science. So that's good. I'm happy to

[Eric]:

see that. And I don't want to be a hypocrite. It's not like I was, you know, a first year

[Eric]:

master's student and I had this like innate expertise in statistics and said, Oh,

[Eric]:

I'll do it all perfectly. And everyone else is dumb. I knew that it should be done

[Eric]:

better, but of course I wasn't capable of doing it. And part of my frustration was

[Eric]:

I want to get trained in the good stuff and no

[Alex Andorra]:

Mm-hmm.

[Eric]:

one seems to know the good stuff around here. You know what I mean? Um, and who knows

[Eric]:

if I would have even picked it up if I was exposed to that training, you know, I'm

[Eric]:

not, I'm not, uh, not claiming that expertise before developing it. So there are

[Eric]:

many challenges in our field and we're encountering them more as we kind of go through

[Eric]:

this growth process, to be honest. I think aside from the fact that our field has

[Eric]:

not prioritized statistic previously, so the training reflects that in a lot of programs,

[Eric]:

I think that's a big challenge. It's just that people are not being exposed to...

[Eric]:

really nuanced in-depth statistical training. And so a field, we got to start doing

[Eric]:

more of that training in the master's and PhD programs. But more to the point of

[Eric]:

probably what you were getting at, I think we have two main challenges in exercise

[Eric]:

and sports science. Number one, sample size.

[Alex Andorra]:

Mm-hmm.

[Eric]:

I think a lot of folks in other fields, they think we work with small samples because

[Eric]:

we're dumb. and we don't get it. It's like, why don't you do more? And it's like,

[Eric]:

well,

[Alex Andorra]:

Yeah.

[Eric]:

if you're doing these really, really resource intensive study protocols, you'll

[Eric]:

get it in both directions. If you do exercise protocols that can be feasibly scaled

[Eric]:

to large samples, people will say that your measurements are so imprecise as to be

[Eric]:

worthless. And they'll say, you can't even make the inferences you're trying to make

[Eric]:

because you use the cheap measurement. that you could actually use 400, 500 participants

[Eric]:

in the study. So you get a lot of pushback if you go the route of saying, well, let's

[Eric]:

do the less intensive measurement protocols that are more affordable and more feasible

[Eric]:

and get a bigger sample. On the other end, if you want to do the really nuanced measurements,

[Eric]:

the time cost, the labor cost, the financial cost, it starts to get so... remarkably large

[Eric]:

that the idea of bringing in more than about 22 people, it starts to become completely

[Eric]:

infeasible. And so of course, money would help. Money tends to help a lot of things

[Eric]:

in the research world. So if people wanted to dump all their money into these studies,

[Eric]:

then sure, we could take six years and run 300 people through the protocol. But right

[Eric]:

now, a big constraint on our statistical development and one that I think is fair, like...

[Eric]:

I could imagine the chair of a department who's been studying, doing research since I

[Eric]:

was not even born yet, 30 years before I was born, they could have been doing research.

[Eric]:

They would look at me and say, all right, hotshot, you think you know it all, but go

[Eric]:

learn all your stats. Why doesn't our department teach all this nuanced stuff? Because

[Eric]:

you can't even do it. Some of this, the really... nuanced statistical methodology,

[Eric]:

especially in the frequentist world, you need such large sample sizes to even really

[Eric]:

observe the benefit of doing a lot of those things. So sample size is a limiting

[Eric]:

factor that I think unfortunately is also holding us back from embracing some of

[Eric]:

these statistical approaches because people are saying, well, I could train you

[Eric]:

on that, but what are you going to do with it? Your

[Alex Andorra]:

Mm-hmm.

[Eric]:

biggest sample is 30 people.

[Alex Andorra]:

Yeah.

[Eric]:

So... Yeah, that's definitely, I would say, a big challenge. And then another challenge

[Eric]:

is a lot of the questions we explore have a lot of inter-individual variation or

[Eric]:

at least we expect them to based on biological and physiological theory. And it's

[Eric]:

really challenging for us to try to really parse out what is a genuine difference

[Eric]:

between individuals versus... measurement error and all the other sources of error and

[Eric]:

randomness that find their way into real world data, especially for metrics that

[Eric]:

change day to day. And I mean, if I measure some of these parameters, it's going

[Eric]:

to be different at 8 a.m. than it is at 11 a.m. for the same person on the same

[Eric]:

day. So there's

[Alex Andorra]:

Yeah,

[Eric]:

so much

[Alex Andorra]:

yeah.

[Eric]:

noise and trying to get through that and say, well, What is, how do we attribute

[Eric]:

this noise to all these various components that can create noisiness in this dataset?

[Eric]:

It can be really challenging.

[Alex Andorra]:

Yeah, I mean, this is very interesting because this is what I've also noticed reading

[Alex Andorra]:

some of the literature that we're talking about. And that's also why I

[Alex Andorra]:

thought it was super interesting to have you on the show. Because unfortunately

[Alex Andorra]:

for now, I cannot really help with the money,

[Eric]:

Hehehe

[Alex Andorra]:

but I can help with the statistics and I'm pretty sure what you... Just talked

[Alex Andorra]:

about a lot of listeners have started thinking, patient stats, dude, patient

[Alex Andorra]:

stats. Because it helps for low sample size, it's perfect for that. And

[Alex Andorra]:

also the inter-subject viability, and we're going to talk a bit about that. Teaser

[Alex Andorra]:

for listeners, there is a really cool paper we're going to talk about, I mean

[Alex Andorra]:

mention, from someone you know very well. Yeah, so basically that would be

[Alex Andorra]:

my question. So you told me you know a bit about Bayesian stats. I mean,

[Alex Andorra]:

you've heard of it, but that it's still not much used for now in your field,

[Alex Andorra]:

am I correct?

[Eric]:

It is starting to get used more. And I feel that it's been interesting because I

[Eric]:

did my graduate research between 2013 and 2018.

[Alex Andorra]:

Mm-hmm.

[Eric]:

And I actually expressed an interest in diving deep into Bayesian statistics. And

[Alex Andorra]:

Mm-hmm.

[Eric]:

due to various circumstances, just didn't really get the opportunity to sink my teeth

[Eric]:

into it. And one of the things that makes it challenging is As we know as people

[Eric]:

who's published science, you know, there's a great responsibility You you can't just willy-nilly

[Eric]:

say I'm gonna try this new thing and I don't really know how to check if I did it

[Eric]:

Right, but whatever I'll try it and I'll just publish it. It's you don't really

[Eric]:

want to do that, right? I mean, it's kind of a you want to make sure you're doing

[Eric]:

it, right? And you want to make sure that you are kind of learning with the right

[Eric]:

resources or under the right people to kind of uh, help you transition into that

[Eric]:

new skill set. And so I remember approaching my stats professor, uh, during my PhD and saying,

[Eric]:

Hey, I want to get into this class over in the biostats department, but I think I need,

[Eric]:

uh, like a recommendation to say that, you know, that I should do it. And he was like,

[Eric]:

dude, that's, that's like the hardest class in like a PhD level biostats program.

[Eric]:

I don't think you really

[Alex Andorra]:

Nice. Ha

[Eric]:

want

[Alex Andorra]:

ha ha.

[Eric]:

to do that. Like he was like, I like just don't. And I was like, okay, I understand

[Eric]:

that. Like, cause I was looking for an introductory kind of, you know, get your

[Eric]:

feet wet in Bayesian statistics. And he was like, dog, that's you are going to hate

[Eric]:

your life and they're going to be like, who the hell told you, you could come here.

[Eric]:

So, uh, cause you know, Hey, I know, I know a thing or two, but I'm not, I don't

[Eric]:

have a PhD in biostats. Right. Um, and it's really important to, to kind of. understand

[Eric]:

and adhere to your own limitations as an applied scientist who uses statistics, but

[Eric]:

is not a statistician. So I tried that and didn't really work out. I also pitched

[Eric]:

at one idea, at one point, the idea of doing an independent study in a particular

[Eric]:

statistical approach that was popular in sports science. This was when I was like

[Eric]:

a, I think a master student. And my advisor said, yeah, don't do that. And I was

[Eric]:

kind of bummed at the time, boy, was she right. because the approach that all the

[Eric]:

smart folks were using that I wanted to sink my teeth into, it was called magnitude-based

[Eric]:

inferences. And it was something that was being used in our field, and it was kind

[Eric]:

of framed on the surface as like a mixture between frequentist statistics and Bayesian

[Eric]:

statistics, this kind of hybrid approach that allowed us to make better inferences about

[Eric]:

small sample size research while still staying within the frequentist framework within

[Eric]:

which we're most comfortable. Well, in the last year or two, the last couple of

[Eric]:

years, there's been some papers where a statistician heard that we were doing that

[Eric]:

and they dug around and they're like, wait, what have you guys been doing? And so

[Alex Andorra]:

Hehehe

[Eric]:

they looked into it and they're like, yeah, it's better for small sample sizes because

[Eric]:

your type one error rate is like 20%.

[Alex Andorra]:

Mm-hmm.

[Eric]:

You're just committing tremendous statistical errors. and just not doing rigorous analyses

[Eric]:

with this approach. So the statistical properties of this approach just completely

[Eric]:

failed and then people stopped doing it. So all of that is to say, I tried to kind

[Eric]:

of poke and prod at it when I was a grad student, but our field just wasn't really

[Eric]:

embracing it yet. But in the last couple of years, I'm seeing more and more papers in

[Eric]:

our field that use Bayesian statistics. And to be totally honest, the thing that's

[Eric]:

really changed it, in my view is a JASP software,

[Alex Andorra]:

Uh-huh.

[Eric]:

having a point and click user

[Alex Andorra]:

Yeah.

[Eric]:

interface that opens up Bayesian statistics in a way that feels a lot more accessible to

[Eric]:

folks who don't have a coding background. Cause a lot of folks

[Alex Andorra]:

Mm-hmm.

[Eric]:

in my field, they do not like any code based stat softwares. They like SPSS. And

[Alex Andorra]:

Mm-hmm.

[Eric]:

once they heard JASP was on the menu, they said, okay, fine, I'll try it.

[Alex Andorra]:

Hmm.

[Eric]:

But yeah, so all of that is to say I've been aware of it and quite interested in it

[Eric]:

for a while. When I was doing more of my own stats on studies, I had an interest

[Eric]:

but not enough proficiency to feel comfortable just jumping into it. And yeah, now that I'm

[Eric]:

back in the research game, I think perhaps I'll have better opportunities to finally do

[Eric]:

that.

[Alex Andorra]:

Hmm. Yeah, that's, that's super interesting. Um, thanks for that. Yeah. Like

[Alex Andorra]:

lay of the, lay of the ground. Um,

[Eric]:

A little history lesson and yeah.

[Alex Andorra]:

yeah, I love that. Um, and for sure, like I think, and that's something that's

[Alex Andorra]:

really, I see that as something really positive, uh, for a long time, the main

[Alex Andorra]:

barrier to using patient sense was not even that. How do we train people?

[Alex Andorra]:

Uh, how do we teach them? How do you make that easy to use for them? So like,

[Alex Andorra]:

for instance, with software like, like JASP. But how do you compute that?

[Alex Andorra]:

Basically it was compute power, the main problem, because that integral on

[Alex Andorra]:

the denominator is just the devil. So you have to use approximation methods

[Alex Andorra]:

and that was very hard. Now we have extremely powerful computers, which

[Alex Andorra]:

can do that in just a few seconds. So that... opened a lot of doors basically

[Alex Andorra]:

for people who don't know about these stuff to then use the software that nerdy

[Alex Andorra]:

stat people like us develop to actually use patient stat in their analysis

[Alex Andorra]:

and that's really cool because now I think the barrier to entry has shifted

[Alex Andorra]:

from a computer power issue to a basically manpower issue. Okay. Who do

[Alex Andorra]:

I find? to be my mentor, which book should I read, which video should I look

[Alex Andorra]:

at, which package should I look at. So that's really cool. There is a variety

[Alex Andorra]:

of packages to do it in Python, mainly of course in my, well, PIMC a lot. BAMBEE

[Alex Andorra]:

is extremely useful because it allows you to do basically PIMC models,

[Alex Andorra]:

but instead of writing completely the model, you use FORMULA. Is that how you

[Alex Andorra]:

say that? It's used in R a lot. So formula syntax, yes, formula syntax. In

[Alex Andorra]:

R, I know you use R a lot. So I

[Eric]:

Yeah.

[Alex Andorra]:

would recommend looking at BRMS, which is extremely good, very powerful, based

[Alex Andorra]:

on Stan, which is state of the art algorithms below that. And we have had

[Alex Andorra]:

Paul Buechner, the founder, I mean, the main developer of B. the creator

[Alex Andorra]:

of BRMS on the podcast. I will link that in the show notes. And also, since

[Alex Andorra]:

you mentioned JASP, we had EJ Wagenmarkers on the podcast, episode 61, for

[Alex Andorra]:

people who want to listen to that. That was a really interesting one, because

[Alex Andorra]:

EJ is one of the main persons developing and coordinating the development

[Alex Andorra]:

of JASP. And actually, that episode was really interesting because EJ is...

[Alex Andorra]:

really versed into psychology research. And basically, I remember I called

[Alex Andorra]:

that episode, why we still use non-Vision methods. That's very EJ spirit.

[Alex Andorra]:

So it's an interesting listen. I'll link that in the show notes, too. So yeah,

[Alex Andorra]:

to me, that's a really good sign that now this is basically the main thing.

[Alex Andorra]:

And so yeah, in the R world, I would say BRMS is one of the main things

[Alex Andorra]:

to look at. Also, the book and video series on YouTube by Richard McAlrath

[Alex Andorra]:

called Statistical Rethinking. Extremely good, very pedagogical. And he's

[Alex Andorra]:

actually teaching in Dresden at the Max Planck Institute, so evolutionary

[Alex Andorra]:

anthropology. And there is a lot of examples of what that, so that should

[Alex Andorra]:

be familiar to you. I send that to you because it's a really extremely good

[Alex Andorra]:

resource.

[Eric]:

Yeah, that'd be great.

[Alex Andorra]:

Yeah. And I mean, so to, and then to narrow down on what patient stats can

[Alex Andorra]:

do here. Yeah, I do think that the low sample size thing and also the intersubject

[Alex Andorra]:

variability is tremendously important. And the good thing is that it comes

[Alex Andorra]:

out of the box in the patient framework, because, well, you have the priors

[Alex Andorra]:

basically. And on that note, I. read recently one of the new papers by Andrew

[Alex Andorra]:

Gelman, which people are familiar with, of course, Jessica Holman and Lauren

[Alex Andorra]:

Kennedy. I'll post that into the show notes and I sent it to you, Eric,

[Alex Andorra]:

because I found it really interesting because basically the idea... So you know the

[Alex Andorra]:

correlation

[Alex Andorra]:

So basically a lot of people are familiar with it. Basically, the same correlation

[Alex Andorra]:

number can be explained by a lot of different data points patterns. And

[Alex Andorra]:

here, what they do in the paper is that they develop causal quartets, where

[Alex Andorra]:

they basically show that the same average treatment effect can be explained

[Alex Andorra]:

by a variety of different causal patterns. where you would have completely different

[Alex Andorra]:

data set and data points. But if you just look at the average treatment effect,

[Alex Andorra]:

you would think that these are the same data points in a way. And it's the

[Alex Andorra]:

same experiment, even though it's absolutely not and it's explained by different

[Alex Andorra]:

causal factors. So I'm aware I'm explaining that in a podcast. But

[Eric]:

Yeah.

[Alex Andorra]:

this is very, actually I can, oh, I'm forgetting, but I can. share my screen

[Alex Andorra]:

here now. And here, I'm going to do that for people who are watching on YouTube.

[Alex Andorra]:

Going to share my screen here. And here, I have the paper. And at some point

[Alex Andorra]:

in the paper, you have these kind of quartets here, for instance, where

[Alex Andorra]:

these plots are basically explaining the same data. Can you see my screen?

[Eric]:

It's loading.

[Alex Andorra]:

Ah, it's loading. Okay. So maybe that doesn't work,

[Eric]:

But I did my homework.

[Alex Andorra]:

but.

[Eric]:

I looked at the paper so I know what you're referring to. Ah, there it is,

[Alex Andorra]:

Okay,

[Eric]:

I see

[Alex Andorra]:

cool.

[Eric]:

it now.

[Alex Andorra]:

Oh, yeah, there it is. Yeah. So basically, you've seen that, right? Like

[Alex Andorra]:

basically,

[Eric]:

Yeah.

[Alex Andorra]:

you have four graphs showing different patterns of causal effect, but the

[Alex Andorra]:

four graphs have the same average effect of 0.1. And so I don't know, yeah, what

[Alex Andorra]:

did you think about that paper? Is that something that you think is really

[Alex Andorra]:

different for your field? Is that something that you've seen also in your

[Alex Andorra]:

field?

[Eric]:

Well, yeah, I mean, you know, I think one of the big challenges that we have in our

[Eric]:

field being kind of attached to the frequentist approach to statistics is that

[Eric]:

we really don't like to mess with the nuances of distributions. You know,

[Alex Andorra]:

Mm-hmm.

[Eric]:

we like to condense a lot of things down to, you know, average observed effect

[Eric]:

with a you know, with a symmetrical confidence interval around it. And we like

[Eric]:

to cross our fingers and hope that all relationships are linear when we're looking

[Eric]:

at continuous

[Alex Andorra]:

Mm-hmm.

[Eric]:

data. Um, even though we know deep down in our heart that they're, they're probably

[Eric]:

not. Right. So like, you know, we run into so many things, especially in sports science,

[Eric]:

where we talk about, um, you know, how much training volume should you do? Of course

[Eric]:

we know that there's going to be at least a ceiling effect where you reach just

[Eric]:

completely diminishing returns. And if nothing, I mean, if not a ceiling effect,

[Eric]:

more likely we start to see that too much volume. For a while it's more productive

[Eric]:

and then eventually becomes counterproductive as you exhaust your ability to actually effectively

[Eric]:

recover from that training stimulus. And so, if you had a dollar for every paper

[Eric]:

that assumes a linear relationship between training volume and the resulting. training

[Eric]:

adaptations, you'd be quite wealthy. And so, yeah, I think there's tremendous benefit

[Eric]:

in saying, not just, I think there's benefit in branching out beyond this simplistic

[Eric]:

idea of assuming that all of these causal effects we see in the literature can be boiled

[Eric]:

down to, like I said, an average effect with a symmetrical confidence interval or a

[Eric]:

perfectly linear relationship. You know, plus of course the, you know, the error term

[Eric]:

in the model, but, um, yeah, I thought this was a really fantastic paper and a point

[Eric]:

that goes, uh, yeah, it doesn't get discussed as much as it ought to, uh, you know,

[Eric]:

how these different distributions lead to, uh, tremendously different applications,

[Eric]:

you know, cause I mean, if you're in exercise and sports science, um, you're an

[Eric]:

applied researcher almost by default. You know, there's not, not a lot of, not a

[Eric]:

tremendous amount of basic science going on. And so usually the question is, okay, you

[Eric]:

found this, you answered this question, you addressed this hypothesis. Now what do

[Eric]:

we do with it? How does it turn into an intervention for a healthy person or a clinical

[Eric]:

population or a person in a particular set of circumstances? And the actual pattern

[Eric]:

of data becomes quite important.

[Alex Andorra]:

Yeah. And so thanks. Thanks a lot for taking a look at that paper. That's

[Alex Andorra]:

pretty cool. And yeah, to echo what you were saying. Also, I encourage people

[Alex Andorra]:

to read it. The paper is really easy to read. It's an easy read. It's not a

[Alex Andorra]:

lot of math. Don't worry. It's a lot of graphs actually. And they even developed

[Alex Andorra]:

an R package called causal quartets to dig a bit into that. super interesting read

[Alex Andorra]:

and yes, something to really keep in mind each time you see that kind of

[Alex Andorra]:

paper only talking about causal average causal effects, treatment effects,

[Alex Andorra]:

especially in the social sciences, as you were as you were saying, Eric, where

[Alex Andorra]:

variability is extremely big between subjects. And I mean, there is a part

[Alex Andorra]:

in the paper that was it's just it's just extremely funny to me where They

[Alex Andorra]:

call here, they talk about like basically, um, citing from the paper. They

[Alex Andorra]:

cite a paper who performed two small survey and they found that women were

[Alex Andorra]:

three times as likely to wear red or pink during certain days of their monthly

[Alex Andorra]:

cycle and that the result achieved conventional levels of statistical significance,

[Alex Andorra]:

but then like you dig into that and it's like mainly explained by. by viability

[Alex Andorra]:

between people. Because, well, some people wear a lot of red. Some people

[Alex Andorra]:

don't wear red at all. And that viability is going to be huge. But then you

[Alex Andorra]:

get this kind of average treatment effect, and that doesn't work at all. So that

[Alex Andorra]:

was a funny part of the paper. And so this is a very pedagogical paper. I

[Alex Andorra]:

encourage people to dig into it. Because, yeah, it's something to keep in

[Alex Andorra]:

mind. And As you were saying, that's really something I notice also when

[Alex Andorra]:

I teach people patient stats, especially when they come from the classic

[Alex Andorra]:

ML side. Once they get the posterior distributions out of the model,

[Eric]:

you

[Alex Andorra]:

the question is always, how do I summarize that? I'm like, no, that breaks

[Alex Andorra]:

my heart always, you know, because I'm like, you've worked so hard to get that

[Alex Andorra]:

posterior distribution. It's not easy to get a whole posterior distribution

[Alex Andorra]:

sometimes. And now that you have that, you want to throw away all that

[Alex Andorra]:

information just to get a point estimate. That's a bit of a shame. So try basically

[Alex Andorra]:

to throw away information as late as possible, basically. And try to get

[Alex Andorra]:

used to the distributions. I know that ant dimension. I know our brain is

[Alex Andorra]:

not good for more than three dimensions. But basically, the idea is not

[Alex Andorra]:

throwing information away, especially when it's hard to come by. and try to throw

[Alex Andorra]:

it away as late as possible. And if you really, really have...

[Eric]:

Yeah, I was smiling. You mentioned that the human brain doesn't like to work in more

[Eric]:

than three dimensions. And I, I over, you know, I was scrolling through Twitter and

[Eric]:

I saw someone who had created a, uh, an R package, uh, for like power and sample

[Eric]:

size calculations. And someone had asked them, you know, how come you didn't make it

[Eric]:

easier to use this, um, this R package to, to estimate. the sample size requirements

[Eric]:

for a four-way interaction and he said well if you're able to accurately predict The

[Eric]:

effect size of a four-way interaction in a social science experiment Then you're

[Eric]:

way smarter than me. So you should be right in the program

[Alex Andorra]:

Yeah. Yeah, for sure. Yeah, yeah,

[Eric]:

I Thought

[Alex Andorra]:

yeah.

[Eric]:

that was really very true. Yeah, once you're getting into the fourth dimension Our

[Eric]:

brains just kind of implode or at least mine does

[Alex Andorra]:

Yeah, yeah, no, I mean, and also like four-way interaction. I would say

[Alex Andorra]:

that's like in the paper, they really argue for thinking more about nonlinear

[Alex Andorra]:

effect. And so that means interactions. But then, yeah, the other caveat you should

[Alex Andorra]:

have, then students get really excited about that. And then you're like, oh,

[Alex Andorra]:

wait, like five-way interactions? I'm not sure you can even interpret that if

[Alex Andorra]:

that exists. So it's like, just calm down. It also happens a lot with hierarchical

[Alex Andorra]:

models, because hierarchical models are really easy, I would say, in the

[Alex Andorra]:

Bayesian framework, because it's just how the framework works. And so you

[Alex Andorra]:

just put parameters into parameters like Russian dolls, which makes it extremely

[Alex Andorra]:

powerful. Hierarchical models are extremely powerful, especially when you

[Alex Andorra]:

have low sample sizes, because then you can pull information and have basically

[Alex Andorra]:

better models. But then it's like, people are like, so can I do a five-nested,

[Alex Andorra]:

five-dimensional nested hierarchy? You can. On paper, you can. Will you be able

[Alex Andorra]:

to identify the top-level hierarchy? And then just also interpret it? I'm not sure.

[Alex Andorra]:

Start

[Eric]:

Yeah.

[Alex Andorra]:

with a two-level nested hierarchy, then we'll see.

[Eric]:

Yeah.

[Alex Andorra]:

I put all of that in the show notes. Lots of things in the show notes for

[Alex Andorra]:

this episode. That's really cool. I really encourage you to take a look

[Alex Andorra]:

at people. And Eric, you are being extremely generous with your time. I'm

[Alex Andorra]:

going to try to start winding down and close up the show. So maybe. Yeah,

[Alex Andorra]:

something I would like to ask you is more forward looking. I had two questions

[Alex Andorra]:

about that, that I'm going to condense into one, and then, uh, and then we'll

[Alex Andorra]:

get more practical for, for people to, to end up the show. So, um, looking

[Alex Andorra]:

ahead, basically, um, I'm curious about what you are mostly excited about in

[Alex Andorra]:

your, in your field of sports and nutrition science and basically like the,

[Alex Andorra]:

the question if there is one big question that you'd like the answer to

[Alex Andorra]:

before you die.

[Eric]:

Yeah, in terms of what I'm excited about, the field is growing up. I mean, it's crazy

[Eric]:

because I have been kind of on the periphery of the field, I would say, for four or five

[Eric]:

years as I finished my PhD, went out, did some, you know, industry work, started

[Eric]:

some companies and whatnot. Now that I'm getting back into it, it's remarkable.

[Eric]:

I'm excited because it's grown in the direction I had hoped. And I most importantly

[Eric]:

didn't have to do any of the hard work. which is great.

[Alex Andorra]:

Hehehehe

[Eric]:

So I was one of those like hypocrites who just said, you guys ought to do this, that

[Eric]:

and the other thing. And then I got the hell out of there. And now that

[Alex Andorra]:

Yeah.

[Eric]:

I'm coming back, I'm like, oh great, you did it all. Awesome, thanks for that. Now

[Eric]:

I'm ready to dive back in now that it's easier to kind of pile on rather than pave

[Eric]:

the path. But yeah, I mean, I remember when I was leaving the, not leaving the, when

[Eric]:

I was taking a little detour, the things I was thinking were, and saying, I was just

[Eric]:

like, man, we need to do low sample size is a problem, right? Why are we not doing

[Eric]:

more multisite trials?

[Alex Andorra]:

Mm-hmm.

[Eric]:

It's such an intuitive way. We're all using the same equipment and the same methods.

[Eric]:

We're all

[Alex Andorra]:

Mm-hmm.

[Eric]:

making the same manufacturing companies richer by using the same machines. So why don't

[Eric]:

we pool our data in these multisite trials and then we can actually make much more

[Eric]:

robust inferences without having to... land these grants that are five times more

[Eric]:

than we're actually feasibly going to get. So I've been seeing more multi-site trials,

[Eric]:

which is really exciting. I remember thinking, we need to be branching out statistically

[Eric]:

and specifically doing more Bayesian analysis, but also doing more hierarchical

[Eric]:

models, kind of adopting that linear mixed model framework. And I've been seeing

[Eric]:

so much more of that. because, and it's perfect for our field, we had gotten locked

[Eric]:

into analysis of variance being the kind of, the default approach to what we do,

[Eric]:

frequentist analysis of variance. And I'm seeing so many more linear mix models and

[Eric]:

hierarchical models and seeing

[Alex Andorra]:

Great.

[Eric]:

so much more application of Bayesian statistics. So those are things that excite

[Eric]:

me. And one thing that I'd really like to see even more of, which we're getting more

[Eric]:

of, is embracing some of those open science principles in two ways. First of all,

[Eric]:

I'm seeing more preprints, which is very

[Alex Andorra]:

Mm-hmm.

[Eric]:

exciting because I just don't think there's any need for us to wait nine, 12 months

[Eric]:

for that thing to get into print. I really like the preprint approach to publication.

[Eric]:

And one area that I'm not seeing quite as much of, but it is happening more, is open

[Eric]:

data, you know,

[Alex Andorra]:

Mm-hmm.

[Eric]:

completely open data files, not... not the sentence at the end that says, if you beg

[Eric]:

me, I will send it. And then they never respond

[Alex Andorra]:

Yeah.

[Eric]:

to emails. But open data, I think is huge for our field because we're so interested

[Eric]:

in inter-individual variation. A really fantastic way to get at that is by doing, ideally,

[Eric]:

if we could do more participant level meta-analyses, we'd be in really good shape

[Alex Andorra]:

Mm-hmm.

[Eric]:

to address some of those things. But you can't do participant level meta-analyses.

[Eric]:

It's very infeasible to do. until you get a little bit more buy-in with open data

[Eric]:

sets. So that's what I'm excited about. And then in terms of questions I wanna answer,

[Eric]:

I have to be honest, like I still am a bit of a generalist at heart. And my overall

[Eric]:

focus is to make sure that we are empowering people to take control of their cardio metabolic

[Eric]:

health if they wish, right? So I'm not into telling anyone what they should or ought

[Eric]:

to do. But for someone who says, hey, I want to feel better every day or, you know,

[Eric]:

change my body weight in the following way, I want to empower people to be able to

[Eric]:

do that in an informed way where they feel like they have a great deal of autonomy

[Eric]:

and self-efficacy. And to make that work, we need effective interventions. And

[Alex Andorra]:

Mm-hmm.

[Eric]:

as I look around, I really don't think that we need any paradigm shifting basic science

[Eric]:

to occur in order to make that happen. I think. you know, what we have now in terms

[Eric]:

of understanding energy balance is pretty robust. I think the biggest things that would

[Eric]:

even come close to being like game changers would be just the fact that we now have a better

[Eric]:

understanding of metabolic adaptation, energy, you know, exercise energy compensation,

[Eric]:

and now seeing this new wave of effective obesity drugs on the market.

[Alex Andorra]:

Mm-hmm.

[Eric]:

I mean, now that we're seeing how these, you know, these different areas interrelate,

[Eric]:

I'm not sitting around waiting for a huge paradigm shift like we're going to potentially

[Eric]:

see in physics, right? Where we say, oh, now we need to rewrite all the textbooks.

[Eric]:

I think really what I'd like to see is more of the just boring everyday science

[Eric]:

where we make incremental progress towards seeing how some of these pieces fit together.

[Eric]:

I think seeing things related to... Health psychology behavior change appetite

[Eric]:

regulation energy expenditure regulation exercise adherence I think those are the final

[Eric]:

pieces where we just need a little bit more of that Regular old-fashioned boring science

[Eric]:

of incremental progress where we start to

[Alex Andorra]:

Mm-hmm.

[Eric]:

put some of these things together And what I'd love to see is a holistic approach

[Eric]:

where we're focusing on Behavior change psychology sleep energy intake, you know diet

[Eric]:

and exercise factors And frankly, right now I'm really optimistic about using those

[Eric]:

in conjunction with some of these new pharmacological interventions for weight reduction.

[Alex Andorra]:

Mm-hmm.

[Eric]:

And what I'd love to see is if perhaps we can get to a point with these non-pharmacological

[Eric]:

interventions that they are all introduced at the beginning and we have the aid of that

[Eric]:

pharmacological intervention to kind of do a lot of the heavy lifting at the beginning.

[Eric]:

but then eventually offer an off-ramp

[Alex Andorra]:

Mm-hmm.

[Eric]:

where a person can say, yeah, I need to do maybe a six or 12 month stint of this

[Eric]:

pharmacological intervention, then get off of it and use these behavioral approaches

[Eric]:

moving forward to maintain that progress. Whether or not we can do that, I think we gotta

[Eric]:

get better. I think we need to really bolster. some of the interventions that we're

[Eric]:

currently doing, but I do see that as potentially something that isn't implausible

[Eric]:

in the near future.

[Alex Andorra]:

Yeah. Thanks for that optimistic note. And I mean, and I do agree. Like I was

[Alex Andorra]:

actually quite surprised when I started digging into the literature that

[Alex Andorra]:

we have, it's not, it's not, you know, cosmology and like Big Bang physics,

[Alex Andorra]:

like we have that stuff not figured out, but I don't know if the Pareto

[Alex Andorra]:

effect is already here, but like really there is some... already solid

[Alex Andorra]:

scientific evidence of things we know and reproducible. Like you try it on

[Alex Andorra]:

people and it works. So apparently

[Eric]:

Yeah.

[Alex Andorra]:

we're there. So that's really good. And yeah, what that made me think is,

[Alex Andorra]:

eh, that's weird. That will still seem in the general public, so many really

[Alex Andorra]:

crappy science and nutrition advice. And basically it's now, it seems to

[Alex Andorra]:

me to be at a point where It's more a question of, okay, how do we package

[Alex Andorra]:

the science that we actually have and the knowledge that we actually have

[Alex Andorra]:

and allow it to percolate into the general audience? And it's more this than

[Alex Andorra]:

really paradigm shifting things that apparently we need right now. Yeah, I

[Alex Andorra]:

agree.

[Eric]:

I'm glad you brought that up because I honestly think the biggest failure of nutrition

[Eric]:

and exercise science collectively is, and I'm not even pointing the finger in terms

[Eric]:

of blame or offering how to fix it. Maybe I'll go away for four or five years and

[Eric]:

they'll fix it all and then I can come back. The

[Alex Andorra]:

Yeah

[Eric]:

widespread failure to do some of that. public outreach and engagement in an effective

[Eric]:

way.

[Alex Andorra]:

Mm-hmm.

[Eric]:

The fact that right now there are so many knowledgeable folks in exercise and nutrition,

[Eric]:

but the people who hold the megaphone are the influencers on Instagram who are dictating

[Eric]:

the public discourse of what fitness looks like and what health looks like. It is

[Eric]:

such a catastrophic failure. And I don't think our fields view it as their responsibility

[Eric]:

yet. And I hope that changes within the next five or 10 years. I hope that, for

[Eric]:

example, I think it's insane that a tenured full professor has all these expectations

[Eric]:

for what they do with their time professionally in terms of community support or service to

[Eric]:

the university, their research, reviewing papers, mentorship, teaching. They have all

[Eric]:

these different things that are... codified into their role as a thought leader in this

[Eric]:

area in the academic world and it seems like the public outreach the public communication

[Eric]:

science communication is so undervalued and Not incentivized in the slightest

[Alex Andorra]:

No.

[Eric]:

and

[Alex Andorra]:

Yeah.

[Eric]:

then everyone looks around and says hey, how come no one listens to us And it's

[Eric]:

like because

[Alex Andorra]:

Yeah.

[Eric]:

that communication you have never made it part of the job. You've never incentivized

[Eric]:

it You've never rewarded it in a meaningful way. And now you're wondering why you don't

[Eric]:

dominate the headlines and lead the discourse. And it's because there's no reason

[Eric]:

for that to be the case. And there are people who are spending all of their day just

[Eric]:

on the communication. And they will out influence you every

[Alex Andorra]:

Oh yeah.

[Eric]:

single day of the week if there's no meaningful attempt of these fields to actually

[Eric]:

lead that outreach. So I'm glad that you brought that up because that is a huge

[Eric]:

failure.

[Alex Andorra]:

Yeah, I mean, I completely agree. That's what I saw. I mean, it's hard work for

[Alex Andorra]:

sure. This is a hard thing. We've struggled with that in the vision stats

[Alex Andorra]:

world for three years. I think we're getting way better now. Surely, almost

[Alex Andorra]:

internally, due to this podcast, I think we can acknowledge it. No, but joking

[Alex Andorra]:

aside, yeah, it's hard work, but it needs to be done because like, Yeah,

[Alex Andorra]:

I've seen the same content you're seeing, of course. And I'm like, it's so messy.

[Alex Andorra]:

I'm like, this is shame because, well, apart from the fact that I still don't

[Alex Andorra]:

understand why people believe what celebrities say, just because they are

[Alex Andorra]:

celebrities. You know, I don't know why you would believe it's celebrity because

[Alex Andorra]:

they are doing some workout or some diet, even though, you know, they are

[Alex Andorra]:

not, they like, they have no knowledge in it. But okay, that aside, it makes

[Alex Andorra]:

me sad always a bit, but I'm like, oh, but we know about that. Like, we

[Alex Andorra]:

like... science knows about that, this falls, and there is a better way

[Alex Andorra]:

to do it. So that would be better for people who are listening to that person

[Alex Andorra]:

to actually do something that works for them and not spend their hard-earned

[Alex Andorra]:

money on something that we know is not going to work. And yeah, so there is

[Alex Andorra]:

definitely a lot of work to do on that. Incentives, extremely important

[Alex Andorra]:

for sure. And I mean, that's also related to something you mentioned before,

[Alex Andorra]:

Also, it's very important on these podcasts, not only because myself, I

[Alex Andorra]:

am an open source developer, but like I know a lot of listeners are open

[Alex Andorra]:

source developers and are the people building these open software. And so

[Alex Andorra]:

of course, open data for us is extremely important. And I think it's changing

[Alex Andorra]:

a bit. I see more and more, you know, academics doing open data and even

[Alex Andorra]:

developing packages, open source packages. Thanks to R and Python mainly, which

[Alex Andorra]:

are picked up and then it's so common in those languages to have an open

[Alex Andorra]:

source package somewhere that yeah, it starts to become a custom, but yeah,

[Alex Andorra]:

like I think universities could make a better job incentivizing basically investing

[Alex Andorra]:

in open source and open source means also open data. So yeah, for sure.

[Eric]:

Yeah, well, my advice to you, if you want to spread the word of Bayesian stats,

[Eric]:

the thing that sold me on it, at least on a theoretical level, when you make someone,

[Eric]:

force them to interact with the true definition and interpretation of a p-value

[Eric]:

and a confidence interval,

[Alex Andorra]:

Yeah.

[Eric]:

I feel like if they know what they're doing and they know what they want to do with

[Eric]:

their research, that alone

[Alex Andorra]:

Mm.

[Eric]:

they should say, wait a minute, there's got to be a better way.

[Alex Andorra]:

Yeah.

[Eric]:

And I do think Bayesian offers just a dramatically more intuitive interpretation

[Eric]:

when it comes to the final output.

[Alex Andorra]:

Yeah, yeah, for sure. For sure. That's completely true. Even though in my experience,

[Alex Andorra]:

the best way to introduce people to patient status when patient status solves

[Alex Andorra]:

one of the problems. They have spent, often in like doctoral students, spent

[Alex Andorra]:

hours on a frequency software and it doesn't work. And then they switch and

[Alex Andorra]:

use, I don't know, BRMS or BAMBi, and then just one line of formula. And that

[Alex Andorra]:

works. That's the best way.

[Eric]:

Yeah.

[Alex Andorra]:

That's the best trojan horse. Yeah.

[Eric]:

Absolutely.

[Alex Andorra]:

Um, so to close up before I ask you the last two questions, um, we've talked

[Alex Andorra]:

a bit about that already, and I think it's something I wanted to cover also,

[Alex Andorra]:

because I know personally, uh, a lot of people, um, these were not in the

[Alex Andorra]:

same circle. So I'm guessing a lot of people, you know, are really already

[Alex Andorra]:

into, into exercise and things like that, but in my world, not necessarily.

[Alex Andorra]:

And, uh, something I often encounter is. Well, a lot of people who tell me that

[Alex Andorra]:

they would like to take better care of their health and their body, but basically

[Alex Andorra]:

they are a bit overwhelmed and they are intimidated by the amount of discipline

[Alex Andorra]:

it requires, at least it seems to them, things like counting your calories,

[Alex Andorra]:

weighing yourself consistently, all those things. So I wanted to close up the

[Alex Andorra]:

show by being practical and basically, ask you what you would recommend

[Alex Andorra]:

to help get those people on their healthier path.

[Eric]:

Yeah, I would say, you know, if you're just getting started, I'm going to give two

[Eric]:

pieces of advice that seem contradictory, but they're actually complimentary. So first

[Eric]:

you want to choose the strategies or the interventions that kind of feel at the

[Eric]:

starting point to be most feasible or most accessible to you, or I guess most enjoyable

[Eric]:

even, right? So you might be someone who says, I want to lose some weight, but I

[Eric]:

don't want to count my calories. Then don't. Let's just change the types of foods

[Eric]:

that you're eating and do some basic portion control. When I won my professional

[Eric]:

status in bodybuilding, I did not count my calories during my contest preparation.

[Eric]:

You

[Alex Andorra]:

No.

[Eric]:

don't

[Alex Andorra]:

Interesting.

[Eric]:

have to. If you know generally what you're eating, then you kind of have a sense

[Eric]:

of how many calories you're eating.

[Alex Andorra]:

Hmph.

[Eric]:

And even if you did calculate it down to the single calorie, guess what? You're wrong.

[Eric]:

I mean, the food labels are not that accurate. There's variability in the energy

[Eric]:

content of food. So anyway, bit of a tangent, but choose the strategies that feel

[Eric]:

like they're going to be the most accessible, most enjoyable, most feasible and build on

[Eric]:

that. So same thing, if you don't want to change your diet at all, but you kind of

[Eric]:

enjoy doing some physical activities, go play basketball more. Boom. Now you've taken

[Eric]:

that first step. And once you're doing more basketball, you're getting in better shape,

[Eric]:

maybe then that progress starts to fuel additional motivation to chip into some of

[Eric]:

those things that used to seem like they were too much, but now you're like, you

[Eric]:

know, I've already come so far. I'd really like to see what we can do here and

[Eric]:

kind of take this up a notch. The other thing is, number two here, is that you want

[Eric]:

to start with goals that are hard enough to care about, but easy enough. to build some

[Eric]:

degree of self-efficacy. You know, you wanna

[Alex Andorra]:

Mm-hmm.

[Eric]:

get your confidence rolling as you go. So, like I said, you wanna choose things that

[Eric]:

are feasible, enjoyable, realistic, but if they're too easy and they're too feasible,

[Eric]:

you're not actually gonna feel like you're doing anything.

[Alex Andorra]:

Mm-hmm.

[Eric]:

And that can actually be a bit of a dead end because the fact that we are making

[Eric]:

positive improvements and making changes to make ourselves better, that alone becomes

[Eric]:

a source of motivation. So what they find in the goal setting literature is that

[Eric]:

if a goal is too hard, you're gonna fail, your self-efficacy will plummet, you

[Eric]:

will start to believe, I actually cannot do this. But if you set a goal that's too easy,

[Eric]:

you do it, but you're like, am I, it's like playing basketball against a four-year-old

[Eric]:

and it's like, yeah, I won, but do I really feel good? Of course I won, right? It's

[Eric]:

not enough to get you excited and make you feel like you're actually making some improvements

[Eric]:

to feel really. happy about and enthusiastic about. So that would be my recommendation.

[Alex Andorra]:

Mm-hmm. Yeah. Love it. Thanks a lot. Thanks a lot, Harry. Again,

[Eric]:

No offense

[Alex Andorra]:

the first

[Eric]:

to four

[Alex Andorra]:

one.

[Eric]:

year olds. I'm sure many of you are good at basketball.

[Alex Andorra]:

Yeah, yeah. If four-year-olds listen to this podcast, please message me,

[Alex Andorra]:

we'll get you on the show. I want that on the show.

[Eric]:

a prodigy out there.

[Alex Andorra]:

Oh yeah. Oh my God. And yeah, the first point made me think we have that

[Alex Andorra]:

saying in French, which is, l'appetit vient en mangeant, which means, I

[Alex Andorra]:

don't think it's true for hunger actually, but it means hunger comes as you

[Alex Andorra]:

eat. So yeah. Like your first option, like it's basically, yeah, try something

[Alex Andorra]:

first. And then you'll see that if you like it, you'll naturally get nerdier

[Alex Andorra]:

about it. I would say. Awesome, Eric, I think we're breaking a record of the

[Alex Andorra]:

longest episode here. So I am not surprised it's with you because I know

[Alex Andorra]:

you have a history of very long, very long recordings behind you.

[Eric]:

Yeah.

[Alex Andorra]:

So, you know, is there any topic I didn't ask you about and that you'd like

[Alex Andorra]:

to mention?

[Eric]:

No, it's a me problem. I go on and on. So I, almost every podcast I go on, they say,

[Eric]:

wow, this is our longest one ever. So sorry about

[Alex Andorra]:

Hahaha

[Eric]:

that folks, but yeah, we've covered everything that the audience can handle. I'm

[Eric]:

sure.

[Alex Andorra]:

Awesome. Yeah. So for people who... Oh, no, wait. I'm forgetting the last

[Alex Andorra]:

two questions. Am I crazy? So yeah, before closing up the show, I'm going

[Alex Andorra]:

to ask you the last two questions I ask every guest at the end of the show because

[Alex Andorra]:

as I always say, it's not the point estimate that counts, it's the distribution

[Alex Andorra]:

of answers. So first one, if you had unlimited time, and resources, which

[Alex Andorra]:

problem would you try to solve?

[Eric]:

Yeah, so I don't think that I'm personally equipped to solve really any of the pressing

[Eric]:

problems in the world, but You did give me unlimited time and unlimited resources So

[Eric]:

I would just assemble a team to do it with all my time and resources I wouldn't tell

[Eric]:

them about how much time they had I'd put a fake sense

[Alex Andorra]:

Mm-hmm.

[Eric]:

of urgency But I would get together the best and the brightest and try to figure

[Eric]:

out a really Powerful solution in terms of generating clean energy for the world generating

[Eric]:

that energy and distributing that energy effectively. I think when I pretend to know

[Eric]:

more about my specific area of expertise, which is always a bad idea, every time I look

[Eric]:

at the world's problems, for a large percentage of them, I see them as energy problems.

[Eric]:

And I think if we could find a tremendous solution to meeting the energy demands of the

[Eric]:

world in a way that is not... detrimental to the environment and can be distributed effectively,

[Eric]:

I think we'd live in a much better world. I would do my own version of the Manhattan

[Eric]:

Project, but it would be for clean energy, and I'd get

[Alex Andorra]:

Mm-hmm.

[Eric]:

the best and brightest together and pay them whatever they need.

[Alex Andorra]:

Nice. Yeah. I love it. And I think we're back to physics

[Eric]:

Yeah.

[Alex Andorra]:

then. When I understood like fusion, nuclear fusion, maybe one of our closest

[Alex Andorra]:

contenders in this.

[Eric]:

Yeah.

[Alex Andorra]:

And second question, if you could have dinner with any great scientific

[Alex Andorra]:

mind dead, alive or fictional, who would it be?

[Eric]:

It would be Leonardo da Vinci.

[Alex Andorra]:

Mm-hmm.

[Eric]:

I don't know if that's too cliche. Have you gotten that one before?

[Alex Andorra]:

Yes, but not that often. Yeah,

[Eric]:

Okay. So

[Alex Andorra]:

less

[Eric]:

the reason

[Alex Andorra]:

often than

[Eric]:

for

[Alex Andorra]:

you

[Eric]:

that,

[Alex Andorra]:

think.

[Eric]:

I was going on a date with someone many years ago, and I wanted to seem smart and cultured.

[Eric]:

So we went to an art museum. It's always a good choice. Good little conversation starters

[Eric]:

along the way. It's great. Good date idea. The exhibit that they had was actually

[Eric]:

like, you know, they had the normal stuff that's always out, but they had a special

[Eric]:

exhibit where they had some of DaVinci's notes on display.

[Alex Andorra]:

Oh nice!

[Eric]:

and it

[Alex Andorra]:

Mm-hmm.

[Eric]:

was fascinating. And I was looking at these notes and reading the summaries of what

[Eric]:

they were, because I'm pretty sure they were in backwards cursive

[Alex Andorra]:

Mm-hmm.

[Eric]:

Italian, if memory serves, with all sorts of shorthand scribbles, and it was chaotic.

[Eric]:

And the

[Alex Andorra]:

Yeah.

[Eric]:

notes were just absolutely, some of them were brilliant, some of them were just

[Eric]:

absolutely insane. And if you look at some of his ideas, you look at some of his

[Eric]:

inventions, look at his multifaceted interests, What more could you want from a

[Eric]:

dinner guest? Just fascinating, a little bit insane, can talk about any topic. Yeah,

[Eric]:

that would be a wild time.

[Alex Andorra]:

Yeah, yeah, I know for sure. And such a life also incredible each time.

[Eric]:

Yeah.

[Alex Andorra]:

Also a big fan. I'm a big fan of Italian culture and the country also in

[Alex Andorra]:

Salso. I often go there and yeah, I was in Rome again a few days ago and

[Alex Andorra]:

just, yeah, what a city incredible and

[Eric]:

Yeah, I

[Alex Andorra]:

yeah.

[Eric]:

mean, I was looking at looking at his notes and when you're on page like six of the

[Eric]:

ramblings about the

[Alex Andorra]:

Mm-hmm.

[Eric]:

lake and river systems on the moon, you're

[Alex Andorra]:

Mm

[Eric]:

getting into the good stuff. I'm just like, dude, what are you talking about?

[Alex Andorra]:

hmm. Yeah, my main question would be, did you write that clean? Or were

[Alex Andorra]:

you on substance? Because if you did that on

[Eric]:

Yeah.

[Alex Andorra]:

a clean brain, that's even more impressive.

[Eric]:

Absolutely.

[Alex Andorra]:

Yeah, kudos. Yeah. And yeah, so if anybody is happens to be in France, in

[Alex Andorra]:

actually my region where I was born, which is called the Loire Valley. You

[Alex Andorra]:

have one castle, which is the castle of Amboise. And really next to that

[Alex Andorra]:

castle, you have a not that small mansion, which is Leonardo da Vinci's

[Alex Andorra]:

last house. He died there. He spent his last few years at the court of Francois

[Alex Andorra]:

Premier. And yeah, like this is called the Clos Lucé. So if you had the

[Alex Andorra]:

opportunity to read it, that's really... Incredible. First, the domain is

[Alex Andorra]:

beautiful. He had his own vines. He was making his own wine. You've got some

[Alex Andorra]:

of the replicas of some of his inventions, and you've got some notes also.

[Alex Andorra]:

His bedroom and so on. That's really a beautiful place to visit. I encourage

[Alex Andorra]:

anybody to go there if they have the opportunity. Well, Eric, I think now

[Alex Andorra]:

we can call it a show. Thank you so much for your time. It was absolutely

[Alex Andorra]:

fascinating. Learned a lot, of course, and motivated to still learn a lot

[Alex Andorra]:

about all this. As usual, I will put a link to all your websites, socials,

[Alex Andorra]:

and so on for people who want to get in touch with you and also a lot of

[Alex Andorra]:

show notes. For those of you who want to dig deeper, thanks a lot, Eric,

[Alex Andorra]:

for taking the time and being on this show.

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