Learning Bayesian Statistics

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If you’re a nerd like me, you’re always curious about the physics of any situation. So, obviously, when I watched Top Gun 2, I became fascinated by the aerodynamics of fighters jets. And it so happens that one of my friends used to be a fighter pilot for the Canadian army… Immediately, I thought this would make for a cool episode — and here we are!

Actually, Jason Berndt wanted to be a pilot from the age of 3. When he was 6, he went to an air show, and then specifically wanted to become a fighter pilot. In his teens, he learned how to fly saliplanes, small single engine aircrafts. At age 22, he got a bachelor’s in aero engineering from the royal military college, and then — well, he’ll tell you the rest in the episode.

Now in his thirties, he owns real estate and created his own company, My Two Brows, selling temporary eyebrow tattoos — which, weirdly enough, is actually related to his time in the army…

In his free time, Jason plays the guitar, travels around the world (that’s actually how we met), and loves chasing adrenaline however he can (paragliding, scuba diving, you name it!).

Our theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work at https://bababrinkman.com/ !

Thank you to my Patrons for making this episode possible!

Yusuke Saito, Avi Bryant, Ero Carrera, Giuliano Cruz, Tim Gasser, James Wade, Tradd Salvo, William Benton, James Ahloy, Robin Taylor, Thomas Wiecki, Chad Scherrer, Nathaniel Neitzke, Zwelithini Tunyiswa, Elea McDonnell Feit, Bert≈rand Wilden, James Thompson, Stephen Oates, Gian Luca Di Tanna, Jack Wells, Matthew Maldonado, Ian Costley, Ally Salim, Larry Gill, Joshua Duncan, Ian Moran, Paul Oreto, Colin Caprani, Colin Carroll, Nathaniel Burbank, Michael Osthege, Rémi Louf, Clive Edelsten, Henri Wallen, Hugo Botha, Vinh Nguyen, Raul Maldonado, Marcin Elantkowski, Adam C. Smith, Will Kurt, Andrew Moskowitz, Hector Munoz, Marco Gorelli, Simon Kessell, Bradley Rode, Patrick Kelley, Rick Anderson, Casper de Bruin, Philippe Labonde, Michael Hankin, Cameron Smith, Tomáš Frýda, Ryan Wesslen, Andreas Netti, Riley King, Yoshiyuki Hamajima, Sven De Maeyer, Michael DeCrescenzo, Fergal M, Mason Yahr, Naoya Kanai, Steven Rowland, Aubrey Clayton, Jeannine Sue, Omri Har Shemesh, Scott Anthony Robson, David Haas, Robert Yolken, Or Duek, Pavel Dusek, Paul Cox, Trey Causey, Andreas Kröpelin and Raphaël R.

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Abstract

written by Christoph Bamberg

In this episode of the Learning bayesian statistics podcast we do not talk about Bayesianism, let alone statistics. Instead we dive into the world of fighter jets and Top Gun pilots with Jason Berndt. 

Jason is a former fighter jet pilot turned entrepreneur. He looks back at his time as a pilot, how he got there, the challenges and thrills of this job and how it influences him now in his new life. 

We also touch upon physics and science related aspects like G-force, centrifugal power, automation in critical environments like flying a fighter jet and human-computer interaction.

Jason discusses the recent movie Top Gun: Maverick and how realistic the flying was as well as the description of the fighter pilots’ lives.

Transcript

Unknown Speaker 0:00

If you're a nerd, like me, you're always curious about the physics of any situation. So obviously, when I watched wn two, I became fascinated by the aerodynamics of fighter jets. And it so happens that one of my friends used to be a fighter pilot for the Canadian Army. Immediately. I thought this would make for a cool episode. And here we are. Actually, Jason burned. That's his name, wanted to be hired from the age of three. When he was six. He went to an airshow and then specifically wanted to become a fighter pilot. Yes, that is a dedicated kid, ladies and gentleman, in his teens decent learn how to fly sunny planes, which are small single engine aircraft. Don't worry, I didn't know what those were either. At age 22, he got a bachelor's in Iraq engineering from the Royal Military College, and then well, he'll tell you the rest in the episode. Now in his 30s, Jason owns real estate and created his own company, my two bros selling temporary eyebrow tattoos. Yes, that's themed, which weirdly enough is actually related to his time in the army. So mysterious. In his free time. Jason plays the guitar travels around the world. That's actually how we met and loves chasing adrenaline. However, he can paragliding scuba diving, you name it. This is learning Bayesian statistics Episode 75, recorded November 320 22. Welcome to Learning Bayesian statistics, the fortnightly podcast on Bayesian inference methods project in the people who make it possible. I'm your host, Alex Andorra. You can follow me on Twitter, and Exeter, Ventura, like the country. For any info up at the podcast, learn Bayes nets that govern Laplace to beat shownotes becoming a corporate sponsor supporting lbs and Patreon and looking bass merge everything easy beer that's learned bass dance, duck. If with all that info or Bayesian model is still resisting you or if you find my voice is specially smuggled, and want me to come in Teach patient stance in company then reach out at an expert and neuron at pi MC dash labs.io or book a call with me at Learn bass dance.gov Thanks a lot folks, and best patient wishes to you

Unknown Speaker 2:27

all. Let me show you how to be a good crazy and change your predictions after taking information

Unknown Speaker 2:35

can now be less than amazing. Let's adjust those expectations. What's a Bayesian is someone who cares about evidence and doesn't jump to assumptions based on intuitions and prejudice. A Bayesian makes predictions on the best available info and adjust the probability because every belief is provisional and when I kicked the flow, mostly I'm watching eyes widen me because my likeness lowers expectations of tight Reimann, how would I know unless I'm rhyming in front of a bunch of blind men dropping placebo controlled science? Like I'm Richard Feynman.

Unknown Speaker 3:06

Hello motivations. This time, I want to thank Rafale are yes, he's very mysterious. Maybe he's even the one who invented the programming language, we will never know. Since you're in jail for joining the lbs atrium in the full posterity here. I am so grateful, honestly, to all of you folks who make the effort of giving lbs the equivalent of a cafe latte per month, as a famous French song says super dead hum de Pape awful, become more. So in your book. By the way, we just released the video of our labs workshops about hierarchical Bayesian modeling of survey data with stratification. Yes, that's a mouthful, but that's very interesting. So I put the link in the show notes if you want to check. Now let's talk about planes, fighter jets and the physics of talking to Jason Burton. Jason burned. Welcome to Learning Bayesian statistics.

Unknown Speaker 4:08

Thanks, Alex. I'm excited to be here.

Unknown Speaker 4:10

Yeah, me too. This is a very funny episode. This is I think a first of its kind because we So full disclosure, we actually know each other personally. And so I think you're one of the first guests who I knew before inviting on the podcast instead of the other way around. So yeah, basically, we're friends in like, general life, normal life outside of statistics. And this is a special episode today because it's going to be a bit less Bayesian focused. Still very nerdy and full of physics. Don't you worry, guys, resist that. I just saw Top Gun too. recently. I was actually in the plane to Los Angeles. So that was cool. Watching token two in a plane. And I was just amazed at the physics of fighter jets. So I was like, Wait, Jason must know a thing or two, but that then they could make For a nice podcast episode, so boom, here we are. So thank you for taking the time.

Jason Berndt 5:05

Right on. Yeah, I'm looking forward to having this chat. I think it could be an interesting one I was talking to recently as well. I think I watched it when I was in Peru or something. They had an English night or something. So, and it was a cool movie. And no, I

Unknown Speaker 5:17

remember you asked me at some time, like, you've watched him get to it. And I was like, oh, no, I haven't yet. You're like, You're shocked. You're like, you haven't watched it?

Unknown Speaker 5:27

Yeah, I mean, it's a good movie. And I liked it. And I want to talk and one in my teens, I think it wants to over 15 times if something when I was a teenager because I wanted to be a fighter pilot for so long. So it was like, top guns like my probably one of my favorite movies of all time as a growing up and then it was awesome to see the second one come up.

Unknown Speaker 5:45

Yeah. Damn, I wish so well, movie like that. But Bayesian statistics, you know, that they could point people to when they asked me what I do, like when you do that very sexy thing. Like there was a movie, you know, you can make characters me. That'd be cool. Maybe we should do that. I'll give the nerds on that project. We should guys, we should make a movie about Bayesian statistics

Unknown Speaker 6:06

to Tidewater.

Unknown Speaker 6:09

So for that, basically, we're going to dig into your story. But tell us basically, who you are today and what your daily activity is. And let's say and so that we can contrast with actually something that you were doing today. What you that you were doing before, and that is very related to the podcast episode, the the topic for this podcast episode.

Unknown Speaker 6:30

Yeah, sure. So right now, day to day in my new life, I guess you could say cuz I've recently changed kind of the way I'm living my life at the age of, I guess, 30. I did that and 32 now, but today, I'm living that kind of the digital nomad type life. So I've been traveling all over the world. And obviously, that's how you and I met in Budapest. And for the last 11 months, I've been different places in South America and Europe and kind of on a day to day basis and deciding where I'll go and you know, what I'll see or whatever. And right now, I'm based out of Budapest. So it's kind of the traveling life is what I'm doing right now enjoying kind of every day and exploring new things in the world. And then kind of On the work front, in order to obviously continue to develop myself and do things rather than that or other than just traveling around the world. I own some real estate in Canada where I do passive income type investing, Airbnb and long term rentals and stuff like that based on kind of that book, Rich Dad Poor Dad by Robert Kiyosaki, which I got into before I changed my lifestyle here. And then most recently, what I got into was a business where I own a business that's out of the United States, called my two brows, temporary eyebrow tattoos and, and I sell fake eyebrows or temporary eyebrow tattoos, some people call them stickers, temporary eyebrow stickers, but essentially fake eyebrows for people who have no eyebrows at all differ due to things like alopecia, chemotherapy, trichotillomania, and we sell little sheets of them, and then people buy them all over the world, and we send it to them. I wear that myself too. So I'm wearing that as well, because I lost my eyebrows maybe about a decade ago from alopecia and they haven't come back yet. Although a lot of my hair is coming back now. So yeah, and

Unknown Speaker 8:11

actually the well, that perfect segue to Yeah, and we'll put links to your, your business like to the eyebrow boost business that you have, because I also the, you know, the origin story of that company, because sort of related to basically what you did before, and like you lost your hair and eyebrows, because of basically all the stress, you had been a fighter pilot. And what I love is like, well, you built a company then based on that pretty awful experience to leave probably. And but based on that you you managed to build a company. So I just love that origin story.

Unknown Speaker 8:45

No, yeah, because I mean, what happened is, when I was a kid, I had like a few spots, the hair that left or whatever fell out or whatever, but then it didn't really hit until I was in the military college. I went to the military college in Canada for four years and did an aeronautical engineering degree there. And then they coupled it with all kinds of military stuff where we had to wake up at like six in the morning do push ups and some crazy music. They'd wake us up to like, I don't know if you know the show, but the song bodies like that Bodies Hit The Floor. I remember my first morning there I woke up to them blasting that allowed PA speakers at six in the morning and hitting our doors get up and we had to be outside by the end of that song ready for push ups and stuff. So when I was in the military college it during the engineering degree there I just I end up being so stressed, I lost my hair, it started to come back at the start of flight training. But then once I got into the fighter jets and stuff like that, and fell out again, because it's just pretty stressful. And the brows are gone ever since the first spot there or whatever. So yeah, I

Unknown Speaker 9:40

can get that. So yeah, actually, let's dig into that. Because like as you were saying, this is your second career now. So let's talk about the first one. How did you become a fighter pilot? In why?

Unknown Speaker 9:52

ible graphics obviously isn't:Unknown Speaker:

And so, actually, I'm curious because it's like, so it seems like it's a very long training. And once you have your wings, as you say, like for how long usually people keep flying, because it seems to be also a very physical endeavor. So I'm wondering like, is it something like, you know, professional sports, professional athletes were coming into certain age it starts become very difficult physically, or can people fly fighter jets until they are? I don't know. 50s See until they retire? Yeah,

Unknown Speaker:

that's a good question. I mean, generally, I don't think you'll see guys flying jets into their 60s for a couple reasons. One would be physical, because it is a very physical task to do. I mean, I remember when I first started flying these and pulling GE and stuff like that I was physically dead, like, at the end of the day, so tired and you know, sleep really well. So it is a very physical job in that cockpit. And you're moving all over the place looking left, right behind you, while but under, you know, up to seven and a half g, you know, all of the cockpit, just moving your head and fighting accelerator forces and stuff like that. So, yeah, it's tiring. That being said, there are our guys, Canada who fly these into they're probably into their 40s or so. But generally at that point, the way it works is kind of is like you're also like in the military. There's also progression of rank and responsibility and different things, too. So generally, the guys unless you're what we call the career captain, which there are like some guys, we'll just be captains forever until they retire. And they'll just fly and maybe they'll end up they'll end up on some ground tour in between flying tours, but they could fly. And I'm probably into there, at least maybe 50 years old or something. But for most guys, what happens is that's kind of like mid 20s To like, mid 30s guys will really be flying a lot. And then they'll end up in more administrative positions or, you know, higher rank stuff or whatever, where they kind of fly a little less. And maybe they'll end up in more leadership positions in the Air Force all the way going up to like commanders of bases or, or even at the Air Force. I mean, one of the last commanders of caner or military was General Lawson, he was a fighter pilot, but he wasn't flying fighter jets at that time in his life at all, you know, because he was commanding the military, whatever. So yeah, I

Unknown Speaker:

see. Yeah. So we do super physical, right. Actually, like you already mentioned the DS you're taking. So I mean, they make a big deal out of that in the target movie. So like they take 90 At some point, the mission. So yeah, by the way, guys, lots of spoilers. So if you haven't seen one, too, and don't want to be spoiled, stop the episode right now. But yes, originally in the mission, they take up to nine G's. So like, is that something that you actually did? That's actually doable? That submission is actually happened during that? Or is that kind of unrealistic here? But also, in general? What's your experience was like taking so many G's? You

Unknown Speaker:

sure? I mean, yeah. So they, I think, yeah, it was nine G or something. And from what I remember, they they had, they were required overstressed the aircraft to do that in the movie. So they hit something called the paddle switch, which gives an override, you know, essentially that the Hornet and most fly by computer kind of systems or whatever, in jets will automatically limit their G based or their centripetal acceleration or whatever you want to call it, or G force or whatever. They'll limit themselves to a certain number of G's or whatever to avoid the pilot breaking the aircraft, essentially. But there's a new movie they override, they press the override. And the reason they did that, I think in the movie, if I remember correctly, is because based on the speed they were going and the amount they need to pull up, they had to essentially pull that much G in order to not hit the mountain or something like that. Is that certainly a that's a real world consideration, I guess, if you're at a certain speed and certain altitude or and you have to avoid a certain piece of terrain. I mean, it's certainly I mean, that would be That's quite the intense, it's certainly quite an intense thing to consider. I mean, literally, if you need to do a mission where you need to overstress your aircraft in order to do it. I mean, it's but they make a good point of seeing that movie, too. It's like yeah, this isn't normal, you know, generally what Hornets and people are doing in air combat or medium level tactics where you're quite often up well above the earth and doing things up there where you're not really in risk of hitting the ground and in such a time you I don't think you'd be pressed to ever really need to hit nine G or anything like that. I've experienced that the nine Gina centrifuge so they in Toronto and Canada, they train the fighter pilots or would be fighter pilots or people that are trying to become fighter pilots anyways, to see if we can handle those accelerated forces to do force. And they put us up to nine I think is nine G for some videos of it. Actually, they took videos of it for I think it was 15 seconds or something. But with the nine G we were wearing what they called G pants, and so they squeezed these pants, squeeze your legs with air you ever get your arm. Yeah, you test your blood pressure, like that, but like way more and will squeeze all the way from the bottom, your legs all the way up to your belly and so that the blood kind of it tries to keep the blood in your head. So we did nine G in that and then we did I think seven or seven and a half on the centrifuge with no pants or something like that. In the jet itself I pulled up to you know, just over seven G or something like that. So while I'm flying Yeah,

Unknown Speaker:

yeah. And to be clear, it's with no pants with no GPS, right? You still have fins in the centrifuge. Featuring some very interesting stuff here. Yeah, like, I mean, how do you even like can you even train for that or it's just like you go regularly in the centrifuge, or is just something that your body can just stay a kid when it's pretty young and So basically you cannot, or other people who actually can take G force way better than others, such as genetic difference, or can you like, train for it?

Unknown Speaker:

Yeah, you certainly can train for it. So in fact, when you go on the centrifuge course, it's considered a training course. So they teach you how to do it. So you don't just kind of sit there, even with pants or no pants, you know, just kind of just subject yourself to the G, what you do is, there's a certain way to actually contract your muscles and breathe to withstand G to the highest level that essentially your body can. And so the way it works is you the while the intent is this, so let's say that you have like, I don't know, let's say you have 10 pounds of blood in your head or something. And let's say that you pull 70. So essentially acts as if it's 70 pounds of blood in your head, let's say, and so that's 70 pounds of blood, and your head is going to want to leave your head much more than maybe 10 pounds, whatever. So the G force is trying to pull the blood out of your head. And the reason for it trying to leave your head is based on the way you're sitting, I suppose. If you were sitting upside down, then it would actually be have the opposite effect. But anyway, then you wouldn't want blood being pushed into your head either, because your eyes would explode. So nobody could do like negative seven G, that's for sure. Positive G's easier to handle. So anyway, so with positive G to acting down your spine, essentially, it's trying to leave your head, the blood. So how do you stop it from leaving head or make it harder for the blood to leave your head? Well, there's ways that they can train you to do that. So you can flex essentially, what you do is you flex your muscles sequentially, all the way from your lower calves up your thighs, your abs, and then all the way into your neck and you breathe in such a way like and you're really breathing and it pushes the blood up into your head. And if I do it like for you right now, you could see, I don't know if you want to see it, but you could see my head turn actually read like a tomato, if you know. And right now it puts a lot of blood in the head. But if you're under g, then it just keeps less of your blood from leaving your head essentially. And but I mean only up to a certain point, yeah, because if you lose all the blood from your head, or a lot of certain amount of it, you'll lose consciousness and you'll lose consciousness and you won't regain consciousness for over 30 seconds at least, which is enough time for you to snack hit the ground. I mean, people have died for that. And then if you lose just before that, if you get tunnel vision and it goes black, you're very close to losing consciousness. And that's what they call the difference between a blackout and a G lock or G induced loss of consciousness and the G lock will kill you. Because you'll crash and there's no other people. Yeah, usually in fighter jets other than the pilot. Some have navigators F 18. Super Hornets have guys in the back. But f 18 legacy Hornets F 30 fives F 16. Most don't have any. It's just one pilot and nobody else on the plane. So if you lose consciousness, you're dead. Unless you have one of those I mean, some f 16 Those states have like systems that will actually auto level the wings and pull out of a dive the pilot goes unconscious, but certainly not all aircraft. I'd say probably the minority of aircraft. How but

Unknown Speaker:

yeah, it's really a big deal. Like if you cannot take that be too huge danger to yourself. So

Unknown Speaker:

yeah, that's right. In the pants help, too, obviously. So yeah, yeah,

Unknown Speaker:find that stuff at what, like:Unknown Speaker:

Yeah, yeah. So that's a good point. I mean, realistically, for flying, it can help to have like an engineering background for sure. I would say it's certainly not required, though. I mean, as an operator of a fighter jet, I mean, what do you by the time you get to the jets and you're flying on these jets? Like I think the engineering can help you more in mind kind of in the primary levels of flying stuff like for at least to a point that actually you can notice it you know, maybe when you're first learning to fly airplanes, elementary flying, you know, okay, I get this about lift and drag and the different forces that act on a plane and how this all works, because you're essentially learning to fly I mean, by the time you get to flying something like the Hornet which is or any fighter jet for that matter, flying is kind of is taken for granted at that point, and you're not really thinking about the flying anymore. So like I learned to fly the Hornet I took it solo the third time I ever was in a hornet cockpit. I was alone, so nobody was with me. That was my third flight. And so and it was just because we already knew how to fly we flew something called the T six Texan or the CP 156 Harvard before that. aerobatic trainer cp 1.5 hawk which is like what the British Red Arrows fly those were where we learned how to fly like aerobatics and stuff and and even before that more elementary flying, but by the time we're flying the Hornet I mean, it's not that hard of a plane to fly. i in terms of flying itself, I mean, it is in that you go fast. And time is always kind of your enemy when you're flying that because of how fast you're going. It's like every second counts. But it was the tactics that were really the challenging part, the missiles, shooting the missiles, the bombs, the guns, stuff like that. And I wouldn't say those things were necessarily at all, I don't think engineering necessary, helped so much for that maybe in terms of like, how difficult it was, and how difficult was to be learning to fly the Hornets and maybe how to study things, or whatever. But certainly, I flew with people who did other degrees, history degrees, English degrees, stuff like that, and they didn't have any problems at all. So

Unknown Speaker:

yeah, that's quite amazing, right? I mean, this is an awesome testimony to what homosapiens can do by collaborating and being like, everyone extremely specialized in something, because the engineers who built those planes cannot fly them. But on the other end, you cannot engineer that kind of plane, if you're not, in don't have like a strong understanding of the physics and engineering. And so it's just all those collaborations of extremely specialized people that makes all that whole endeavor possible. It's pretty incredible. Like, whereas if you had to do everything on your own, well, we would probably just still be using very rudimentary aeroplanes.

Unknown Speaker:

Oh, yeah, that's true. I mean, it's an interesting thought for sure. I guess

Unknown Speaker:

that means like, something that they always say in the in the movie, you know, it's like, it's the very American stuff. It's like, you know, don't think just fly. And so I guess from what you're saying, it's basically true, right? See, it's just like, I mean, in the sense that that point, it's just, you should be able to fly automatically, in a way. That's what you're saying,

Unknown Speaker:but you're somewhere in that:Unknown Speaker:

And it's super interesting raises so many questions, but basically like something that was there is an awesome scene in the movie, where basically, they will they escape with an F 14, which is apparently way older than the F 18. And then they have these like, the enemy has what they called fifth generation fighter jet. So at some point, that fifth generation jet, basically like goes instead of being horizontal to the ground and starts being vertical. And so because of the air, it goes back, and then it becomes horizontal again to the ground and that the whole point of that maneuver was because before it was in front of the F 14 and beat by doing that maneuver, then it ends up being behind it and then it has the upper And, and like that That scene is really amazing in the movie. But the guys in the F 14 are really super surprised that the guy was able to do that. So, in a way, it's a way for me to ask like how realistic is top down to in a way and I these kinds of maneuver? Is it something that actually is possible? And if it is easy only with that kind of new kind of airplane? Or actually they did the guys in year 14 shouldn't be that surprised?

Unknown Speaker:

Yeah, that's a good question. For sure. I mean, overall, big picture is talking to realistic I was actually quite surprised. Like, I think there's a lot of really good things in there that certainly encompass fighter pilot culture the way it is, I mean, right down to even like, the personalities of some of the dynamics between the pilots and the navigator or the air weapons system operator guy and, and the dynamics between the man and the woman and stuff like that. I mean, these are well done. I mean, and they were talking about realistic things and issues between fifth Gen and fourth gen fighters in terms of avionics and different sensor systems, and things like that. So it seemed like they did a good job. I mean, certainly a lot of the this bombing run they needed to do was quite intense, maybe, but like the weapons they were using the things they're talking about, were really on point. I think at one point they like flew under a bridge or something, which I thought was a little crazy, but I guess if you're up against the surface to air missile that he's going to shoot you down, if you're too high, I can see the what they're getting out there. So I think generally, is fairly well done in terms of realism, although it was a very, very intense mission set that they were they were doing. And the accuracy that they were looking to achieve was pretty intense as well with that mom, from what I remember, you know, with a, I would say a very low probability of success. They say that in the movie though, too. So okay, I'll give them credit. They say it's a low probability of success, but they don't really have any other option from what I understand the movie. So cool. Yeah. Now, I mean, you look at that F 14, versus that fifth Gen. enemy jet from what I remember in there. I mean, I remember something similar in Top Gun two, Top Gun one as well, where Maverick goes, you know, I'm gonna hit the brakes and you'll fly right by and goose in the bags. Like you're gonna do what? Or whatever, you know, essentially, I mean, it's a case of kind of what you're talking about with this fifth Gen jet. It sounds like from what I remember in the scene, the fifth Gen jet kind of it's what do you call it? Downrange travel? Stop. I mean, it Hornets can do this. Lots of fighter jets can do it better or worse than others, depending on if they're considered like a quote unquote, slow speed fighter, or not, like, for example of F 16. Falcon, or more well known as a viper. Generally wouldn't be so good at something like this, whereas an F 18 Hornet is quite good at it. And there's different enemy aircraft that can be better. I think the way they frame this in the movie is as if because it's a fifth Gen, that it can maybe do a better maneuver, downrange, travel stop. Maybe maybe not. But generally, fifth Gen Xers are kind of the whole fifth Gen argument is more so of an avionics one, I would say then, you know, you can create like an aircraft that can do certain types of maneuvers where downrange, you know, it slows down really quickly, like the F 18. Or Or maybe this one that this prize by maybe they're surprised because it does a better job than what they're used to, with the FAA team, for example, that they normally fly. But I wouldn't say it's necessarily based on the fact that it's a fifth Gen so much as maybe a newer Gen that they are jet that they haven't haven't really seen so much of if that makes sense. So yeah, it it certainly doesn't stop and it doesn't stop me there. But what it appears to stop, yeah, relative to the F 14, because the F 14 is an intercepting it's an interceptor aircraft. So they were never made, they certainly weren't made for any, you know, kind of slow speed fighting or anything like that. So an FAA team should be able to effectively do something similar against an F 14, maybe as well, you could say, if that makes sense. Yeah, I

Unknown Speaker:

see it. And so these fifth generation fighters like is that the new generation of fighter jets that we have right now? And like, what's the main difference with the ones that you for instance, the F 18? Yeah, everything's

Unknown Speaker:ourth gen, they're like early:Unknown Speaker:

yeah, yeah. Okay. So I understand that actually gets to something I wanted to talk about also is like, technology in human factor, because it's actually a theme in talking to and I think here it's a bit of a caricature appears like Ed Harris character for instances like, these be, I think Admiral and his logo. Yeah, like fighter jets. So fighter pilots are completely obsolete. We're gonna replace you all by automated drones and so on, you know, which is like, I mean, I'm working technology. And I'm like, Yeah, that sounds a bit, you know, over the top. But I guess it it serves as, you know, not dramatic effect in the movie. But more seriously, yeah, I'm, like, curious about what you think, you know, what does the future of that job look like to you in a way and in particular, in relation to automation and automated solutions, which is, I think, what you called a few onyx, in the lingo.

Unknown Speaker:

Yeah, I mean, automated solution. Yeah. So like, it's an interesting question. It's kind of up for debate, obviously. And the hard part, I think, here is, okay, well, I think like, fighting a distance type things, I think, in terms of automation could end up taking over a lot. I mean, you know, like the things that you're doing a distance, you know, when you're fighting each other long ways away from each other, whenever launching missiles far away, and that kind of stuff, the maneuvers aren't really, that are required aren't necessarily, you know, maybe not quite as dynamic as if you're in dogfight, you know, one on one with somebody pulling seven, half g, whatever, kind of fight the dogfight of some sort, right? And because you have so much distance between you, and you can kind of take more time or whatever, what are you going to do? So I think, and in terms of flying itself, I mean, certainly, we're there with lots of autopilot stuff. I mean, if you're flying from A to B, you can turn on autopilot, right down to almost landing an aircraft. I mean, in some aircraft, you can land them, it's just a matter of how much avionics you have onboard. So airplanes do lend themselves as well. And you can go, you know, land them right down to zero visibility and stuff like that. So I think the automation stuff is coming. And there's certainly aspects of flying fighter jets that can be replaced. I think the biggest limiting factor with this is going to be sensors, maybe because, I mean, a long time ago, they said that maybe nobody would ever be able to translate languages, except for a human. And now I guess, like, you know, you could just use a Google Translate or whatever, when you're in South America, or wherever hungry, like I use sometimes, but uh, you know, but, uh, so maybe something's possible, but from what it seems like right now, to me, it's like, how can you create so many sensors on an aircraft to be able to effectively give a 360 degree coverage up to how far away behind it in front of it, whatever, and then be able to use those sensors based on angles between the aircraft and whether or not it looks like an aircraft is gonna shoot guns at you, or missile or whatever, and be able to make the aircraft automatically react, it seems like that might be a point at which it's, it'd be very difficult to be able to get automation, where, because it's almost like, at some point, it's like, it requires the judgment of a pilot to look behind him if he's getting shot out or something and be like, okay, you know, this looks like time to do a certain maneuver or whatever, based on what's presented to you with the airplane behind you. Maybe it'd be easier if you're the one taking the shots, I guess you could say, but then there's different things about rules of engagement, and whether or not you legally should be shooting and stuff like that as well. So it's a tricky one

Unknown Speaker:

Mendeecees awesome, these like, so basically, you know, I don't think you know, but this whole, what we often say in the Bayesian stats framework is that it's actually a framework of statistics that emphasizes the human factor. And so like actually trying to come up with statistical models that do the hard part of computing where humans are bad at, but also combining that with human domain knowledge, which like his prior knowledge, or prior expertise in that field. And it's like, actually a framework where you try to automate as much as possible. But you also try to keep the human trade off. Or arbitrage as you were saying, like, you need the eye of a pilot, where sometimes you do need the eye of a domain expert or the eye of the eye of a modeler to make sure that the model is giving you right answers, right answers. That makes sense, because it can make sense to the computer, but you actually know the world and live in it. And so you can actually see for the causal relationship, for instance, makes sense in in one direction and not another. And the computer cannot really do that for now at least. But so it's interesting because there is also these big debate in the stats community where you have like, let's say the full AI, a, you know, part where it was like, well, let's just look at correlations everywhere. And they just let the computer do everything. And we never saw much more like, Well, no, let's use the computer in a way more targeted way where it's extremely good at it. but still keep us in the loop. Because sometimes an often the model is going to see stupid stuff. And so we need to be there to guide it and make sure that it's actually doing something that we want to do, and answering the questions that we want it to answer. So it's funny, because like 3d parallel was what you're just saying, Yeah, that's

Unknown Speaker:

true, for sure. And there's an argument to be made that you could end up with maybe like 90%, of what fighter pilots do is almost being like, onboard consent switches, you know, like, he could say that you effectively could end up having a dude in the cockpit in the event of getting into a situation where it is required to have a feedback loop from a human rather than from a computer or a sensor or something. But for maybe most of those situations where you don't end up in such a dynamic situation like a dogfight, maybe the fighter pilot is quite there as a systems monitor or something, and effectively a consent switch, I think that could be quite possible as well, then probably the more near future, like maybe, you know, like, we're talking about, like, say, 100 years from now, maybe that would be certainly something that's much more likely to happen sooner. I'm not sure what happened way longer. But I could see something like that, maybe?

Unknown Speaker:

Yeah, for sure. And I mean, if you're a bit, like if you're dreaming of it, like when you were flying these planes, like the F 18. Was there like a particular, you know, in technical innovation? Where if you had no limit, you know, like you were like, oh, man, that'd be so good. So cool. If we had that stuff, it would help us so often. Yeah,

Unknown Speaker:are much more developed from:Unknown Speaker:

like that. Yeah, I see. Yeah. And he's there one. Like, before, I like to dive a bit more into the personal side of things. But before that, I'm wondering, like, if we do zoom a beat, would you say there is one biggest enemy when you're flying? That type of that type of engine. You talked about time you talked about like, you know, reaction time and so on, like, what beats they're like one beat thing that's my knees, your enemy and that kind of business?

Unknown Speaker:hat's on the ground and about:Unknown Speaker:

I see. Okay, let's take it to the personal side. other things because I am also interested like how it is to be a fighter pilot. So basically, he's like, our brain is extremely adaptable right there, he has this amazing ability to just adapt to its environment all the time. And so in the end, I'm wondering if this constant stream of adrenaline can in the end still become boring? Because, well, you're doing that every day. So yeah, to us, it's super weird. And that would be extremely unsettling at first. But then I'm wondering like, the schedule, like kind of boring and routine, or is it like, really always something that's almost completely new?

Unknown Speaker:

Yeah, that's a good question, for sure. And I found this surprising, actually, when I was doing it. So like, I'm just thinking, like, when I was on flight training, it was always interesting, when you started flying a new plane, it was fun when I started flying, something called the grabon. 20, which is a little piston powered plane is fun when I started flying, something called the Harvard or the T six Texan, the CT 155. Hawk, because the first jet I flew. And these things were always quite interesting, you could say, during the training phase, when you're learning new aircraft and being exposed to more and more type of tactical, flying learning to do this stuff alone. These you know, going from being you know, with an instructor in the back to doing a lot of these types of things. So that stuff was always really exciting. During the initial training phases. What was interesting is once I became a fighter pilot, I was still always training, but we're training kind of relatively the same mission sets just how to do them as a leader and sort of a follower, or maybe a leader of more airplanes, or whatever. But the actual tactics and stuff got to be somewhat the same and repetitive. And same with the flying itself. And I guess it makes sense. Because if you don't want to have to think in the air, like we talked about, then you probably want to repeat these things hundreds of times, so you have an instinct on what to do. So for that reason, it did get repetitive in the last, it's certainly lost the adrenaline, I mean, unless you're flying really low at like maybe a couple 100 feet over the ground, that can be pretty intense, generally, because you're always like a split quarter second away from hitting the ground and dying. So you got to keep your wits about you that always give me adrenaline. I remember when I first started flying, the first time I took off, I put it in afterburner, right, which is over 100% of the thrust, you know, it's and it pushed me You know, I put it in, put that afterburner and it kind of kicked me back in my seat on I'm controlling this plane going down the runway feeling like I'm in a rocket ship take off in this thing. And I go airborne through 200 knots, I'm already at 400 kilometers an hour going climbing out, still accelerating gears up. By the time that landing gear goes up, I'm over 600 kilometers are 789 100 cars. Very quick acceleration. And you know, and I remember like, first time I just standard the Hornet on end and went vertical right through right unrestricted climb up through 20,000 feet and just see this, the earth gets small below you and flip upside down and pull over. You know, these were cool experiences that I've had. And, you know, if you really think about what you're doing, it's exciting. But on the day to day you did, I did get used to it. And quite often I just end up in the cockpit stress thinking about what the tactics were on this mission for this training mission. And sometimes even being like swearing in the cockpit to myself if this stuff was like, Oh, Jesus, like, didn't can't believe I didn't do this. Right? It became very much, obviously a job you could say, which is what it was his career. To the point where I wasn't even thinking about the thrill of it any more. You could say, toward the end of my career, they needed somebody to go take a jet up and just test something out with it or whatever. I think it was the cabin pressurization system. And I was just in my last couple months flying and I was like, Yeah, I'll do it. And I took it this jet up. And they did I didn't need to do any tactics. They just asked me to go take it and see if the cabin pressurization work. So I took a jet didn't have any external fuel tanks on it. It was a clean jet is what we call it, so didn't have any extra weight. I put that thing in afterburner just went vertical after takeoff went up, you know, 30 40,000 feet and just kind of enjoyed myself was doing loops and rolls and I pushed it up to I think Mach 1.3 or something and put an afterburner into a dive. And that was a really fun experience. I enjoyed that estimate at the end. But overall, yeah, this was it became repetitive, for sure. On the day to day.

Unknown Speaker:

Yeah. And I mean, as you say, in a way it has to become repetitive because that way it becomes intuition. And that makes you a better pilot. So yeah, yeah, absolutely. That's one of the it's like a misaligned incentives where it's like, well, to become a really amazing pilot has to become second nature. But by becoming second nature, it becomes boring.

Unknown Speaker:

That's right, or at least not like crazy excitement. I wouldn't necessarily say boring, but certainly doesn't have the same thrill factor. You could say it was more I think you could say the excitement was replaced rather than with boredom was with stress. That's kind of what replaced it with and you know, needing to perform that kind of thing. So it was it is a little nuts to think about for sure.

Unknown Speaker:

Yeah, for sure. So I'm wondering like, in general, when you think about the whole pilot experienced DD change because you experienced 3d extreme conditions, and I guess that's a job where you're closer to death. Then in a lot of jobs, like, at least my job, because I don't think my computer is going to kill me anytime soon. It does happen sometimes, like my computer gets really mad sometimes. And like, I'm like, Oh, well, what's going on? But it's okay. It's not that dangerous. So I'm wondering actually, does that had DeGette? Did that change the way you're living your life right now? Did that whole experience? leave you with something that okay, now I'm living my life that way right now, because of the experience I had before.

Unknown Speaker:out it, I think, one in a few:Unknown Speaker:

for sure. No, that's definitely interesting. I can see like, what can give you confidence, but also, it can give you perspective and maybe helps you, you know, enjoy easier aspects of life where, well, I'm not gonna die with that stuff. So it's like, it's also peaceful, you know, considered to be to be more peaceful, like creating a company is well, less of a deadly endeavor. And that can be a good change of pace. Also.

Unknown Speaker:Jaw, Saskatchewan, population:Unknown Speaker:

ya know, completely innocent. And a me it's kind of the same in a way like I had to leave somewhere for a long time in my life and now not having to do that. It's like you embrace that freedom. For sure. Yeah, right.

Unknown Speaker:

It's a great feeling you choose to do it. It's

Unknown Speaker:

much more of a choice. Yeah, yeah. And so before asking you the traditional last two questions, I actually have another one, which is V, as you said, it's extremely, it's an extremely selective process to become a fighter pilot. So I'm sure I'm wondering is like, is that more of a technical difficulty or physical difficulty? is like, really, you know, like, trying to become a Navy SEAL? Where it's like, mainly physical stuff. And I and I mean, also morally or against, but but then fighter pilots? How where does the difficulty come from, you know, like, is it more technical, actually, which is like the flying techniques, and that's what discriminates among people. And so more generally, then, is there a piece of advice that you would give someone who wants to become a fighter pilot today? And maybe a piece of advice that you wish you had had when you were that young and trying to make it as a pilot?

Unknown Speaker:

Yeah, certainly. I mean, because I remember I was I was really going for law. On time, and I didn't really know any people. And yeah, it is certainly it's in the head. I mean, this this the whole challenge of being a fighter pilots in your head, that's like not but I don't mean like in your head as if as if it doesn't exist, I mean in your head doesn't, that's where the challenge is, it's in your brain and knowing a ridiculous amount of information that you're required to study in a closed vault room with, like, I don't know how many locks to get into, and the amount of time you have to put into learning the secret tactics or whatever. And so all these things, you need to learn ridiculous amounts of information about the aircraft, the systems, your weapons, the enemy's weapons, the enemy's tactics, your tactics, all these things, and then being able to put them into action in the air, when you're against time split second decision making, that needs to be based on instincts, which is based before that on the information, you know, so that's why it's so difficult. And it is very difficult. So I mean, it wasn't easy when I did it. So I don't know, like, yeah, what would I have liked as advice, I mean, maybe a little bit of a reality check. I guess, when I like, I'm happy I did it, certainly. But it would have been nice to know that, or somebody just be like, hey, just so you know, what you're getting into here, you're gonna live in some of the most undesirable places in the you know, in the country for time on end and, and sit in Windows with no rooms for hours on end until midnight on computer systems that you need to take the you know, do all kinds of security checks and stuff to get on. So you can study or whatever, and learn all these things and know all these things by heart so that you can maybe fly a couple hours a week, they would have been nice to know that ahead of time, I probably still would have done it. But it certainly was a little bit of a wake up call once I end up doing it. It's like why I spent two decades of my life to maybe do something cool. Something that has a lot of I guess you could say drawbacks to it in terms of lifestyle, you know what I mean? So the advice would be somebody given me a little bit of a wake up call on the lifestyle aspect of that job, because the lifestyle aspect of the job. It's not just the job, it's a life, it's a way of life, you know, at the age of 30, I realized that I wanted a different lifestyle, you could say and probably all my life, I've never really wanted the lifestyle that fighter pilot had. And I think I'm happy with how I did that. But certainly, lifestyle wasn't necessarily for me. And that's in part why I got out. So it'd been nice piece of advice, if that makes sense. So I could have really kind of considered that I guess beforehand. Yeah. Because a lot of work that I put towards something when then I did it for only three years. And I was like, Okay, I want to do something else, you know?

Unknown Speaker:

Yeah, no, I understand. And it does make a lot of sense. I wish I had that same advice. I think when I started, just me my first job was in, you know, government. And, and yeah, it was like, the main problem for me, here was the lifestyle too. So yeah, like, if someone had given me that advice would probably not have taken that route. So it will turn out well, in the end, but it's, it's for sure. It's something that's were valuable. And yeah, so I'm just thinking about something before closing up the show. Actually, you know, you were talking a lot about you go through contingencies when you're sitting on your couch at 01 G and zero knots. And that's actually super interesting. Because I'm so I'm really into social sciences, and I mean, behavioral sciences, and there is something called basically like that benefits of visualizations. And because like, for a while, we thought a lot that yeah, you have to visualize the positive stuff and like the positive scenarios only, because that way it will create the positive outcome. And actually, more and more the science on that is, well, no, you should visualize all the different scenarios and like, what you would do either scenario is a good one and how you would get there. But also if stuff if things go wrong, so the negative scenarios, because then you can prepare your mind and your brain at what it will do if if things go wrong. And, and that's interesting, because for instance, one of the the athletes that help scientists understand more of that is, I think it's Michael Phelps, where he was one of the first one to explain that, actually, he was visualizing his competitions, but also the negative parts of the competition. You know, like, what happens if I can, if I lose time at the beginning, when I dive, what happens if my attorneys wrong? What do I do in those cases, and so on. And some experiments were done based on that afterwards. And it seems to be actually extremely valuable to not only visualize the positive outcomes, but also the negative ones to prepare your brain on what to do and,

Unknown Speaker:about that when you're flying:Unknown Speaker:

yeah. Damn. Fascinating. Awesome. Jason, it's starting to get late for so I'm gonna be mindful of your time. So let's close up the show with the last two questions I ask every guest at the end of the show. First one is if you had unlimited time and resources, which program would you try to solve?

Unknown Speaker:

Yeah, you know, I think there's I don't know, if it's considered, oh, I guess death is considered a problem. So it is, for me at least. So my biggest one of my biggest fears is getting old and dying one day. So I understand that probably, if I say this, or you know, if you think about the practical aspects of everyone living forever, it wouldn't work, I get that. But I would like to live forever. And so if I could, unlimited time and resources into something, I would want to figure out how you can live forever, because there's so many things to do in this world, and so many things to be able to see. I mean, I realized this when I've been traveling, so many different aspects of business or different interesting fun activities, you could do it, it just feels like we don't have enough time, you know, and if we could just like not age, and not die of maybe, you know, getting old or something, maybe I guess he died from you know, eventually maybe getting something like getting a car accident or whatever, statistically, if you live long enough, but I think that'd be a that would interest me, I guess you could say, knowing that I'm sure there's people with that would criticize that based on the overall idea for the world maybe wouldn't be the good thing for 6 billion people to stay alive forever and continue to reproduce. But I like the idea of it.

Unknown Speaker:

Yeah, no main net would be I mean, that would make for great science fiction novels. You know, like, it's like, a living forever. But imagine you live forever. And like you still ah, honestly, I wouldn't want that you have the body composition of a 100 year old and you leave for millennia? Oh, my God.

Unknown Speaker:

Oh, God, that'd be horrible. Yeah, you

Unknown Speaker:

have to caveat a lot. But you could have science fiction novels, where it's like, well, you have eternal youth, you know, but you cannot reproduce. For instance. You know, things like that. You could make some fun scenarios. Yeah. I was gonna poke. I was gonna poke at your answer, because it was like, Wait, do you have unlimited time and research the resources to think about something? Doesn't that already mean that you've solved? Eternal life? is unlimited time means you already live forever. So like, you already so you don't?

Unknown Speaker:

Because you have unlimited time.

Unknown Speaker:

You already solved that problem. Yeah, yeah. You're already having limited time. So you're already terminal. True.

Unknown Speaker:

All I need to do is take you up on the offer. Yeah, yeah.

Unknown Speaker:

Yeah, I guess you're on so then it's like being young forever. Or at least being able to travel forever? Yeah. Call

Unknown Speaker:, for sure. Maybe after like,:Unknown Speaker:

Yeah. Yeah. Damn, that gives me ideas for some science fiction. So second question, if you could have dinner with any great scientific mind that alive or fictional? Who would it be?

Unknown Speaker:

That's an interesting one, too, because it's kind of cross answer, I'd say, because of two reasons. So it'd be Elon Musk. And the reason would be, I mean, I'm not exactly sure on his scientific background, but he certainly knows how to hire people who are scientific. And I'm sure he understands a good portion of what he's doing, because of the marvels of science that he's essentially it's happening under his watch. I mean, in terms of SpaceX and you know, the satellites he's doing and rockets and whatever. I think it's very interesting. The the type of aerospace engineering that's going on in the skies, a company I mean, in the engineering with Tesla, these tech, this guy is a pretty revolutionary dude. And he's certainly going to go down in history as a figure. He's already a figure but in the future, he'll even be more so of one of my opinion. And so he's got some pretty cool scientific stuff going on in his companies that I think are things that a lot of people didn't really realize could be possible maybe you could say, and on top of that, he's made lots of money doing it to be I think He's the richest man in the world or someone you know, he's got a lot of money obvious See, and he also is a very good businessman, obviously, because of his businesses are succeeding and in science. I mean, and what's interesting, what's different about this, I think is usually, in this type of scenario, usually science and exploration and science costs money, like you look at the NASA program and, and stuff like that, or whatever with the United States or whatever. And that all costs money to go to the moon and stuff like that. But this guy's making money off it. And I think that's pretty impressive. So I'd like to chat with him about it.

Unknown Speaker:

Yeah. Sounds like an interesting dinner. Well, Elon is actually one of the fans of the show, so he'll probably reach out after this episode airs. Make sure to invite me Can't wait. Thanks. Hello, Jason. I mean, I could still talk a lot like it. This is a fascinating topic. I'm really happy to have like, done these episodes to be the fresh air. Still a bit of stats and a lot of nerdy things. But let's go to some fresh new topics in the podcast from time to time. I hope the listeners have enjoyed it. Reach out if you liked it, if you didn't like it. Also, that's always interesting. And as usual, I put resources and a link to your website in the show notes for those who want to dig deeper. Thank you again, Jason, for taking the time and being on the show.

Unknown Speaker:

Yeah. Thanks, buddy. Thanks for the conversation.

Unknown Speaker:

This has been another episode of Herning patient statistics. Be sure to rate review and subscribe to the show on your favorite but get your orange chaser and vz turn base stats dumped for more resources based on today's topics, as well as access to more episodes that will help you reach your true reach instead of mine. Let's learn based test that our theme music is good Bayesian by Brinkman, MC Lars and Megaera check out his awesome word, Bebo brinkman.com. I'm your host, Alex and you can follow me on Twitter at Alex underscore Andorra country. You can support the show and unlock Susy benefits by visiting patreon.com/learn aistech. Thanks so much for listening and for your support. You're truly a

Unknown Speaker:

good Bayesian change your predictions after taking information and if you'd be less than, less than just those expectations. Let me show you how to be a good Bayesian change calculations after taking

Unknown Speaker:

those predictions that your brain is let's get the solid foundation

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